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Mets vs. Phillies,
10-1-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#903 New York
Mets
#904 Philadelphia
Phillies

Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 3:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New York Mets

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Philadelphia Phillies

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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New York Mets (69-91; 88-60-12 O/U) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (65-95; 69-77-14 O/U)

MLB: Sunday, October 1, 2017, at 3:05pm EST

Line: Philadelphia -106/New York -104

Total: 9

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets as the clubs conclude their 2017 season Sunday afternoon from Citizens Bank Park. The Mets will give the nod to 25-year old right-hander Noah Syndergaard, and the Phillies will go with 24-year old right-hander Nick Pivetta. The Mets own an 11-6 lead in the season series.

Syndergaard to Throw 25 Pitches

Noah Syndergaard will make his seventh start of the season to close the Mets season. He will be on a 25 pitch limit as the Mets go easy on him after his long layoff. He made his return to action five days ago and threw only five pitches in one scoreless inning of work against the Nationals. The hard-throwing right-hander has allowed a total of 14 runs (10 earned) with a 1-2 record in 28.1 innings pitched this season. He has silenced the Phillies in his career, going 4-1 with a stifling 1.89 ERA in five career starts. Jose Reyes had a strong September to end his season, posting a .302 average with 18 RBI’s. The 14-year veteran shortstop had a mediocre season, hitting .245 with 15 home runs and 58 RBI’s. Reyes owns a .220 average with five RBI’s against the Phillies pitching this season.

The Mets are averaging 4.55 runs per game, ranking them 19th in the Majors, and are hitting .251 as a team. The New York pitching is carrying a 4.99 team ERA, placing them 28th in the Major Leagues.

Pivetta Targets Third Straight Win to Close Season

Nick Pivetta will get the call for the 26th time of the season, looking to end his season with three consecutive wins. Pivetta was terrific in his latest effort, tossing six shutout innings to the Braves and notched the win. The rookie right-hander has been sharp in two straight starts however overall he is having a shaky rookie season, posting a 6.26 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP to go with a 7-10 record in 128 innings pitched. The Mets have given him trouble this season as he has allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in 16.2 innings spread across three starts. Pivetta has accumulated 133 strikeouts in his 128 innings logged. The performance of rookie Rhys Hoskins really put a bright spot on another rough season for the organization. The 24-year old left fielder put on a show the last two months of the season, and features a .265 average with 18 home runs and 47 RBI’s in 48 games played. Hoskins is 4 for 26 with one RBI against the Mets this season.

The Phillies are scoring an average of 4.22 runs per game, ranking them 27th in the Majors, and are hitting .250 as a team. The Philadelphia pitching owns a 4.57 team ERA, placing them 18th in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The New York Mets are:

  • 5-17 in their last 22 road games.
  • 0-4 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing record.
  • 7-16 in their last 23 games in the third game of a series.

The Philadelphia Phillies are:

  • 5-1 in Pivetta’s last 6 starts.
  • 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games in the third game of a series.

I am going with the Phillies in this matchup. Pivetta has been sharp in his latest two starts, allowing only two runs over his last 12 innings, so I am confident backing him. Furthermore, Syndergaard will only throw 25 pitches before give way to the Mets bullpen which has struggled, posting a poor 4.74 ERA on the season, so I expect the Phillies to have a strong afternoon at the plate.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -106

Pivetta has had a tough time against the Mets this season and the Mets bullpen has struggled throughout the year. The Mets just scored six runs against Pivetta earlier this month, and the over is 13-6 in the Mets last 19 road games. Syndergaard will only throw 25 pitches and the Mets weak bullpen will take over the rest of the way, so the Phillies should plate some runs, and the over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these rivals.

Pick: Over 9

4

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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