Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#911 Baltimore Orioles 10.5 vs.
#912 Boston Red Sox -240
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 11:05am EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles in their annual Patriots’ Day game Monday morning from Fenway Park. The Orioles will give the call to 30-year old right-hander Dan Straily, and 30-year old right-hander Hector Velazquez is expected to take the mound for the Red Sox. The Red Sox won the first game of the series 6-4 on Friday, and the Orioles won Saturday’s contest by a 9-5 score.

Straily Hit Hard in First Two Outings

Dan Straily will make his third appearance and second start of the season, eying his first victory. Straily was shelled in his latest effort, surrendering five runs including two home runs in 3.1 innings against the Athletics. The veteran right-hander allowed five runs in 1.1 innings against the Yankees in his only other appearance this season. Straily has conceded seven runs (six earned) in nine career innings against the Red Sox. Xander Boagaerts is 1 for 5 against Straily, while Mookie Betts and JD Martinez are both 1 for 3.

Joey Rickard hasn’t been able to find his swing this season, hitting an abysmal .189, and he has yet to record an RBI this month. The 27-year old right fielder went 9 for 38 with two RBI’s against the Red Sox last season, and he is 0 for 4 in this series. Rickard collected 23 RBI’s in 79 games in 2018. 

Baltimore is scoring an average of 4.73 runs per game, ranking them 15th in the Majors. The Orioles pitching staff continues to falter, carrying a terrible 6.41 team ERA on the season, pegging them 29th overall. Baltimore possesses a 5-3 road record heading into Sunday’s action.

Velazquez Makes Spot Start

Hector Velazquez will be used in a spot starting role in this one. Velazquez made a spot start on April 7th and he tossed three scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Diamondbacks. The third-year right-hander has allowed four runs (three earned) in 9.2 innings this season. Velazquez has limited the Orioles to four runs paired with a 1-0 record 11.2 career innings. Trey Mancini is 3 for 5 against Velazquez, while Joey Rickard and Jonathan Villar are both 0 for 2.

Andrew Benintendi dominated the Orioles pitching last season, recording a stellar .385 average with four home runs and 21 RBI’s in 65 plate appearances, and he is 3 for 6 with one RBI through two games in this series. The 24-year old left fielder is hitting .318 this month, and he owns a .286 average with one homer and six RBI’s on the season. Boston holds a 2-2 record at Fenway Park heading into Sunday’s contest.

The Red Sox are averaging 4.60 runs per game, ranking them 18th in the big leagues. The Boston pitching has played a large role in their slow start to the season. They own a weak 6.27 team ERA, positioning them 28th in the Majors. 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect another convincing win from the Red Sox. Orioles’ starter Dan Straily was roughed up in both of his starts this season, surrendering five runs in both outings against the Yankees and Athletics, and he has conceded four home runs.

Furthermore, the Red Sox are in a groove at the plate, scoring at least five runs in four consecutive games. The Orioles have dropped eight out of their last 10 games heading into Sunday, and I expect the Red Sox to take this one by multiple runs.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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This contest should feature plenty of runs. The Red Sox should have no problem generating multiple runs against a struggling starter in Dan Straily and an O’s bullpen that holds a terrible 7.46 ERA on the season, plus the over is 6-1-2 in the Red Sox’ last nine games against a team with a losing record, and 12-3-2 in their last 17 home games.

In addition, the Orioles are consistently pushing runs across, plating at least four runs in three consecutive games heading into Sunday, plus the over is 8-1 in the Orioles’ last nine games overall.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Red Sox team total is a strong option. The Red Sox have fared well against O’s starter Dan Straily, scoring a combined seven runs in nine innings against the right-hander. Also, Boston has scored a combined 15 runs through the first three games of this divisional series.

Prediction: Red Sox Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am expecting some early offense in this one. The Orioles’ are productive in the first inning where they have scored 15 runs on 17 hits in 16 games on the season. In addition, the Red Sox have a good chance of getting to the struggling Dan Straily early in this one.

Prediction: A Run in the First Inning Yes

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.