Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#961 Colorado Rockies 7.5 vs.
#962 San Diego Padres -110
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 9:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

When and Where: Tuesday, April 16, Petco Park, San Diego, Calif., 9:10 p.m. EDT.

Off to an impressive start to his career, Padres rookie Nick Margevicius looks to deliver another quality outing Tuesday night when San Diego completes its two-game series versus the Colorado Rockies.

Gray hoping for run support in bid to avoid fourth loss

Jon Gray (0-3, 4.19 ERA) turned in his best outing of the season last time out but was still saddled with a loss as the Rockies failed to back him with any offense. The right-hander served allowed five hits in 6 2-3 innings Thursday against San Francisco, but the seventh-inning solo homer by Kevin Pillar was enough to result in a 1-0 road loss.

“I wanted to get strike one on Pillar but I left the pitch up too much,” Gray told The Associated Press. “It was a good slider but I just put it in the wrong place and he put a good swing on it.”

He also equaled a dubious National League record by allowing at least one home run for the 15th consecutive start. Gray, who has been backed with one run in his three starts in 2019, has served up 19 gopher balls in 85 1-3 innings during that run.

Though Padres hitters have accounted for three of those round-trippers, Gray has beaten San Diego twice in that span as part of a three-start winning streak against the NL West rival. The righty has gone 6-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight starts versus the Padres since the start of 2017 and is 8-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 15 career matchups.

Wil Myers is 9 for 26 with a homer and three doubles in their meetings, while newly acquired third baseman Manny Machado went 3 for 7 with a homer in their interleague matchups. Hunter Renfroe has made the most of his three at-bats versus Gray, belting a pair of solo homers.

Margevicius turning heads with solid outings

Margevicius (1-1, 1.69) has made a surprisingly smooth transition to major league pitching considering the 22-year-old started last season at low Single-A. The left-hander has limited opponents to a .161 batting average, and two of the three runs he has given up have scored via solo homers.

Margevicius notched his first victory Wednesday, giving up a solo homer and four other hits in six innings of San Diego’s 3-1 win. He struck out six and threw 54 of his 77 pitches for strikes.

“Going into the game I felt my stuff was going to be all right. I was working in the bullpen on my slider,” the rookie southpaw told The AP. “It wasn’t quite where I wanted it, but once I got into the game and started throwing it a little I got more comfortable with it. I felt pretty confident with my pitches. I felt pretty good.”

The biggest surprise in Margevicius’ three starts is right-handed hitters are just 5 for 39 against him. The lefty has also allowed just two hits in the first through third innings of his starts, and opponents are 1 for 25 in his first time through a lineup.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Margevicius’ early success makes him worth taking a flyer on in this contest, especially with the Rockies failing to score runs when Gray pitches. The rookie southpaw has a solid mix of pitches, and without a detailed scouting report against him available yet, the Padres are the pick in this one.

Prediction: Padres -110

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

A bit of a risk since Margevicius is a rookie, but this has the sneaky feel of a pitchers’ duel between he and Gray in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Rockies have failed to solve opposing starting pitchers in general, having scored two runs or less in the first five innings in 13 of their 17 games after Monday night’s 5-2 win.

Prediction: UNDER 7.5 runs (-105)

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

It’s an all-in with Margevicius given his surprisingly old-school demeanor and effectiveness in the early going, coupled with Colorado’s inconsistencies in plating runs early in games. San Diego’s bullpen also has a respectable 3.48 ERA at home in the early going.

Prediction: Rockies UNDER 3.5 runs (-120)

First Five Innings Side Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

As good as Margevicius has been, the Padres have not given him much to work with early in games. He has yet to have a lead after five innings despite giving up just two runs in those three starts. Gray is good enough where he can at least match the rookie left-hander and squeeze out a win for Colorado with the half-run.

Prediction: Rockies +0.5 runs (-145)

First Five Innings Total Bet

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Rating:

Both pitchers have hit the five-inning under in all three of their starts, and Gray has dealt with the same lack of run support early as the Rockies have plated one run in the first five innings of his three outings.

Prediction: UNDER 4 runs (-120)

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Neither pitcher has been reached for a first-inning run, and Margevicius has taken it one step further by not allowing a hit in the opening frame. Gray has worked out of trouble in the first in his last two starts, but the hedge here is he gets the job done with less drama this time.

Prediction: NO to 1st-inning run (-140)

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.