The Atlanta Braves (0-1, 0-1 RL, 0-1 O/U) attempt to stave off elimination against the San Diego Padres (1-0, 1-0 RL, 0-1 O/U) in game two of the NL wild card series on Wednesday evening. The Braves are going with Max Fried. The Padres will reply with Joe Musgrove. The Padres won the season series 4-3 and posted a 4-0 win in game one on Tuesday evening.
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Atlanta Hopes to Avoid Elimination
The Braves will give Max Fried the nod in game two. Fried posted a gem in his previous effort, recording 8.2 scoreless innings against the Royals, and collected the victory. The young ace has been sharp, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last five outings, and has delivered a 3.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP accompanied by an 11-10 record in 174.1 innings. Fried gave up three runs in 4.1 innings in a 3-1 defeat against San Diego in May. He has a sharp 2.30 ERA and a 3-1 record in 31.1 career innings against San Diego.
Atlanta hopes to settle in after a hectic few days. They played the big doubleheader against the Mets on Monday and got into San Diego late Tuesday morning. They resorted to starting AJ Smith-Shawver in game one. The Braves won two of three in San Diego in July. The offense has been wildly inconsistent this season and could not get anything going in game one. They went 0 for 3 with RISP.
Ozzie Albies is a key piece. The 27-year-old second baseman is having a down year, bashing 10 home runs with 53 RBIs and a .707 OPS. He recorded two RBIs against the Padres this season and singled in the defeat on Tuesday. Marcell Ozuna collected four RBIs and a sparkling 1.3 OPS against the Padres in the regular season. The veteran slugger went 1 for 4 in the series opener.
Atlanta is averaging 4.35 runs per game, marking them 15th. The pitching is their greatest strength. They have posted a 3.50 ERA, good for second.
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San Diego Eyes Sweep
Joe Musgrove will be on the rubber in game two. Musgrove was outstanding in his last outing of the season, holding the Dodgers to only two runs in 6.1 innings, resulting in a no-decision in a game the Padres lost. The veteran missed about two months due to an elbow injury. The righty was dominant upon his return. He has issued a 2.51 ERA this month and is sporting a 3.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP accompanied by a 6-5 record in 99.2 innings pitched on the season. Musgrove has decent numbers against the Braves, yielding a 4.29 ERA and a 3-1 record in 42 career innings.
San Diego has a chance to quickly put the series to bed. The Padres scored eight runs in three home meetings in the previous series against the Braves. San Diego produced four runs in game one including home runs by Tatis Jr. and Higashioka. It has been the pitching winning the Padres games. They have conceded three or fewer runs in five consecutive home bouts. The bullpen has reported a 3.78 ERA on the season.
Jake Cronenworth is having an outstanding season and is a proven playoff performer. Cronenworth has two home runs along with nine RBIs and a .776 OPS in 18 career playoff games. Jurickson Profar is enjoying the best season of his career, smashing 24 home runs with 85 RBIs and an .839 OPS. Profar amassed two RBIs and a .765 OPS against the Braves in the season and went 0 for 3 in game one.
San Diego is scoring an average of 4.70 runs on the season, ranking them eighth. The pitching staff was dominant throughout September and has a 3.86 ERA, positioning them 11th.
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Best Bets for Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The Atlanta Braves need to win to extend their season. The Braves have only won three of the eight meetings against the Padres this season after the 4-0 defeat in game one. San Diego has played with swagger all season and is a complete team.
Furthermore, Braves pitcher Max Fried gave up three runs in only 4.1 innings in his only meeting against San Diego this season. His postseason numbers are rather weak. The southpaw has registered a 4.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 65 career playoff innings. Joe Musgrove has playoff experience. He was outstanding in the 2022 postseason with the Padres, generating a 2.89 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 18.2 innings pitched. Musgrove has yielded a stifling 2.51 ERA in his last five outings and will deliver the Padres a sweep.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
I expect this one to go under. Atlanta continues to have issues generating runs. They have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games. Also, they have plated three or fewer runs in five of the eight meetings against the Padres this season. Musgrove has been steady, holding his opponent to two or fewer runs in eight of his last ten outings.
In addition, San Diego has not been scoring many runs either. They have only averaged 3.8 runs against the Braves this season after collecting four runs in the series opener. Fried will not be easy to solve. He has issued a dazzling 2.14 ERA in his last five outings. The under is a convincing 5-0-1 in the Padres' last six home games.
