Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1953 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#1954 New York Mets
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in the second of a three-game divisional series on Tuesday evening. The Phillies will give the nod to their ace Aaron Nola who led the Phillies to an 8-2 win over the Mets last Wednesday. The Mets are countering with Taijuan Walker. The Phillies won two of three over the Mets last week.

Aaron Nola Eyes First Win of Season

Aaron Nola will make his third start of the season, searching for his first victory. Nola has looked good in his two starts. First, he limited the tough Braves lineup to only two runs in 6.2 frames and allowed one run in four innings against the Mets in his next performance. He features a 2.53 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through two starts. The ace posted a stellar 3.28 ERA in 2020. Nola has contained the Mets bats throughout his career, registering a 3.26 ERA and an 8-2 record.

The Phillies were able to avoid the sweep in Atlanta with a narrow 6-5 win on Sunday night. The pitching was solid against the Mets last week however overall it has not been quite as effective after a promising start to the year.

Watch for Rhys Hoskins who had a big series against the Mets last week, collecting 7 hits in 11 at-bats with a homer and two RBI’s. The 28-year old first baseman has bashed two home runs along with five RBI’s and a .944 OPS on the season. Hoskins went 1 for 11 in Atlanta this past weekend.

Philly stands 17th overall with an average of 4.22 runs on the season. They have posted a 3.70 team ERA, landing them 12th in the big leagues.

Walker Shines in Mets Debut

Taijuan Walker will make his second start of the season on Tuesday. Walker was outstanding in his Mets debut, scattering only two runs in six innings agains the Marlins, finishing with the no-decision in a game the Mets won. The veteran right-hander spent time with the Mariners and Blue Jays in 2020 and was outstanding late in the season. He finished with a 2.70 ERA in 53.1 innings of work and could prove to be a very diligent addition by the Mets management. Walker limited the Phillies to one run in six innings in his only career meeting.

The New York Mets season has been plagued with postponements. They have only played five games entering Monday with only two wins to show for their efforts. The bats have been sluggish as they only managed a combined three runs in their two games against the Marlins.

Francisco Lindor is expected to generate big numbers this season after signing his 10-year mega-contract, however, so far he has not lived up to the hype. The 27-year old is hitting an abysmal .176 with only one RBI in six games played on the season. Lindor does not have any extra-base hit however it is still very early in a 162 game season.

The Mets are scoring an average of only 3.20 runs per game, ranking them down at 21st overall. They have recorded a 3.77 team ERA, placing them 15th in the big leagues.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Phillies have ace Aaron Nola on the mound and the right-hander has only allowed three runs in his 10.2 innings of work which included only one run against the Mets in his previous start in a game Philly won 8-2. Nola has neutralized the Mets throughout his career, sporting a 3.26 ERA complemented by an 8-2 record. This is only a seven-inning game and Nola will pitch deep into the game.

Furthermore, the Mets offense is slumping. They have only played five games due to postponements which makes it difficult to find a groove. New York has scored three or fewer runs in four of their five games on the season.  

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies +122

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Mets’ struggling offense has a challenging matchup against Aaron Nola when considering their poor start at the plate. They only scored one run against Nola last week and the Phillies’ bullpen has been solid. The Mets’ big hitters have yet to produce and Philly’s pitching has been their top strength so far. The under is 17-7-1 in the Mets’ last 25 games in the second game of a series.

In addition, Mets' starter Marcus Stroman should limit the Phillies' offense. The right-hander was sharp in his debut, conceding only one run in six innings against this Phillies team last week. The under is 5-1-1 in the Mets’ last seven home games.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Mets team total is a solid prop. The Mets have scored three or fewer runs in two of their three games against the Phillies this season. I expect Nola to pitch five to six innings and the Phillies’ bullpen wins owns respectable 3.73 ERA on the season.

Prediction: Mets Team Total Under 2.5

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am going with the Phillies to score first. The Mets have done nothing early in games. They have yet to score in the first and second inning and have tallied just one run in the third frame. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ highest scoring stretch is innings 1-3 with 24 runs.

Prediction: Phillies to Score First
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.