Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The Portland Fire visit the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tipoff scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Portland is 14-20, fifth in the Western Conference and 13.5 games behind Minnesota. The Fire are 6-10 on the road and have won three of their last four after Friday’s 84-82 victory at Seattle. Phoenix is 13-22, sixth in the Western Conference and 15 games behind Minnesota. The Mercury are 5-10 at home and 2-3 over their last five after Tuesday’s 94-87 win over Los Angeles. Phoenix won the first meeting 78-72. Be a winner with our free WNBA picks.

Portland Fire Look to Continue Recent Success

Portland averages 86.8 points while shooting 45.4% from the field and 35.3% from three-point range. The Fire have scored at least 81 points in five straight games, including 100 against Seattle and 97 against Toronto. Carla Leite leads Portland with 15.5 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 44.4%. Bridget Carleton adds 14.7 points and 4.4 rebounds, while Megan DiLeo averages 12.8 points and shoots 54.3%. Portland has won three of its last four.

Defense remains Portland’s main concern, with the Fire allowing 91.6 points per game. Opponents shoot 47.0% from the field against Portland and average 23.5 assists, while the Fire surrender 33.6 rebounds. Portland has allowed 82 or more points in each of its last five games, including 106 against Los Angeles and 93 against Seattle. The Fire average 7.4 steals and 3.7 blocks but commit 14.5 turnovers per contest. 

Injuries: Portland will play without Luisa Geiselsoder, Sarah Ashlee Barker and Sania Feagin.

Phoenix Mercury Seek Consecutive Home Wins

Phoenix averages 83.9 points while shooting 44.4% from the field and 32.2% from three-point range. Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury with 20.6 points while shooting 43.3%, making her the main scoring threat. Alyssa Thomas contributes 14.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 8.2 assists, giving Phoenix production in several areas. DeWanna Bonner adds 10.2 points and 6.0 rebounds. Phoenix scored 94 against Los Angeles Tuesday after being held below 83 in three consecutive losses.

The Mercury allow 87.4 points per game, with opponents shooting 46.3% from the field and 36.5% from three-point range. Phoenix averages 7.3 steals and 3.3 blocks while allowing 34.1 rebounds. The Mercury have held two of their last five opponents below 80 points, including Connecticut at 75 and Washington at 95 in a loss. 

Injuries: Phoenix will be without Kelsey Plum, who is out with a calf injury, along with Kara Dunn and Jovana Nogic.

Key Player Matchup

Carla Leite vs Alyssa Thomas

Leite drives Portland’s offense with 15.5 points and 6.2 assists while shooting 44.4% from the field and 89.0% at the foul line. Thomas brings a broader stat line for Phoenix, averaging 14.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 51.4%. Portland needs Leite to create scoring chances without adding heavily to her 3.4 turnovers per game. Thomas can influence the matchup through passing and rebounding, especially against a Portland team averaging only 29.9 rebounds.

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Game Pick

• Portland Fire +5.5

Portland +5.5 is the game pick because the Fire enter with stronger recent form and the better scoring average. Portland has won three of its last four while averaging 86.8 points for the season, compared with Phoenix at 83.9. The Fire also shoot better from the field and from three-point range. Phoenix won the first meeting by six, but Plum is unavailable Sunday. With Portland scoring at least 81 in five straight games, the Fire have enough offense to remain inside the 5.5-point spread.

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Over/Under Pick

• Over 176.5

Over 176.5 is the total pick because Portland’s recent games have consistently produced scoring opportunities. The Fire have scored at least 81 points in five straight while allowing 82 or more in every game during that stretch. Portland allows 91.6 points per contest, while Phoenix gives up 87.4. The Mercury also scored 94 in their latest game against Los Angeles. Even without Plum, Copper and Thomas provide Phoenix with scoring and creation. Those defensive numbers give this matchup enough room to cash above 176.5 points.