Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026

Today's Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun picks for Thursday, September 24, 2026, come from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville. Toronto enters at 11-32 after a 97-85 loss to Chicago, while Connecticut is 10-33 after a 79-69 road loss to Washington.

Connecticut is a small home favorite, with the market trading between -1.5 and -2.5, while the best current total has dropped into the 167.5 range. Bettors reviewing Thursday's WNBA picks are getting a lower Over entry than the 169 shown on the early afternoon board. The available WNBA player props also need to account for two injury-thinned rotations before the 7:00 PM EDT tipoff.

Best Available Odds for Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun

• Spread: Toronto Tempo +2.5 | Connecticut Sun -2.5
• Total: 167.5

Game Info

• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM EDT
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Connecticut
• TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Boston, TSN
• Key Availability: Toronto is without Temi Fagbenle, Marina Mabrey, Brittney Sykes and Aneesah Morrow, while Maria Conde is questionable. Connecticut is without Saniya Rivers, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Brittney Griner and Kennedy Burke.

Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun Preview

The final regular-season game for both teams carries more emotion than the standings suggest.

Connecticut is playing its final home game in Uncasville, closing an important chapter for the franchise at Mohegan Sun Arena. That setting should create a more energetic environment than a normal matchup between two eliminated teams.

Toronto has its own reason to play aggressively. The Tempo are trying to finish their inaugural season with a positive result after a difficult closing stretch that includes seven consecutive losses.

The roster limitations are severe, but Toronto has still found ways to score.

Isabelle Harrison led the Tempo with 21 points against Chicago on Tuesday, while Laura Juskaite added 20. Toronto reached 85 points despite missing several of its most important creators.

Kiki Rice has also taken on a larger role throughout the second half of the season. With Mabrey and Sykes unavailable, Rice has to create more offense off the dribble and get Toronto into the paint before the defense can settle.

Connecticut is dealing with an equally short rotation.

The Sun are without Griner and Nelson-Ododa inside, while Rivers and Burke are also unavailable. That puts additional offensive responsibility on Diamond Miller, Aaliyah Edwards, Raegan Beers and Leila Lacan.

Miller scored 19 against Washington on Tuesday. Beers and Lacan each added 11, while Edwards controlled the glass with 13 rebounds.

The final result was only 79-69, but Connecticut's recent home games have shown more offensive potential than that one road performance suggests.

The season series is the strongest argument for expecting more scoring Thursday.

Toronto has won both previous meetings. The Tempo won 106-102 in the first matchup and 101-97 in the second.

Those games produced 208 and 198 combined points.

The current rosters are more depleted than they were during those earlier meetings, so it would be aggressive to project another game near 200. The key is that Thursday's betting total does not require anything close to that level.

Toronto is 24-17 O/U in the current season data, one of the strongest Over records in the league. Connecticut is 22-21 O/U, much closer to neutral.

That creates a clear directional advantage toward Toronto's scoring profile without needing Connecticut to carry the entire wager.

The market has also improved the entry.

The total opened around 168.5 and appeared at 169 on the early afternoon reference board. Current prices have traded as low as 167.5.

That movement gives Over bettors between one and one and a half points of additional protection.

The spread has been less decisive. Connecticut opened around -1.5 and has moved between -1.5 and -2.5, which is appropriate for two teams separated by only one win.

Neither side has a strong full-season ATS profile. Toronto is 17-21 ATS, while Connecticut is 20-23.

Matchup Breakdown

The WNBA betting trends point more clearly toward the total than the side.

Toronto has gone Over in 24 of 41 graded games. Connecticut has been essentially balanced, but the Sun's missing frontcourt depth can create problems on both ends.

Without Griner and Nelson-Ododa, Connecticut loses interior size and defensive rebounding. Toronto can attack that weakness through Harrison and Rice, creating more paint touches and second-chance opportunities.

The same absences also make Connecticut more perimeter-oriented offensively. Miller and Lacan should handle more creation, and that can increase pace if the Sun look to attack before Toronto's defense is fully organized.

Toronto's defense has not been reliable enough to assume a low-scoring game simply because both teams are missing players.

The Tempo allowed 97 to Chicago on Tuesday, 106 to New York on Sunday and 103 to Indiana before that.

Connecticut is not as explosive as those opponents, but the Sun do not need to score 90 for the Over to be live.

A game in the mid-80s on both sides clears the current total.

The emotional setting can also matter. Connecticut's final home appearance is unlikely to look like a low-energy exhibition. The Sun should push their available players, while Toronto has little reason to play cautiously in the final game of its first season.

The main risk is efficiency. Both teams can go through long stretches without a dependable shot creator, and the missing personnel raises the chance of empty possessions.

The price compensates for that risk. At 167.5, the Over no longer needs an exceptional offensive performance.

Game Thesis: Toronto's full-season Over profile is the strongest statistical signal in the matchup, both earlier meetings cleared this number comfortably and the market has reduced the total from the early 168.5-169 range. Over 167.5 is the preferred wager.

Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun Best Bet - Total: Over 167.5

The lower current number creates the value.

Toronto is 24-17 O/U and has continued producing respectable offense even with several high-usage players unavailable.

Connecticut has enough scoring through Miller, Edwards, Beers and Lacan to contribute its share against a Tempo defense that has struggled throughout the closing stretch.

The first two meetings reached 208 and 198 points. Thursday does not need to resemble either shootout.

An 85-83 type of game is enough to clear 167.5, and the final-home-game environment should keep both teams engaged through the fourth quarter.

Over 167.5 is the strongest position.

Prediction: Toronto Tempo 86, Connecticut Sun 83