Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4917 Baltimore Orioles vs.
#4918 New York Yankees
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1:35pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Aaron Judge Watch continues on Sunday afternoon as the Baltimore Orioles wrap up their three-game series with the New York Yankees in New York. The Orioles have lost four out of five games as the season draws to a close but have yet to surrender a home run to Judge in the series. The Yankees are locked up a playoff spot and are set to be the #2 seed in the American League playoffs. The pitching matchup for Sunday will be Kyle Bradish (4-7, 5.11) of the Orioles taking on Luis Severino (6-3, 3.41) of the Yankees. Game time is set for 1:35pm EST.

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Closing Time

The Baltimore Orioles need just one more win in their final four games to guarantee a winning record in 2022 but they have fizzled over the last few weeks. They dropped three of four to Boston, including three in a row, before winning the opener on Friday night against New York. On Saturday, the Orioles bats were silenced in an 8-0 shutout loss to the Yankees. While the game took a backseat to Aaron Judge's quest for home run #62, the Orioles looked listless. They had just three hits in the game and struck out 14 times.

The Orioles have four games left to pick up that 82nd victory and give themselves the good feeling of an over .500 season. Having shown what they are capable of, this won't satisfy this group next season but it is important for 2022. On the mound to help get that 82nd victory will be Kyle Bradish. Bradish is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in his last five starts. He has allowed 20 hits in 25.2 innings pitched in that span. Against New York this season, Bradish is 0-1 with an ERA of 8.31 in one start.

All Rise

The Aaron Judge watch continues. Wins and losses have taken a back seat now for a Yankees team that has clinched the AL East and is the #2 seed in the AL Playoffs. Judge sits at 61 home runs with just one more chance to get the record in front of the home folks. The Yankees close out the regular season with four games at Texas. On Saturday, Judge went 0-2 with 2 walks and an HBP in a Yankees' 8-0 win. The Yankees did hit two home runs in the win, including one from Giancarlo Stanton that was a welcome sign for the Yankees faithful from the slumping slugger.

With just five games left, Yankees Manager Aaron Boone surely would like the Aaron Judge home run issue to be resolved sooner than later. The Yankees as a team have been banged up for much of the second half of the season and Boone would surely like to get his most indispensable player some rest. On the mound on Sunday for New York will be right-hander Luis Severino. Severino recently returned from the IL and continues to work himself back into form for a playoff run. Severino is 1-0 in two starts since returning from the IL. He has gone nine innings and allowed five hits while striking out ten and walking four.

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As long as Judge is still going for the record, Aaron Boone will pencil in a solid lineup around him so he has the best chance to get the record. With that in mind, I like the Yankees to continue to put up numbers and produce with a regular lineup as opposed to a lineup of call-ups and little-used bench players to get some work and keep the likes of Stanton and Rizzo healthy. Severino will also get a chance to get his innings in during this game as well, with it being his last appearance before the playoffs begin for the Yankees in over a week and a half at the earliest. The Orioles look like a team that has finally run out of steam despite a great run this season with a record of 9-11 in their last 20 games and 14-16 in their last 30. Look for the Yankees to close out the home regular season schedule with a win.

Take the Yankees with the run line.

Prediction: Yankees -1.5

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The Yankees are 6-4 to the over in their last ten games. They have gone to the over in three out of Severino's last four starts and Judge will assure the Yankees will have runners on base throughout as the Orioles pitchers work carefully around the slugger. The Orioles are just 5-5 to the over in their last ten games but they will put up some runs on Sunday against Severino, who is still working himself back into pitching shape. Baltimore has gone to the over in two out Bradish's last three starts.

Take the over, 7 runs.

Prediction: Over 7
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Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.