Türkiye vs USA Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Use Code WWWC Türkiye and the United States meet at SoFi Stadium on Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET. USA has secured first place after beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0. Türkiye is eliminated after losing 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay despite producing 65 total attempts. The latest World Cup betting trends continue to reward draws, while USA’s planned rotation removes much of the value from the short favorite price.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Match Result Pick: Draw, around +300 to +335
- Match Handicap Pick: Türkiye +0.5, around -119
- Total Goals Pick: Under 3.5 goals
- Projected Final Score: Türkiye 1, USA 1
Türkiye vs USA Odds and Line Movement
| Market | Türkiye | Draw | USA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +250 to +275 | +290 to +335 | -105 to -116 |
| Spread | +0.5, around -119 | N/A | -0.5, around -120 |
| Total 2.5 | Over -122 to -145 / Under +117 | ||
USA remains a slight favorite near -110, while Türkiye is available above +250. The draw has moved into the +300 range, and over 2.5 is favored despite Türkiye failing to score in two matches.
The market is balancing USA’s perfect record against its rotation plan. Four American starters on yellow cards will not begin the match, and Christian Pulisic may be limited despite being medically cleared.
USA Is Protecting the Knockout Squad
Mauricio Pochettino has confirmed that Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams, and Folarin Balogun will not start because another yellow card would suspend them for the Round of 32. That removes major pieces from the defence, midfield, and attack.
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Pulisic has improved from his calf injury but remains a decision. USA still has enough depth to compete through Ricardo Pepi, Malik Tillman, and the reserve midfielders, but the lineup will not have the same chemistry as the first two matches.
Türkiye has created a remarkable amount of volume without scoring. Vincenzo Montella’s team produced 32 attempts against 10-man Paraguay and still lost 1-0. Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız have the technical quality to create, but the final action has consistently failed.
The emotional pressure is different now. Türkiye is eliminated and can play without qualification anxiety, while USA’s main objective is reaching the knockout round healthy and suspension-free.
Set pieces could decide the match because both lineups may lack normal attacking rhythm. Türkiye has strong delivery through Güler and Çalhanoğlu, while USA’s reserve attackers can still threaten from second phases.
2026 World Cup Trends
Draws are 14-40 for +24.07 units and remain the most profitable match-result market. Favorite moneylines have moved into a small profit, but the USA price does not fully account for a heavily changed lineup.
Over 2.5 is 30-24 for +2.09 units, while under 2.5 has lost 5.50 units. The team-specific data points in the opposite direction because both Türkiye matches stayed under 2.5 and produced BTTS No.
Historical Team Trends
Both Türkiye matches in 2026 stayed under 2.5 and ended with one team failing to score. Türkiye has not played another modern World Cup match since 2002, so the current two-match sample is the relevant reference.
USA has produced eight draws in 17 World Cup matches since 2006, returning +11.33 units. Nine of 14 USA matches since 2010 stayed under 2.5, showing a long history of controlled tournament games.
Türkiye vs USA Picks
Draw: USA is rotating, Türkiye has created more than its scoreline suggests, and neither side has a standings reason to chase recklessly.
Türkiye +0.5: This wins with the draw and protects against Türkiye finally converting enough chances to take a consolation victory.
Under 3.5 goals: USA’s attack loses Balogun from the starting lineup, while Türkiye has not converted its volume. A 1-1 or 2-1 result stays below four.
Final Score Prediction
Türkiye 1, USA 1. Türkiye finally scores, but USA’s depth creates an equalizer and completes the group stage unbeaten.
How to Bet Türkiye vs USA
The draw is the preferred value wager. Türkiye +0.5 is the safer version of the same position, while under 3.5 protects against a low-stakes match remaining controlled. Compare current markets through the World Cup odds page, review our World Cup best bets, and visit the World Cup predictions hub.
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