Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#909 Colorado Rockies 7 vs.
#910 San Diego Padres -160
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 10:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

When and Where: Monday, April 15, Petco Park, San Diego, Calif., 10:10 p.m. EDT.

After a rough outing on the road, Joey Lucchesi looks to regain his dominant home form Monday night when the San Diego Padres begin a two-game set with the struggling Colorado Rockies.

Senzatela set for season debut for Rockies

Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) has been tabbed to make his season debut as the Rockies (4-12) look to win back-to-back games for the first time since opening the season with two victories.

The right-hander was put on the injured list twice last year due to a blister problem on the middle finger of his throwing hand and shoulder inflammation. Senzatela was put on the injured list before the start of this season due to an infection from a blister on his right heel.

The 24-year-old ended 2018 on a positive note, going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA over his final three starts — allowing one run in each of them. Senzatela took a tough-luck loss against the Padres in his only start against them last season, giving up one run in six innings of a 7-0 road defeat.

He also made four relief appearances versus San Diego, picking up a win in one of them and finishing with a 4.05 ERA over 13 1-3 innings in his five outings. Senzatela went 3-0 in as many starts against the Padres as a rookie in 2017.

The righty will have a tough act to follow after German Marquez carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Sunday’s 4-0 victory over San Francisco that snapped an eight-game losing streak for the Rockies.

Lucchesi out to extend home shutout streak

Lucchesi (2-1, 4.40) got off to a fast start, winning his first two outings while scattering seven hits and three walks over 10 1-3 shutout innings. That type of dominance, though, did not follow him to northern California as the San Francisco Giants teed off on him for seven runs and seven hits in four innings — six of those runs coming in the second — of San Diego’s 7-2 loss Tuesday night.

“A weird inning there,” Lucchesi told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I felt like I got a little unlucky, to be honest. But it did happen, so it’s my fault.”

The left-hander fared well against the Rockies as a rookie last year, going 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts. In the two outings at Petco Park, Lucchesi yielded three runs and seven hits in 10 innings, and he held opposing Colorado hitters to a .208 batting average overall.

Nolan Arenado had some success versus the southpaw, going 4 for 10 with a triple, and Trevor Story‘s two hits in nine at-bats have been a double and a homer.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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With the Rockies foundering and off to their worst start in club history, this game is tailor-made for Lucchesi to have a solid bounce-back outing. He pitched well against Colorado last season and essentially has had one bad inning in his three starts thus far.

Prediction: Padres -159

Full-Game Total Pick

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The under hit comfortably in Lucchesi’s two home starts this year and has a track record of delivering in this matchup. The under has hit in seven of the last eight meetings between the teams and four of the last five at Petco Park. Senzatela is an unknown quantity, but the expectation is Lucchesi will do the heavy lifting.

Prediction: UNDER 7.5 runs (-110)

Full-Game Prop Bet

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This is a confidence pick in Lucchesi keeping the Rockies bats quiet. Colorado is hitting just .201 on the season and held to three or fewer runs in eight of its last nine road games. The Padres have not been much better, entering this contest hitting .231 overall.

Prediction: UNDER 24.5 runs+hits+errors (-115)

First Five Innings Side Pick

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Another confidence pick in Lucchesi, who has yet to give up a run at home. He also held the Rockies to two or fewer runs in three of his four starts against them as a rookie last year.

Prediction: Padres -0.5 runs (-110)

First Five Innings Total Bet

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In addition to Lucchesi’s track record versus Colorado, Senzatela was a fairly effective starter last year, giving up two or fewer runs in the first five innings in five of his final six starts of 2018.

Prediction: UNDER 3.5 runs (-110)

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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This one is likely more contingent on Senzatela than it is Lucchesi since the Padres southpaw has yet to allow a first-inning run in his three outings this season. He also had a solid 2.77 first-inning ERA in 26 starts last year as a rookie. By contrast, Senzatela had a 5.54 ERA in the opening frame of his 18 starts, but also only gave up first-inning runs in two of his final nine starts.

Prediction: NO to 1st-inning run (-140)

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.