Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#853 Cincinnati Reds vs.
#854 Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of National League teams close out a weekend series between teams looking to leave town with a victory in the Valley of the Sun. The Cincinnati Reds are on the road as they close out a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday afternoon. In the series opener Friday night, it was the Reds scratching out a 6-5, 10-inning victory to give themselves the upper hand in the series. The pitching matchup for the middle game of the set Saturday night saw Jeff Hoffman take the mound for the Reds. He was slated to face off with the Diamondbacks’ Riley Smith. First pitch from Chase Field was scheduled for 8:10 pm ET.

Cincinnati Reds Looking to Earn Road Series Win

Cincinnati needed extra innings but managed to come up with the victory in the series opener of this set. The Reds entered Saturday leading the NL Central by one game over the Cardinals and with a six-game win streak running. In Friday’s contest, Cincinnati got three hits each from Jesse Winker (run) and Tucker Barnhart (run, two RBI) while Nick Castellanos added a pair. Barnhart drove in the winning run in the 10th inning while Tyler Naquin launched his league-leading fifth homer of the year. Tyler Mahle was sharp but didn’t factor in the decision as he threw four innings, allowing no runs on no hits with four walks and six strikeouts. Cionel Perez (1-0) earned the win by getting the final two outs of the ninth, working around a walk. Amir Garrett worked the 10th, striking out two, for his second save of the year.

Jose De Leon takes the hill for his second start of the year for the Reds in this contest. He comes in with no record, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, two walks and nine strikeouts on the year. De Leon didn’t factor in the decision in his season debut, which came Monday at home against the Pirates. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on three hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in a game the Reds went on to win 5-3. De Leon didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks, which came with the Dodgers on September 18, 2016. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing six runs (four earned) on seven hits with three walks and one strikeout in a game the Dodgers went on to lose 10-9 in 12 innings. That start did come at Chase Field, giving him at least a passing familiarity with the park.

Arizona Diamondbacks Try to Pick Up Win on Getaway Day

Arizona dropped their third straight game as their rally to get back in the game ended up leading to a loss in extra innings. The Diamondbacks entered Saturday in the basement of the NL West, four games behind the Dodgers for the top spot. Eduardo Escobar (two runs, two RBI) had two of the Diamondbacks’ six hits in the contest as the lone player to record more than one. He hit his second homer of the season in the defeat and also doubled. Taylor Widener didn’t factor in the decision as he threw five innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits with no walks and three strikeouts. Alex Young (0-2) took the loss as he allowed a run (none earned) on one hit with a walk and a strikeout in one inning of work.

Luke Weaver is on the hill for Arizona here as he makes his second start of the year in this contest. He comes in with no record, a 4.76 ERA, a 0.706 WHIP, no walks and three strikeouts on the year. Weaver didn’t factor in the decision in his season debut, which came on the road against the Rockies Tuesday night. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing three runs on four hits with no walks and three strikeouts in a game the Diamondbacks went on to win 10-8 in 13 innings. Weaver makes his seventh career appearance and sixth start against the Reds in this contest. He comes in 3-0 with a 5.06 ERA, a 1.388 WHIP, 12 walks and 28 strikeouts over 26.2 innings of work. Weaver is 1-6 with a 5.10 ERA, a 1.445 WHIP, 19 walks and 56 strikeouts over 54.2 innings of work in 11 career starts at Chase Field.

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Weaver has been decent against the Reds in his career but pitching at Chase Field has been a house of horrors for him. He was a dismal 1-9 last season overall with a 6.58 ERA and he still has to show that he can return to the form that made him a highly touted prospect several years ago. The Reds had won six straight entering Saturday as they have gotten solid work from the lineup and their pitching staff. Cincinnati has momentum and they are a tough team to handle right now. Arizona has sputtered out of the gates and it’s hard to have faith in them with the way Weaver has struggled at home. Give Cincinnati the edge in this one.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -117

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Cincinnati has seen the over hit in six of their seven games on the year entering Saturday. The Reds are leading the majors with an average of nine runs per game while they are 16th by allowing 4.43 runs per game this season. That gives Cincinnati an average total of 13.43 runs per game entering Saturday. Arizona has seen the under hit in five of their eight contests this year. The Diamondbacks are 18th in the majors as they average 3.75 runs per contest and stand 26th by allowing an average of 6.12 per contest. That gives Arizona an average of 9.87 runs per game this season. We saw 11 runs in the first meeting and there is plenty of potential for offense again here. Look for this one to wind up over the mark.

Prediction: Over 9
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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