Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC Seattle Storm (23-21) vs. Las Vegas Aces (30-14)
The first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs continues Thursday, September 18, with the Seattle Storm taking on the Las Vegas Aces in a win-or-go-home Game 3 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV, and we’ve got you covered with our Storm vs. Aces prediction.
After suffering a heavy 102-77 defeat in Game 1 in Las Vegas, the Storm upset the Aces in front of the home fans, grabbing an 86-83 victory in Game 2. The teams split a four-game series in the regular season.
Read more about this Seattle vs. Las Vegas prediction, and check out all our WNBA picks for Thursday’s card. The tip-off at Michelob ULTRA Arena is set at 9:30 PM ET. The Aces are 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 159.0 points.
The Storm erased a 14-point deficit in Game 2
The No. 7 Seattle Storm were on the verge of elimination last Tuesday. With 2:05 left in the third quarter, the Storm were down 67-53, and with 7:06 remaining in the fourth, Seattle trailed Las Vegas by 12 points.
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The Storm outscored the Aces 25-14 in the final 10 minutes. Skylar Diggins led the way for Seattle with 26 points and seven assists, and Nneka Ogwumike had 24 points and 10 rebounds. Diggins went 4-for-6 from downtown, while Ogwumike made four of her five shots from beyond the arc.
Seattle shot 45.8% from the field in Game 2. The Storm went 10-for-20 from deep and 10-for-12 from the foul line while posting a 22/10 assist-to-turnover ratio. They outrebounded the Aces 32-29 on the night, which was a huge factor in Seattle’s victory.
Back in Game 1, the Storm allowed 11 offensive rebounds and handed out just 15 assists. Diggins had 12 points and two assists, and Ogwumike added 11 points and eight boards. The Storm scored just 25 points in the first half and never really stood a chance of upsetting the odds.
The Aces hope for a bounce-back performance
The No. 2 Las Vegas Aces put an end to their 17-game winning streak last Tuesday. As I noted above, the Aces had a commanding lead in the fourth quarter of Game 2, but they collapsed down the stretch.
Las Vegas made 50.0% of its field goals last Tuesday (7-for-19 from deep). However, the Aces missed nine of their 29 shots from the foul line and committed five more turnovers than their rivals. Moreover, the Aces posted just five offensive rebounds.
Jackie Young led the way for the Aces in Game 2, notching 25 points, five rebounds, and four assists. A’ja Wilson posted her 22nd playoff double-double with 21 points and 13 boards, but missed five of her 11 attempts from the charity stripe.
Wilson dominated the Storm in Game 1, tallying 29 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes on the floor. The Aces went 14-for-29 from beyond the 3-point line and outrebounded the Storm 39-34 while recording 10 steals and 10 turnovers.
Storm vs. Aces Pick
Spread Pick for Storm vs. Aces
- Aces -7.5 (5 units)
The Aces should have learned the lesson. They dominated the Storm for 33 minutes of Game 2 but couldn’t finish the job. Now, the Aces have another chance in front of the home fans, and I expect them to deliver.
Frankly, the Aces are a better team than the Storm. Las Vegas’ defense has improved a lot over the last few weeks, and the Aces will do a much better job on Skylar Diggins this time around. The Storm cannot contain A’ja Wilson, who will have another monster performance, so I’m backing the Aces to win and cover.
Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall and 6-2 ATS in its previous eight outings at home. On the other side, Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests overall and 3-6 ATS in its previous nine showings on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Storm vs. Aces
- Over 159.0 (5 units)
The Storm love to play fast and push the ball in transition. However, they’ve struggled on the glass for most of the season. The Storm are a solid defensive team, but they can’t contain A’ja Wilson, and the Aces will have a ton of open looks from deep once more.
Hereof, I’m taking the over on the total. Eight of the Storm’s last 10 road games have gone over. Also, the over is 5-1 in the last six encounters between Seattle and Las Vegas, and five of those six games have produced way more than 159 points in total.
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