Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4919 Boston Red Sox vs.
#4920 Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1:37pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Sunday, the (75-82) Boston Red Sox and the (88-69) Toronto Blue Jays will play the final game of this three-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 1:37 PM EST inside the Rogers Centre. The last time that these two teams matched up, the Blue Jays ended up sweeping the Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox are coming into this one after winning their previous series against the Baltimore Orioles. Boston took three of four games, as they looked great at the dish. They scored 21 combined runs in their three wins.

The Toronto Blue Jays are entering this one after losing their previous series to the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays struggled at the plate in games two and three, as they only scored five combined runs in their two losses. They will have to warm up at the plate if they want to take care of business at home. (Toronto crushed Boston 10-0 on Saturday).

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Can the Red Sox Finish Strong?

The Boston Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games played, as they have continued to fall out of the AL Wild Card race. They are now 11 games back from the Tampa Bay Rays for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. Boston is also stuck in dead last place in the AL East, as they trial the first-place New York Yankees by 21.5 games.

At the plate, the Red Sox are scoring 4.63 runs per game and they are hitting .258 as a team. This is the eighth most runs per game and the second-highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can consistently reach base safely and they have also been great with men in scoring position. Boston has also realized that they don't have as much power inside of their lineup as they originally thought. They are only averaging .98 home runs per game, which is the 20th most in the MLB. I would watch for Rafael Devers at the plate, as he leads the team with 27 bombs this season. I would also expect the Red Sox to stay unaggressive once they have reached base safely. They have only swiped 51 bases this season, which is the 26th most in the league.

According to MLB.com, the Red Sox will be starting Michael Wacha on the mound, as he is 11-1 this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 3.1 innings but gave up six earned runs to the Orioles. He is also 6-0 on the road this season with a 3.46 ERA. The Red Sox bullpen hasn't been as solid, though. They are surrendering the 25th most runs per game. As a team, Boston is surrendering 4.95 runs per game, which is the 25th most in the MLB this season.

Will the Blue Jays Hold On?

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently sitting at the top of the AL Wild Card race, as they have a 2-game lead over the Seattle Mariners. Toronto is 5-5 in their last 10 games played, as they will make the postseason this year. They are also still in second place in the AL East, as they trail the first-place New York Yankees by 8.5 games.

At the plate, the Blue Jays are scoring 4.79 runs per game and they are hitting .261 as a team. This is the sixth most runs scored per game and the highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can consistently make contact with the ball, which has made it much easier to score. They also have a ton of power hidden inside of their lineup. They are hitting 1.25 bombs per game, which is the ninth most in the MLB. I would watch for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as he leads the team with 31 home runs this season. I would also expect the Blue Jays to stay unaggressive once they have reached base safely, as well. They will allow their bats to move runners into scoring position, as they have stolen the 21st most bases this season.

According to MLB.com, the Blue Jays will be starting Kevin Gausman on the mound. He is 12-10 this season with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 6.1 innings and he only gave up six hits and two earned runs to the Yankees. He hasn't been perfect at home this season, though. Inside his home ballpark, he is 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA. Toronto's bullpen is allowing the sixth least amount of runs per game, as well. As a team, the Blue Jays are allowing 4.30 runs per game, which is the 15th most in the league.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be riding with the Boston Red Sox (+1.5) in this matchup with the Blue Jays. Boston will be starting Michael Wacha on the mound, as he has been great this season. He is 11-1 with a 3.06 ERA and he has also been a beast on the road. He will be able to keep the Blue Jays off the scoreboard for the majority of this game. He struggled in his last start, but he will be looking to bounce back. Kevin Gausman has also been horrible at home this season. He is 4-7 and has a 4.52 ERA, as he has been a completely different pitcher inside the Rogers Centre. Boston is also scoring the eighth most runs per game and they have the second-highest overall team batting average. They will consistently reach base throughout this game and give themselves multiple opportunities to score. The Blue Jays are also giving up the 15th most runs per game as a team. They aren't perfect in the field and the Red Sox have zero pressure on them right now. They are playing free, as I see them finishing this series strong against the Blue Jays. Game one was brutal, but they did not have the pitching advantage. Now they do and they will show up at the plate.

Pick the Boston Red Sox and take the run line spread (+1.5).

Prediction: Boston Red Sox +1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be hammering the over (8) runs in this matchup, as I like both of these offenses better than the starting pitchers. The Blue Jays will have Gausman on the mound and he has had some serious troubles inside his home ballpark this season. He is 4-7 and has a 4.52 ERA. The Red Sox will be able to get to him early, as they are scoring the eighth most runs per game and they have the second-highest overall team batting average. They will consistently reach base throughout this game and give themselves multiple opportunities to score. Now, the Blue Jays will also do their part in pushing this total over the number. Wacha struggled in his last start and the Blue Jays are seeing the ball great right now. They exploded at the plate in game one and I see that carrying over into this game. They are scoring the sixth most runs per game and they have the highest team batting average. I also see them scoring late, as the Red Sox bullpen has continued to struggle this season.

Hammer the over (8) runs and trust each team at the plate in this game.

Prediction: Over 8
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!