World Cup Betting Trends
The 2026 World Cup semifinals are set. All four quarterfinals are complete: France beat Morocco 2-0, Spain beat Belgium 2-1, Argentina advanced past Switzerland after a 1-1 regulation draw, and England advanced past Norway after a 1-1 regulation draw. The chalk favorites went 2-0-2 outright in regulation, extending Favorite double-chance to a perfect 4-0 in the QFs and lifting the historical Draw 1X2 trend back to positive across every since-window. Semifinal matchups: France vs England, and Spain vs Argentina.
The historical betting trends database covers 420 completed World Cup matches from 2006 through the 2026 group stage, full Round of 32, Round of 16, and Quarterfinals. A separate knockout-only dataset covers 108 World Cup knockout matches Since 2006, including the 28 R32, R16, and QF matches played in 2026.
World Cup Knockout Stage Trends
The knockout-only dataset covers 108 World Cup knockout matches Since 2006 — Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, finals, third-place matches, and the 28 R32, R16, and QF matches played in 2026. Thirty-five of 108 matches (32.4%) have ended level after 90 minutes, keeping Draw 1X2 as the strongest knockout angle in the database at +18.8% ROI Since 2006 — a significant jump from +14.2% before the two QF draws hit.
| Market | Since 2006 | Since 2010 | Since 2014 | Since 2018 | Since 2022 | Since 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw 1X2 | +18.8% ROI | +18.9% ROI | +26.6% ROI | +7.6% ROI | +8.6% ROI | +6.2% ROI |
| BTTS Yes | +4.7% ROI | +11.4% ROI | +8.5% ROI | +20.8% ROI | +18.7% ROI | +14.5% ROI |
| Fav DC | +2.0% ROI | +3.6% ROI | +4.7% ROI | +5.3% ROI | +6.7% ROI | +3.4% ROI |
| 1H Over 1.5 | -2.8% ROI | -4.6% ROI | -4.9% ROI | +4.8% ROI | -4.8% ROI | -39.4% ROI |
| 2H Under 0.5 | -1.5% ROI | -12.4% ROI | -1.6% ROI | -34.2% ROI | -33.6% ROI | -57.0% ROI |
Three markets remain consistently positive in every since-window of the knockout-only sample — Draw 1X2, BTTS Yes, and Favorite double-chance — and all three are positive in the 2026 KO sample as well. Draw 1X2 recovered from -13.7% to +6.2% in 2026 KO after Argentina-Switzerland and Norway-England both ended level in regulation. BTTS Yes is at a strong +14.5% ROI in 2026 KO (16-12).
Two markets remain deeply disrupted by the 2026 KO sample. 1H Over 1.5 is 5-23 in 2026 KO (-39.4% ROI). 2H Under 0.5 is 3-25 in 2026 KO (-57.0% ROI). Both continue to go against the historical knockout script.
The markets to fade in knockouts remain consistent. The underdog moneyline is -44.1% ROI Since 2006 (16-92 outright in 108 matches, including 3-25 in 2026 KO after dogs went winless across all four QFs). Favorite -1.5 sits at -22.3% Since 2006 (7-21 in 2026 KO after only 1 of 4 QFs covered). Over 3.5 is at -22.1% Since 2006 (4-24 in 2026 KO).
Quarterfinal Recap and Semifinal Preview
The QF played out with two clean regulation results and two regulation draws that went to extra time or penalties. France 2-0 Morocco and Spain 2-1 Belgium were straightforward chalk wins. Argentina-Switzerland went 1-1 in regulation with Argentina advancing 3-1 in extra time. Norway-England went 1-1 in regulation with England winning 2-1 in extra time.
The pattern held on the historical knockout script even where the surface results looked different. Fav DC went 4-0 in the QFs (all favorites either won or drew in regulation). Draw 1X2 hit twice for +138.9% ROI in the QF sample. Under 3.5 hit all four QFs. The dog moneyline stayed at 0 — all four underdogs failed to win outright in regulation.
Semifinal matchups: France vs England (both R16 winners advancing chalk through their QFs) and Spain vs Argentina (both R16 winners advancing chalk through their QFs). All four semifinalists were pre-tournament favorites to reach this stage — the R16 upsets by Norway, Belgium, and Switzerland all cleared out in the QFs, leaving the top-tier chalk to fight it out.
The trends heading into the semifinals:
Favorite DC remains the cleanest knockout angle. The 2026 KO record is 25-3 (89.3%), and the historical ROI is positive across every since-window. Whichever favorite the semi produces, this is the model's go-to leg.
BTTS Yes has been strong through 28 KO matches (16-12, +14.5% ROI) and the semis feature two matches with real firepower on both sides. Both France and England, and Spain and Argentina, average multiple goals per match in 2026.
Draw 1X2 has recovered dramatically with the two QF draws and is now positive across every historical window. Semifinals often see cagey regulation play, particularly in matches like these where the talent gap is narrow.
Under 3.5 has been dominant in 2026 KO (24-4, +20.0% ROI). The knockout stage has been consistently low-scoring outside a small handful of matches.
Dog 1X2 remains off-limits as a default. The 2026 KO dog moneyline is 3-25 at -58.8% ROI. Only Norway, Belgium, and Switzerland delivered outright regulation wins in R16 — and all three eventually lost in the following round.
2026 World Cup Trends Through 100 Matches
The full 2026 sample now spans 100 matches: 72 group-stage, 16 R32, 8 R16, and 4 QF. Draws remain the loudest market signal: 27 of 100 matches (27.0%) have ended level, banking +25.45 units on Draw 1X2 wagers at an average price of 4.92 for a +25.5% ROI. BTTS Yes sits at +11.4% ROI, Over 3.5 at +6.7% ROI. Favorite 1X2 has cooled to +0.6% after Argentina and England drew in regulation before advancing.
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | Avg Price | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw 1X2 | 100 | 27-73 | 27.0% | 4.92 | +25.45 | +25.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 100 | 55-45 | 55.0% | 2.08 | +11.40 | +11.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 100 | 33-67 | 33.0% | 3.49 | +6.68 | +6.7% |
| Fav 1X2 | 100 | 64-36 | 64.0% | 1.68 | +0.61 | +0.6% |
| Dog DC | 100 | 36-64 | 36.0% | 3.05 | -5.94 | -5.9% |
| 2H Under 0.5 | 100 | 19-81 | 19.0% | 4.67 | -13.88 | -13.9% |
| Dog 1X2 | 100 | 9-91 | 9.0% | 8.38 | -63.39 | -63.4% |
The dog moneyline result remains historic — 9-91 outright at -63.4% ROI is the worst single-tournament dog 1X2 sample on record.
Long-Term Trends: Since 2010
The since-2010 cut covers four completed tournaments plus 2026 to date. First-half Under 0.5 leads at +16.15 units and +4.5% ROI. Dog 1X2 sits at +13.37 units (+3.8% ROI), Draw 1X2 at +10.39 units (+2.9% ROI), dog double-chance at +9.39 units (+2.6% ROI), BTTS Yes at +8.94 units (+2.5% ROI), and 2H Over 1.5 at +8.67 units (+2.4% ROI).
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | Avg Price | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H Under 0.5 | 356 | 129-227 | 36.2% | 2.96 | +16.15 | +4.5% |
| Dog 1X2 | 356 | 69-287 | 19.4% | 7.07 | +13.37 | +3.8% |
| Draw 1X2 | 356 | 91-265 | 25.6% | 4.31 | +10.39 | +2.9% |
| Dog DC | 356 | 160-196 | 44.9% | 2.62 | +9.39 | +2.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 356 | 177-179 | 49.7% | 2.08 | +8.94 | +2.5% |
| 2H Over 1.5 | 356 | 167-189 | 46.9% | 2.23 | +8.67 | +2.4% |
| 1H Under 1.5 | 356 | 254-102 | 71.3% | 1.44 | +7.02 | +2.0% |
| Dog +1.5 | 356 | 251-105 | 70.5% | 1.53 | +2.50 | +0.7% |
| Fav DC | 356 | 287-69 | 80.6% | 1.20 | -17.14 | -4.8% |
| Fav -1.5 | 356 | 105-251 | 29.5% | 3.40 | -66.08 | -18.6% |
Long-Term Trends: Since 2014
The since-2014 cut covers three completed tournaments plus 2026. First-half Under 0.5 leads at +16.69 units (+5.7% ROI), 2H Over 1.5 at +15.37 units (+5.3% ROI). BTTS Yes sits at +10.15 units (+3.5% ROI) and Draw 1X2 has climbed to +7.71 units (+2.6% ROI) with the QF draws. Dog double-chance flipped back to positive at +0.1%.
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | Avg Price | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H Under 0.5 | 292 | 105-187 | 36.0% | 3.03 | +16.69 | +5.7% |
| 2H Over 1.5 | 292 | 142-150 | 48.6% | 2.21 | +15.37 | +5.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 292 | 149-143 | 51.0% | 2.05 | +10.15 | +3.5% |
| Draw 1X2 | 292 | 73-219 | 25.0% | 4.42 | +7.71 | +2.6% |
| 1H Under 1.5 | 292 | 208-84 | 71.2% | 1.43 | +3.19 | +1.1% |
| Dog DC | 292 | 126-166 | 43.2% | 2.68 | +0.24 | +0.1% |
| Dog 1X2 | 292 | 53-239 | 18.2% | 7.20 | -11.43 | -3.9% |
| Fav DC | 292 | 239-53 | 81.8% | 1.20 | -10.47 | -3.6% |
| Fav 1X2 | 292 | 166-126 | 56.8% | 1.79 | -13.52 | -4.6% |
| Fav -1.5 | 292 | 94-198 | 32.2% | 3.33 | -35.28 | -12.1% |
Long-Term Trends: Since 2018
The since-2018 sample tightens to two completed tournaments plus 2026. BTTS Yes leads at +11.35 units (+5.0% ROI). 2H Over 1.5 at +6.97 units (+3.1% ROI), 1H Under 0.5 at +6.50 units (+2.9% ROI). Draw 1X2 recovered back to positive at +1.1% ROI with the QF draws.
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | Avg Price | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 228 | 117-111 | 51.3% | 2.08 | +11.35 | +5.0% |
| 2H Over 1.5 | 228 | 109-119 | 47.8% | 2.22 | +6.97 | +3.1% |
| 1H Under 0.5 | 228 | 80-148 | 35.1% | 3.03 | +6.50 | +2.9% |
| Draw 1X2 | 228 | 56-172 | 24.6% | 4.48 | +2.61 | +1.1% |
| 1H Under 1.5 | 228 | 161-67 | 70.6% | 1.43 | +1.38 | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 228 | 172-56 | 75.4% | 1.34 | +0.85 | +0.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 228 | 168-60 | 73.7% | 1.38 | -1.03 | -0.5% |
| Fav 1X2 | 228 | 135-93 | 59.2% | 1.76 | -4.40 | -1.9% |
| Dog DC | 228 | 93-135 | 40.8% | 2.75 | -5.63 | -2.5% |
| Dog 1X2 | 228 | 37-191 | 16.2% | 7.49 | -14.78 | -6.5% |
| Fav -1.5 | 228 | 79-149 | 34.6% | 3.26 | -18.71 | -8.2% |
Long-Term Trends: Since 2022
The since-2022 sample is the most recent full-tournament cut plus 2026. Draw 1X2 leads at +14.63 units and +8.9% ROI — a big jump from +5.8% before the QF draws. BTTS Yes sits at +9.58 units (+5.8% ROI), 2H Over 1.5 at +3.84 units (+2.3% ROI), 1H Under 0.5 at +3.60 units (+2.2% ROI). Dog 1X2 continues at -14.9% and BTTS No remains the worst non-favorite wager at -17.2%.
| Market | Bets | Record | Win % | Avg Price | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw 1X2 | 164 | 42-122 | 25.6% | 4.65 | +14.63 | +8.9% |
| BTTS Yes | 164 | 85-79 | 51.8% | 2.08 | +9.58 | +5.8% |
| 2H Over 1.5 | 164 | 80-84 | 48.8% | 2.16 | +3.84 | +2.3% |
| 1H Under 0.5 | 164 | 56-108 | 34.1% | 3.12 | +3.60 | +2.2% |
| 1H Under 1.5 | 164 | 115-49 | 70.1% | 1.46 | +2.93 | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 164 | 49-115 | 29.9% | 3.60 | -1.19 | -0.7% |
| Dog DC | 164 | 66-98 | 40.2% | 2.85 | -1.87 | -1.1% |
| Fav -1.5 | 164 | 63-101 | 38.4% | 3.11 | -8.35 | -5.1% |
| Dog 1X2 | 164 | 24-140 | 14.6% | 7.72 | -24.45 | -14.9% |
| BTTS No | 164 | 79-85 | 48.2% | 1.77 | -28.15 | -17.2% |
Trends to Fade for World Cup Wagers
Four popular wagers have lost money across every long-term horizon. These are the costliest defaults a World Cup bettor can fall into.
| Market to Fade | Since 2010 | Since 2014 | Since 2018 | Since 2022 | Since 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav -1.5 | -18.6% ROI | -12.1% ROI | -8.2% ROI | -5.1% ROI | -8.3% ROI |
| Over 3.5 | -8.7% ROI | -7.4% ROI | -7.9% ROI | -0.7% ROI | +6.7% ROI |
| Fav DC | -4.8% ROI | -3.6% ROI | -2.1% ROI | -1.2% ROI | +4.1% ROI |
| BTTS No | -12.1% ROI | -14.1% ROI | -15.8% ROI | -17.2% ROI | -22.5% ROI |
The 2026 column shows how the historical fades have behaved across the full tournament. Over 3.5 is at +6.7% ROI on the goal-heavy group stage though cooled by the low-scoring knockouts. Favorite DC is at +4.1%. Favorite -1.5 slipped further to -8.3% after only 1 of the 4 QF matches covered. BTTS No remains a clean fade at -22.5% ROI.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best World Cup knockout trend?
Draw 1X2 is the strongest historical knockout angle at +18.8% ROI Since 2006. Thirty-five of 108 knockout matches (32.4%) have ended level after 90 minutes, and the 1X2 market settles on the regulation result. Draw 1X2 is positive in every historical since-window and recovered to +6.2% in the 2026 KO sample after the two QF regulation draws.
What World Cup market should I fade in knockouts?
The underdog moneyline. Dog 1X2 is -44.1% ROI in knockout matches (16-92 outright in 108 games, including 3-25 in the 2026 KO sample after dogs went winless across all four QFs). Favorite -1.5, BTTS No, Over 3.5, and No Draw are also clean knockout fades.
Who is in the 2026 World Cup semifinals?
France vs England and Spain vs Argentina. France beat Morocco 2-0 in the QFs; England beat Norway 2-1 in extra time after a 1-1 regulation draw; Spain beat Belgium 2-1; Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 in extra time after a 1-1 regulation draw. All four semifinalists were pre-tournament top-tier favorites.
How did the quarterfinals play out?
Chalk with a twist. All four favorites either won or drew in regulation, keeping Fav DC perfect at 4-0 in the QFs. France and Spain won outright in regulation; Argentina and Norway-England both went to regulation draws that resolved in extra time. Draw 1X2 hit twice for the QF sample. Under 3.5 hit all four matches. The dog moneyline went 0-4 outright.
How are knockout trends different from group-stage trends?
Knockout matches end in draws after 90 minutes far more often than group games (32.4% versus 25%), which makes Draw 1X2 the strongest historical knockout angle at +18.8% ROI Since 2006. The underdog moneyline collapses from a +3.8% Since 2010 long-term trend to -44.1% ROI in knockouts as dogs are 16-92 outright in 108 knockout matches. BTTS Yes and Favorite double-chance flip from group-stage fades to knockout positives.
How has the 2026 World Cup unfolded so far?
The 2026 World Cup has produced an extreme chalk run in group play, a mostly-chalk R32 with 5 regulation draws, a chaotic R16 with three dog upsets, chalk QFs, and now a semifinal lineup of France, England, Spain, and Argentina. Through 100 matches, favorites are 64-9-27 outright, underdogs are 9-91 on the moneyline (-63.4% ROI), and draws have hit in 27 of 100 matches (27.0%). Draw 1X2 leads all markets at +25.5% ROI on the full 2026 sample.
How often is this World Cup betting trends page updated?
Daily during the tournament. Each completed match adds to the model overnight, the tables refresh, and the strongest active angles feed the daily World Cup predictions and match previews on Winners and Whiners.
What is the methodology behind this page?
The model tracks 24 league-wide markets across 420 completed World Cup matches from 2006 onward, with average decimal opening prices recorded for each match. Units are calculated at a 1-unit flat stake on every qualifying wager. ROI is units returned divided by units risked. Each historical cut is a true subset of the larger sample, not a separate model. The knockout-only section restricts the sample to the 108 Round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal, final, third-place, and 2026 R32/R16/QF matches.
