Paraguay vs Australia Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Use Code WWWC Paraguay and Australia meet at Levi’s Stadium on Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET with second place in Group D available. Both teams have three points. Australia beat Türkiye 2-0 before losing 2-0 to USA, while Paraguay lost 4-1 to USA and defeated Türkiye 1-0. Australia guarantees progression with a draw, and Paraguay may also advance with a point depending on the third-place table. The latest World Cup betting trends reward draws, while both team histories strongly support a low total.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Match Result Pick: Draw, around +114 to +124
- Total Goals Pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Both Teams to Score Pick: No
- Projected Final Score: Paraguay 0, Australia 0
Paraguay vs Australia Odds and Line Movement
| Market | Paraguay | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +180 to +190 | +114 to +124 | +240 to +285 |
| Spread | -0.5 | N/A | +0.5 |
| Total 1.5 | Over -154 to -160 / Under +124 to +125 | ||
The draw is unusually short near +120 because the standings can reward both teams for avoiding defeat. Paraguay is a slight favorite between +180 and +190, while Australia is available above +240.
The total is only 1.5, with the over carrying heavy juice. That market expects one or two goals but gives serious weight to a scoreless draw. Under 2.5 offers the better balance because it also covers a 1-0 or 1-1 result.
Both Teams Have Reasons to Protect the Match
Australia knows a draw guarantees advancement. Tony Popovic has insisted that his team will play to win, but tactical risk usually changes when the scoreboard remains level deep into the second half.
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Jacob Italiano is out with an adductor injury, while Mathew Leckie remains sidelined by a hamstring problem. Those absences reduce Australia’s width and attacking experience, increasing the likelihood of another compact defensive setup.
Paraguay is without Miguel Almirón after his red card against Türkiye. Almirón is the team’s most dangerous transition runner and a major source of chance creation. Julio Enciso must carry more of the attacking burden.
Gustavo Alfaro’s team showed it can protect a narrow advantage after playing most of the Türkiye match with 10 men. Paraguay is comfortable defending its penalty area and slowing the tempo when the result is favorable.
Cooling breaks may reinforce the cautious rhythm by giving both coaches additional opportunities to reset shape. In a match where one mistake can decide qualification, those pauses favor organization over sustained attacking momentum.
2026 World Cup Trends
Draws are 14-40 for +24.07 units and remain the strongest match-result market. Favorite moneylines have improved, but neither team is priced as a clear favorite in this near coin-flip matchup.
Over 2.5 is 30-24 overall, yet the team-specific evidence is much stronger for the under. All four combined matches involving Paraguay and Australia have stayed under 2.5.
Historical Team Trends
Nine of Paraguay’s 10 World Cup matches since 2006 stayed under 2.5, while eight produced BTTS No. Paraguay also drew three of seven matches since 2010.
Australia’s two 2026 matches both stayed under 2.5 and produced BTTS No. Eight of Australia’s nine matches since 2018 stayed under 3.5, while six stayed under 2.5.
Paraguay vs Australia Picks
Draw: Australia guarantees qualification with a point, while a draw may also be enough for Paraguay. The short price still reflects the strongest game-state outcome.
Under 2.5 goals: Both teams have played two unders, Paraguay is missing Almirón, and Australia has two attacking or wide players unavailable.
Both Teams to Score No: A 0-0 or 1-0 result fits the tactical incentives. Neither side should commit numbers forward while the match remains level.
Final Score Prediction
Paraguay 0, Australia 0. The match becomes increasingly cautious after halftime, and both teams protect the point rather than exposing themselves to a decisive counterattack.
How to Bet Paraguay vs Australia
The draw is the preferred result wager. Under 2.5 is the strongest total, while BTTS No offers another route to the same low-event script. Compare late prices through the World Cup odds page, review the complete slate in our World Cup best bets, and return to the World Cup predictions hub.
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