Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#905 Miami Marlins vs.
#906 Atlanta Braves
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:20pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the opening game of an early-week series between NL East rivals on the diamond in Hotlanta. The Miami Marlins are on the road as they kick off a four-game set with the Atlanta Braves Monday night. Miami closed out a three-game set on the road with the Mets by playing the rubber game Sunday afternoon. The Marlins earned a 3-0 win in the middle game of the set Saturday afternoon. Atlanta closed a three-game set at home against the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. The Braves were going for a sweep as they downed Philadelphia 5-4 Saturday night in the middle game of that set. Last season, the Braves won the season series 6-4 and took three of four in the final series last season, which came at home September 21-24, 2020.

Miami Marlins Hoping to Build Momentum

Miami picked up a rare early-season win on Saturday to set themselves up for a rubber game of their three-game set with the Mets Sunday. The Marlins entered Sunday fourth in the NL East, three games behind the Phillies for the top spot in the division. Miami got two hits each from Starling Marte (run) and Miguel Rojas (RBI) while Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit his first homer of the season to provide the only run the team would need on the afternoon. Trevor Rogers (1-1) turned in a sparkling outing on the mound to get the win. He threw six scoreless innings, allowing three hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts. Yimi Garcia worked the ninth, striking out one, to earn his first save of the year.

Sandy Alcantara gets the ball for the Marlins as he makes his third start of the young season in this contest. He comes in 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA, a 0.833 WHIP, four walks and 17 strikeouts over 12 innings of work. Alcantara took the loss in his last start, which came at home against the Cardinals on Tuesday night. He threw six innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts in a game the Marlins eventually dropped 4-2. Alcantara makes his fourth career start against the Braves in this contest. He has no record with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.125 WHIP, nine walks and 13 strikeouts over 18.2 innings of work. Alcantara has no record with a 1.64 ERA, a 1.273 WHIP, seven walks and seven strikeouts over 11 innings in two career starts at Truist Field.

Atlanta Braves Try to Maintain Recent Momentum

Atlanta went into Sunday night looking to repay the Phillies with a three-game sweep after Philadelphia swept them last weekend. The Braves entered Sunday second in the NL East, one game behind the Phillies for the top spot in the division race. In Saturday’s game, Atlanta got two hits each from Ronald Acuna Jr. (run) and Travis d’Arnaud while Freddie Freeman hit his third homer of the season. Freeman drove in the winning run with an RBI groundout in the seventh inning to cap a three-RBI night. Ian Anderson didn’t factor in the decision as he threw 5.1 innings, allowing four runs on five hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Sean Newcomb (1-0) earned the win with 1.2 scoreless innings of relief, allowing one hit with one walk and four strikeouts. Will Smith worked the ninth, striking out one, for his second save.

Max Fried is expected to get the call to make his third start of the season for the Braves in this contest hoping to turn things around. He has no record, a 9.00 ERA, a 2.429 WHIP, three walks and 11 strikeouts over seven innings of work. Fried didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Tuesday on the road in the first game of a doubleheader against the Nationals. He threw two innings, allowing five runs on eight hits with one walk and three strikeouts in a game the Braves went on to win 7-6. Fried makes his seventh career start against the Marlins in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.633 WHIP, seven walks and 31 strikeouts over 26.1 innings of work against them. Fried is 13-4 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.191 WHIP, 38 walks and 135 strikeouts over 139.1 innings in 30 career appearances, 24 starts, at Truist Field.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Miami has had their struggles this season but they are coming off a shutout win over Jacob deGrom and the Mets Saturday, giving them a little momentum going into Sunday’s action. The Marlins have to find a way to get some more offensive production, especially when Alcantara is on the mound. Miami hasn’t done much to help get him support on the hill, which is why he still is looking for his first win. Fried has struggled mightily in his first two starts and getting rocked by the Nationals doesn’t instill confidence in him. Until he turns things around, you have to fade him a little bit. Give the edge to the Marlins here as they steal one on the road.

Prediction: Miami Marlins +123

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Marlins have been very good at staying under the number this season. Entering Sunday, Miami has seen the under hit in five of their eight games with one push in the mix. The Marlins are last in the majors as they are putting up an average of three runs per game this season. Miami stands 13th in runs allowed as they give up an average of four runs a night, giving them an average total of seven runs per game. Atlanta has split their eight games in regards to the total with four going over and four falling short of the mark. The Braves are tied for 20th with an average of 3.75 runs per game this season. Atlanta stands tied for third by allowing 3.25 runs per contest, giving them an average total of seven runs per game. Fried has sputtered but with the Marlins still struggling to get the bats going, this one ends up falling short of the mark.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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