The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in the three-game series finale Thursday afternoon from Miller Park. The Cubs will send a confident Jake Arrieta to the mound, and the Brew Crew will give the call to Corbin Burnes. The Brewers won two of three in Chicago last week and tallied a 6-3 in Monday's series opener. The Cubs answered with a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night.
Arrieta Silences Pirates, Targets Third Straight Win
Jake Arrieta will get the call for the third time of the season in this one. Arrieta has looked great in his two performances. The veteran right-hander was stellar in his season debut, holding the Pirates to only one run in six innings. He also battled the Pirates in his second start and gave up two runs in six innings, leading to a dazzling 2.25 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Arrieta is looking to rebound from a rough 2020 season that resulted in a 5.08 ERA. The former Cy Young winner has fared well against the Brewers in his career, posting a 9-7 record and a 3.30 ERA.
Well, the Cubs issues at the plate have been the story of the season. They remain last with an abysmal .165 team batting average. They could not solve the Pirates this past weekend with only a total of seven runs in that series and have done almost nothing against Milwaukee.
The Cubs’ offense has been inconsistent this season and Anthony Rizzo continues to slump this season. The 28-year old slugger is only hitting .118 with one homer and two RBI’s. Rizzo’s woes are a bit of a concern after posting a .222 average with 24 RBI’s in 2020. He went 0 for 11 against the Brewers last week and 0 for 4 in Monday's loss.
The Cubs rank 28th overall with an average of 2.90 runs on the season. They have recorded a 4.30 team ERA, landing them 17th in the Majors.
Burns Tosses Another Gem, Shaw Shines
The Brewers will call on Corbin Burnes in the series finale. Burnes has been outstanding in his two outings. He limited the Twins to one run in 6.1 frames in his first performance and followed by holding the Cardinals to zero runs on one hit in six innings. Unfortunately, the Brewers lost both of those clashes. The right-hander has allowed just two hits and features a 0.73 ERA and a remarkable 0.16 WHIP. He has not been able to contain the Cubs, conceding 12 runs in 18 career innings against the division foes.
The Brew Crew have rebounded from their poor 1-3 start to the season in a big way with a series win against the Cubs last week, followed by another triumphant series against the Cardinals prior to this one. Christian Yelich did not play in Monday’s game with a back injury and is questionable.
Hader saves! https://t.co/Zm4RtMhpys— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 13, 2021
Travis Shaw has been the Brewers' top run producer through 10 games, accumulating 10 RBI’s. The 30-year old third baseman is hitting a decent .276 along with a .861 OPS. Shaw with 1 for 11 with a home run and three RBI’s against the Cubs this season. Kolton Wong is out of action.
The Brewers are scoring an average of 4.40 runs per game, placing them 15th overall. They enter with a fantastic 3.20 team ERA, good for seventh in the big leagues.
The Chicago Cubs are:
- 3-7 in their last 10 games against the Brewers.
- 1-5 in their last 6 games overall entering Tuesday.
- 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
The Milwaukee Brewers are:
- 5-1 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter.
- 5-0 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP above 1.30.
- 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
The Brewers have Corbin Burnes on the mound and the right-hander has been incredible, limiting his opponents to only a combined one run and two hits in 12.1 innings, and he was up against solid lineups in the Twins and Cardinals. Overall this Brewers squad is playing well, collecting the win in five out of their last seven games.
Furthermore, while Cubs’ starter Jake Arrieta has thrived in his two starts this season, he pitched against the poor Pirates' offense in both outings. Arrieta has struggled over the last few seasons including a 5.08 ERA in 2020. The Cubs have not looked good this season and have lost five out of their last seven clashes overall.
Full-Game Total Pick
The Brewers’ offense has a ton of momentum after a sluggish start to the year. They scored 20 runs in three games against the Cardinals this past weekend and collected six runs in the first clash of this series. The over is also 4-1 in the Brewers’ last five home games.
In addition, while I expect Burnes to do enough to lead his team to a win, the Cubs offense has enjoyed success against him as the right-hander has filed a poor 6.00 ERA against the division foes. The over is also 5-1-1 in the Cubs’ last seven road games.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The under on the Cubs team total is a solid prop bet. Milwaukee has limited the Cubs to only a combined seven runs in the three-game series last week and just six runs in the first two clashes of this series. The Cubs have a few key hitters slumping and they remain last with a .165 team batting average on the season.
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
I am selecting the Brewers to score first. Milwaukee is a threat in the opening inning where they have tallied eight runs in their 11 games on the season. The Cubs have especially struggled early in games as they are hitting .189 with a combined 11 runs through the first three innings.