Atlanta Braves (71-89; 79-76-5 O/U) vs. Miami Marlins (76-84; 82-67-11 O/U)
MLB: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 3:10pm EST
Line: Miami -155/Atlanta +145
The Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves as the division rivals close out their 2017 season Sunday afternoon from Marlins Park. The Braves will give the call to 23-year old left-hander Max Fried, and the Marlins will counter with 26-year old right-hander Jose Urena. The Braves lead the season series 10-7.
Fried Looks to Make Strong Final Impression
Max Fried will make his ninth appearance and fourth start of the season, looking to conclude his promising season with his second win. Fried was solid in his previous start, holding the Mets to only two runs (one earned) in 5.1 innings and was charged with the loss. The rookie left-hander will by vying for a spot in the Braves rotation for next season after an encouraging start to his career. He owns a 3.74 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP with a 1-1 record in 21.2 innings pitched. He faced the Marlins earlier this month and was shaky, conceding four runs (three earned) in 3.2 innings and finished with the no decision. Freddie Freeman had another strong season for the Braves and is regarded as a leader on and off the field. He is sporting a .308 average with 28 home runs and 71 RBI’s in 115 games. Freeman owns a solid .314 average with three homers and seven RBI’s against the Marlins this season.
The Braves are scoring an average of 4.51 runs per game, ranking them 20th overall, and own a .263 team batting average. The Atlanta pitching is carrying a 4.70 team ERA, positioning them 24th in the Major Leagues.
Urena Establishes himself as Marlins Top Starter
Jose Urena will make his 34th appearance and 28th start of the season, looking to close his season with 15 wins. Urena was roughed up in his previous start, serving up six runs in five innings to the Rockies, and was tagged with the loss. The young right-hander is having a breakout season and has led the way at the top of the Marlins rotation, sporting a 3.77 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP accompanied with a 14-7 record in 164.2 innings of work. He has silenced the Braves for the most part this season, going 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts, however he owns a 2-3 record with a weak 5.57 ERA in 32.1 career innings against the rivals. Freddie Freeman is 3 for 9 with three RBI’s against Urena, while Matt Kemp is 6 for 12, and Ender Inciarte is 3 for 14. Giancarlo Stanton had a season to remember, smashing 59 home runs along with 130 RBI’s to go with a .289 average. The 27-year old slugger hit a combined 26 home runs in the last two months of the season, and has hit the most home runs since the 2001 season when Barry Bonds broke the single season home run record. Stanton has belted eight home runs with 14 RBI’s against the Braves this season.
The Marlins are now averaging 4.77 runs per game, ranking them 11th in the Majors, and feature a .266 team batting average. The Miami pitching owns a weak 4.81 team ERA, positioning them down at 26th in the Major Leagues.
The Atlanta Braves are:
- 0-5 in their last 5 games overall.
- 0-5 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
- 0-4 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter.
The Miami Marlins are:
- 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- 9-1 in Urena’s last 10 starts against a team with a losing record.
- 4-0 in Urena’s last 4 starts on four days of rest.
I am going with the Marlins in this contest. Urena has silenced the Braves this season, conceding only six runs in 24.1 innings which equates to a dazzling 2.22 ERA, plus he has allowed two or fewer runs in four out of his last five starts. Furthermore, the Marlins were able to score four runs in 3.2 innings against Fried this season, and they are red hot offensively so they should take this one easily.