Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4959 Miami Marlins vs.
#4960 Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Miami Marlins (65-91, 73-82 RL, 68-80-7 O/U) clash with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-73, 66-89 RL, 72-72-11 O/U) in the third of a four-game NL series on Saturday evening. The Marlins will have Edward Cabrera on the hill. The Brewers will likely counter with Aaron Ashby. The Brewers lead the season series 3-2.

Cabrera Starts Third Game of Series

The Marlins will have Edward Cabrera on the hill on Saturday. Cabrera wasn’t able to find a groove last time out, conceding three runs in 3.2 innings against the Nationals and was hit with the loss to dip to 6-4. The talented rookie hasn’t been quite as sharp in his last few outings but is having a promising season, posting a strong 3.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 68.2 innings pitched. Cabrera has allowed eight home runs in his last six starts. This marks his first meeting against the Brewers.

Miami is playing reasonably well, logging the win in six out of their last nine games entering Friday night. They earned a series win against the Nationals last weekend and lost two of three against the Mets this week. The Fish are 32-45 on the road this season.

The Marlins are happy with the play of Jordan Groshans. The 22-year-old shortstop was acquired from the Blue Jays in July and was recently called for his big league debut. Groshans has logged a .261 average and a .632 OPS in his first 13 big league games. He went 1 for 4 in Thursday's win.

Miami is posting an average of 3.59 runs, ranking them 28th overall. The pitching staff has accrued a 3.91 team ERA, placing them 15th in the big leagues. 

Brewers Eye Last Wildcard Spot

The Brewers will likely have Aaron Ashby on the hill. Ashby allowed one run in 1.2 innings against the Reds in his latest appearance last weekend. The young right-hander has posted quite a few strong performances but consistency is an issue and has filed a 4.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP accompanied by a 2-10 record in 100 innings pitched on the year. Ashby logged four shutout innings against the Marlins earlier this season in a Brewers win, marking his only career meeting.

Milwaukee still has a chance in the NL Wildcard. They now trail the Phillies by half a game in the last Wildcard spot and have a good chance considering they play Arizona after this series. The Brewers dropped two of three home games against the Cardinals this week and lost Thursday's opener by a 4-2 score.

Hunter Renfroe has been a threat, bashing three home runs with seven RBIs in his last five games. The 30-year-old is having a productive season, launching 28 homers with 70 RBIs and an .801 OPS. Renfroe has three RBIs and a .731 OPS against the Pirates this season.

The Brewers are averaging 4.54 runs on the season, landing them 10th overall. The pitching staff enters with a 3.90 team ERA, positioning them 13th in the Major Leagues. 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The Brewers' season is on the line and they need to win this game at all costs. Marlins’ starter Edward Cabrera was dominating earlier this season but has hit a bump. The rookie has surrendered six runs including two home runs in his last two outings spanning 8.2 innings. Home runs are an issue, surrendering eight big flies in his last six starts.

Furthermore, this is more of a bullpen start for Milwaukee which isn't a bad thing. They will likely have Aaron Ashby start this game. He recorded four scoreless innings in his only career meeting against the Marlins earlier this season and features a 3.38 ERA in his 32 innings pitched at home.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I expect a pitcher's duel. The Marlins rarely post a big number. They have now scored four or fewer runs in eight out of their last ten games and continue to play the remainder of the season without many key hitters including Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Garrett Cooper to name a few. 

In addition, while I definitely expect enough offense against Cabrera to record the victory, he actually pitches better on the road where he is sporting a minuscule 1.62 ERA on the year. The Brewers have only scored three runs in this series. The under is also a convincing 8-1 in the Brewers’ last nine games.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.