Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 San Diego Padres vs.
#954 Texas Rangers
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 2:35pm EDT
Written by Doug Gilghrist

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The San Diego Padres continue their first road trip of the season, as they take on the Texas Rangers in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. The Padres won game one of the series on Friday night by a score of 3-0, as Joe Musgrove pitched the first no-hitter in Padres history, becoming the last team to do so. The only base runner allowed by Musgrove in the game was a fourth-inning hit batsman of Joey Gallo in the fourth inning. Musgrove retired the final 16 batters of the game. Trent Grisham and Wil Myers had two hits apiece for San Diego, while they both doubled in the game. Manny Machado also doubled for San Diego.

This preview was written before game two of the series on Saturday evening.

Padres get second shutout of the season on Friday

Friday's game was the San Diego Padres' second shutout of the season, both coming in Joe Musgrove's two starts. Musgrove, who has a 31-38 career record, pitched six scoreless innings, giving up just three hits, in a 7-0 victory over on April 3.

“It's awesome to have it (the no-hitter) be in a Padres uniform,” Musgrove, who grew up as a Padres fan, said on espn.com. “To have it be the first in the history of the franchise, that's incredible.”

Musgrove isn't the only Padres' pitcher who is pitching well this season, however. San Diego's pitching staff has posted a 1.73 ERA in their first eight games. Their bullpen has been even better than their starters this season, as their relievers have a 0.91 ERA in 29.2 innings pitched this season.

Offensively, the Padres have three regulars who are hitting over .300 in the early going. Eric Hosmer and Myers are both hitting .346, while Jake Cronenworth is batting .310. As a team, San Diego is hitting .251 through their first eight games. Hosmer and Myers both have two home runs to lead the Padres, who have hit just seven long balls as a team. Hosmer also leads the team with seven RBI. Superstar Fernando Tatis, Jr. has been on the 10-day IL since April 6 with a shoulder injury. Coming into Saturday's action, San Diego has won two of their last three games since losing two straight games to Arizona and San Francisco.

Twenty-two-year-old Adrian Morejon, who has pitched in parts of three seasons with the Padres, will get his second start of the season on Sunday. This will be his 16th career appearance and eighth start in the big leagues. In his first start of this season, Morejon pitched just four innings, and gave up two runs (on two home runs) on five hits, while he struck out just two batters. For his career, he has a 6.03 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Morejon has one start against Texas in his young career, throwing three hitless and scoreless innings last season in a no-decision. He walked one batter and struck out four in that appearance.

Rangers' offensive woes continue

After scoring 10 runs in their season-opener against the Kansas City Royals (and still losing 14-10), the Texas Rangers have struggled to put runs on the board. In two of their three wins (through Friday night), Texas had scored seven runs, but in their other four games, the Rangers have scored a total of eight runs. They had won three out of four before they were no-hit by San Diego on Friday. Through their first seven games of the season, Texas has hit just .231 with a .675 OPS. They have hit eight home runs, but they have struck out in 31.8% (73 of 229) of their at bats this season. They already have three players (Nate Lowe, Nick Solak, and Leody Taveras) who have struck out at least 10 times in their first seven games. Lowe leads the team in all three Triple Crown categories, batting .286 with three home runs and 14 RBI, which is tied for the most in the major leagues.

Pitching has not been the Rangers' strong suit in the first seven games of the season. They have a team ERA of 5.46 and a 1,39 WHIP. Their opponents are batting .270 against them this season. Texas' relief pitching has been even worse than the starting pitching this season, as six of their nine relievers have an ERA over 5.70. Their bullpen has given up 20 earned runs in 31 innings pitched for a 5.81 ERA.

Mike Foltynewicz goes to the mound for the Rangers in the series finale on Sunday. He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his one start this season. He gave up four runs in four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on April 5. This is his first season with Texas after spending the previous six seasons with Atlanta. This will be Foltynewicz's fourth career start versus San Diego. He is 1-1 in his previous three starts with a 5.40 ERA in 16.2 innings pitched. Only four of the Padres current position players have ever faced Foltynewicz before. They (Hosmer, Machado, Myers, and Tommy Pham) are a combined 11-29, which is a .379 batting average, in their careers against him.

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The San Diego Padres have dominated the Texas Rangers in their recent history. The Padres have won six straight games against the Rangers by a combined 44-21 score. Texas hasn't really gotten their pitching or hitting going yet this season, while San Diego seems to be clicking on all cylinders. Even without Tatis, Jr., the Padres have three players who are hitting above .300, and their pitching has been lights out, especially their bullpen, which sports an ERA of under 1.00 through Friday's action. San Diego has hit Foltynewicz pretty well in their careers, so give the advantage to the Padres in the series finale on Sunday.

Prediction: San Diego -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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San Diego is averaging over 7.0 runs per game in their last six games versus Texas, and before Friday's 3-0 win, the Padres had scored at least six runs in five straight games versus the Rangers. Neither starting pitcher has been very effective, as Morejon has a career ERA above 6.00, while Foltynewicz has a 9.00 ERA this season. San Diego's bats have hit Foltynewicz hard in his career, so look for the Padres to put up a lot of runs in this one. Even once they get into the bullpen, San Diego will have the advantage against the Rangers poor 'pen. Texas will get some runs early against Morejon, who gave up two home runs in his first start of the season. Look for a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday.

Prediction: Over 9.5
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Written By Doug Gilghrist , "Doug Gilghrist"

Doug has a Journalism degree from Slippery Rock University in Pennsylvania. He has been a passionate sports fan, especially Pittsburgh sports, for over 40 years. In his journalistic career, Doug has covered just about every sport imaginable and is now plying his trade for us here at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt. Doug has always been fascinated by numbers, especially as they relate to sports, so writing for this website is right up his alley.