Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#801 Miami Marlins vs.
#802 New York Mets
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 1:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the continuation of a weekend set between a pair of NL East rivals on the diamond in the Big Apple. The Miami Marlins are on the road as they make the trip to face the New York Mets in the middle game of a three-game set Saturday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Thursday afternoon, it was the Mets rallying for a 3-2 walk-off victory in a midst of controversy to draw first blood in the series. The teams were off Friday afternoon to give them an off-day in the series. Will the Marlins bounce back and even the set or can the Mets poise themselves for a chance at a sweep by prevailing here?

Miami Marlins Hope to Stop Slide at Four games

Miami suffered their fourth straight loss as they gave up a ninth-inning rally to end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the Mets’ home opener. The Marlins entered Friday in the basement of the NL East, 4.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. In Thursday’s game, Miami got two of their five hits from Corey Dickerson (run, RBI) while Jesus Aguilar drove in the other run for the team. Nick Neidert was solid but didn’t factor in the decision in his season debut. He threw 4.1 innings, allowing one run on three hits with five walks and three strikeouts. Anthony Bass (0-2) took the loss in relief as he allowed two runs on three hits with a walk, no strikeouts and a hit batter in one-third of an inning of relief.

Trevor Rogers is on the bump for the Marlins as he logs his second start of the season for the Marlins in this contest. He comes in 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, four walks and six strikeouts on the season. Rogers took the loss in his season debut, which came Monday at home against St. Louis. He threw four innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on two hits with four walks and six strikeouts in a game the Marlins lost by a 4-1 count. Rogers makes his third career start against the Mets in this contest. He is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, a 1.444 WHIP, seven walks and 11 strikeouts over nine innings of work against them. Rogers has made both of his starts against the Mets at Citi Field, giving him experience with pitching at the park.

New York Mets Look to Win Second Straight at Home

New York bounced back from dropping two of three to the Phillies by evening their record with a walk-off win on Thursday afternoon. The Mets entered Friday’s action second in the NL East, two games behind the Phillies for the top spot in the division race. In Thursday’s opener, Brandon Nimmo had three of the team’s seven hits, including a pair of doubles. Jeff McNeil tied the game with a solo homer, his first of the season, in the ninth inning while Michael Conforto drove in the winning run with a controversial hit by pitch later in the frame on a pitch that could have been strike three. Taijuan Walker turned in a quality start but didn’t factor in the decision as he threw six innings, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts. Edwin Diaz (1-0) worked a scoreless ninth, allowing no hits with a walk and one strikeout to earn the win in relief.

Jacob deGrom is projected to get the ball for his second start of the season for the Mets in this contest. He comes in with no record, a 0.00 ERA, a 0.833 WHIP, two walks and seven strikeouts on the year. In his season debut, deGrom didn’t factor in the decision on the road in Philadelphia Monday. He threw six scoreless innings, allowing three hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Mets went on to drop 5-3. This marks deGrom’s 27th career start against the Marlins. He comes in 10-8 with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP, 35 walks and 203 strikeouts over 162 innings of work. In 93 career starts at Citi Field, deGrom is 33-29 with a 2.19 ERA, a 0.973 WHIP, 152 walks and 744 strikeouts over 601 innings of action.

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The Marlins have really struggled at the plate in the early going this season as they have been unable to generate much in the way of offensive production. Miami had 12 runs in their lone win on the year while their six losses have seen them generate only nine runs combined. Facing deGrom, a pitcher who doesn’t give up a ton of runs, especially pitching at Citi Field, is going to make things that much tougher for the Marlins. While Miami was potentially jobbed out of a shot at a win Thursday afternoon, they likely don’t get that close in this one. Give the Mets the advantage in this contest as they set themselves up for a potential sweep Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: New York Mets

Full-Game Total Pick

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Miami saw a total of 56 runs on the board in their first eight games (21 runs for, 35 runs against) so far. That gives the Marlins an average total of eight runs per game on the board this season. The Marlins went over the total in two of their three games against the Rays but stayed under the mark in each of their last four games going into this one. New York has scored 16 runs while allowing 19 in their first four games, creating an average total of 8.75 runs per game. With deGrom on the hill pitching his usual type of contest, it’s hard to see the Marlins generating a ton of offense. This one ends up falling short of the mark.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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