Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4969 Boston Red Sox vs.
#4970 Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 3:07pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Boston Red Sox enter the final weekend of the season in Toronto to take on the playoff-bound Blue Jays. Boston is playing out the string and coming off a successful home series with the Orioles. Toronto is leading the pack in the wildcard race and looks to sew up the #4 seed and home field advantage in round 1 of the playoffs. The pitching matchup on Saturday has young righty Brayan Bello (2-7, 4.39) of the Red Sox taking on fellow righty Ross Stripling (9-4, 3.16) of the Blue Jays. Game time is set for 3:07pm EST.

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Strong Finish for Sox?

The Red Sox wrapped up their four-game series with the Orioles with three-straight wins. After a rough weekend in New York against the Yankees, the Sox proved that they weren't ready to pack it in just yet with a solid series against the fourth-place Birds. Boston even got a start out of Nathan Eovaldi in the final game against the Orioles. On Friday night in Toronto, the Red Sox bats went silent and the pitching staff was pounded by the Jays' potent lineup in a one-sided drubbing. The loss guarantees a losing season in Boston.

The Red Sox bats came alive in the last four games prior to Friday night's matchup. The team hit .311 in the four games, scored more than seven runs per game and belted six home runs. On the mound on Saturday for Boston will be youngster Brayan Bello. Bello has pitched progressively better since a rough start right after his call-up. In his last five starts, he is 2-3 but with an impressive 1.65 ERA.

Working for Seeding

The Toronto Blue Jays still have some work to do before the regular season comes to a close on Wednesday. The Jays currently lead the Rays by a game and a half and one game in the loss column. With the Rays' outstanding home record this season, Toronto certainly wants to avoid being the #5 seed if they can. Toronto comes into the series losers of two straight to close their series with the Yankees. On Friday night against Boston, the Blue Jays got an outstanding performance from all-star pitcher Alek Manoah and rolled to a one-sided victory. The Jays are now 14-3 against Boston this season.

The Blue Jays have been struggling as of late heading into this series. The Jays are just 4-6 in their last ten games heading into Friday night's series opener. The Jays have hit 15 home runs in their last ten games. On Saturday afternoon, they will turn to Ross Stripling to try and move one step closer to the #4 seed. Stripling is 1-0 this year against Boston in four starts. He has allowed 21 hits in 20 innings and struck out 17 batters.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Bello is pitching very well as of late but so is Stripling and the Jays have something to play for on Saturday. The Jays have dominated this series, 13-3 heading into Friday night's series opener. The Jays have scored 100 runs in the 13 games and averaged a home run a game. While Toronto will assuredly trot out their top lineup, Boston definitely will utilize different players in this one as they look different options in their lineup. They have also not scored well with Bello on the mound, as evidenced by his 2-3 record despite an ERA under 2.00 in his last five starts. The Jays' are battling the Rays for that top spot and can't afford a slip-up against a Red Sox team that is already thinking about what to leave in their locker over the winter.

Take the Jays with the money line.

Prediction: Toronto -146

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Both teams are 6-4 in their last ten games entering Friday night's matchup. The Jays have also scored 100 runs in the 16 meetings thus far this season and have been hitting the long ball of late with 15 in their last ten games. Boston's veterans such as Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez are still playing for their next contracts so they will certainly both be in there and looking to put up numbers. Bello will pitch well but he's not gone past the sixth yet and that means more of Boston's struggling bullpen than anyone needs to see, save for the Blue Jays.

Take the over, 8.5 runs.

Prediction: Over 8.5

Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.