Milwaukee Brewers (85-76 SU, 86-75 RL, 68-86-7 O/U) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (83-78 SU, 75-86 RL, 81-72-8 O/U)
MLB: Sunday, October 1, 2017, Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri, 3:15 pm ET
Lines: Milwaukee N/A, St. Louis N/A; Over/Under: N/A
It’s the conclusion of a series between a pair of NL Central rivals in the Gateway City. The Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals finish up their respective seasons with the finale of a three game set Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee won the opening game of the series, taking a 5-3 victory Friday night before the Cardinals squared the series with a 7-6 win Saturday afternoon. Which team closes the season with a win between division rivals that missed the postseason?
Milwaukee Brewers Lament Blown Chances
Milwaukee will look back at this season as a series of missed opportunities. The Brewers led the NL Central by 5.5 games at the All Star break but were eliminated from postseason contention as they blew a six run lead Saturday. Orlando Arcia (RBI) and Domingo Santana (run, two RBI) each had three hits for Milwaukee in the loss. Travis Shaw (two runs, two RBI) and Ryan Braun (run, RBI) each added two hits for the Brewers. Junior Guerra recorded a no-decision after allowing three runs on two hits with two walks and five strikeouts over 2.1 innings. Anthony Swarzak (2-1) took the loss in relief after allowing two runs on two hits with two walks over two-thirds of an inning.
Zach Davies makes his 34th start of the year for the Brewers in this contest. He has gone 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.354 WHIP, 55 walks and 124 strikeouts over 191.1 innings of work. Davies recorded a no-decision in his last start, which was at home against the Reds Tuesday night. He threw four innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and no strikeouts in a game Milwaukee won by a 7-6 score. Davies is 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, four walks and five strikeouts over 15 innings in his last three starts. He is 2-0 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP over six starts covering 37 innings against the Cardinals in his career. Davies has no record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.385 WHIP over three starts covering 17.1 innings at Busch Stadium in his career.
St. Louis Cardinals Look Back at Missed Opportunities
St. Louis was knocked out of playoff contention this week by the Cubs. The Cardinals felt compelled to return the favor to someone else as they eliminated the Brewers with a stirring comeback Saturday. St. Louis trailed 6-0 after two and a half innings and 6-4 after seven before tallying three times in the eighth to get the win. Greg Garcia (two runs) had two hits for the Cardinals while Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez and Stephen Piscotty each drove in two runs. Luke Weaver recorded a no-decision after allowing six runs on nine hits with four walks and four strikeouts over 4.2 innings. Ryan Sherriff (2-1) got the win with a scoreless eighth while Juan NIcasio worked the ninth for his sixth save of the season.
Carlos Martinez gets the ball for his 33rd start of the year for the Cardinals in this contest. He is 12-11 with a 3.64 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, 71 walks and 217 strikeouts over 205 innings of work this season. Martinez recorded a no-decision in his last start, which came against the Cubs at home Tuesday. He went 4.1 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits with four walks and six strikeouts in an eventual 8-7 Cardinals victory. Martinez is 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA, a 1.69 WHIP, eight walks and 17 strikeouts over 16 innings in his last three starts. This is his 24th appearance and 13th start against the Brewers in his career: he is 5-4 with one save, a 2.18 ERA and a 1.173 WHIP over 82.2 innings of work. Martinez is 21-16 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP over 87 appearances, 51 starts, covering 347.2 innings in his career at Busch Stadium.
- No Key Trends
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Martinez’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest
- Cardinals are 5-1 in Martinez’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinez’s last 5 home starts
Both teams saw their playoff hopes evaporate this week thanks to damaging series against the Cubs. Milwaukee dropped three of four at home last Thursday to Sunday while the Cardinals did the same Monday to Thursday. They’ll both lament the chances they let slip through their fingers as they will have a long offseason ahead of themselves. In a solid pitching matchup, you have to give the slightest of edges to the Cardinals playing at home. Martinez outduels Davies as St. Louis wins the series to close the year.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee let the postseason slip past them as they couldn’t beat the teams they needed to knock off in the month of September. Equally damaging as the losses to the Cubs and the defeat to the Cardinals Saturday was a sweep at the hands of the last place Reds earlier this month. St. Louis was done in by three losses out of four games to the Cubs earlier this week, including the final nail in the coffin when Leonys Martin robbing Paul DeJong off a potential game-tying homer in extra innings Thursday night. Both teams will mull over those chances as the offseason wears on.
The under is 7-1 in the Brewers last 8 vs. National League Central foes, 10-2 in their last 12 Sunday games, 41-12-2 in their last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter, 20-6 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis has seen the under go 9-1 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 Sunday games and 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Given both teams’ penchant for staying under the total of late, look for this one to fall under the number.