Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#951 New York Mets 9.5 vs.
#952 Philadelphia Phillies -120
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Sporty Jordy



#951 New York
#952 Philadelphia


This article covers a past game!

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When and where: April 16, 2019, Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA, 7:05 PM ET

The New York Mets will try to put the Philadelphia Phillies on the ropes when the NL East rivals meet in Game 2 of their ensuing three-game series. An all-offensive game ended with Mets PH Juan Lagares scoring the game-winning run in extra innings (11th) on an error by Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Steven Matz is expected to occupy the mound for the Mets in the rematch opposite of Philadelphia’s Nick Pivetta.

Pitching problems linger for the Mets

After taking a commanding two-game lead in the series, the Mets suffered pitching meltdowns in back-to-back games against the Braves. First, it was Jason Vargas and Corey Oswalt giving up a combined nine runs in a span of only 3.3 innings, and then it was pitching ace and two-time All-Star Jacob deGrom giving up four walks, five hits and three runs, including two homers.

There were more questions than answers for the Mets after blowing it on the road and splitting the four-game series with the Braves.

“I’m not really throwing the ball where I want to right now,” deGrom said, via “Kind of cutting the fastball, yanking the slider, changeup is good at times but at other times it’s not. I don’t know if it’s something mechanical. I’ll have to get in there and figure it out.”

Although the Mets managed to steal Game 1 on the road against the Phillies on Monday, the pitching still struggled with Noah Syndergaard getting the start. The former MLB All-Star struck out nine batters in five innings, while also allowing nine hits, five earned runs and walking three.

Fortunately for the Mets, their bats came through, in the end, to propel the offense this time. Brandon Nimmo cracked a home run over the wall and turned a walk into a run, while Jeff McNeil finished with three hits in five at-bats in the 7-6 victory.

Can Phillies continue to lean on starters?

Does anyone remember when the Phillies were getting by in spite of their pitching? That narrative hasn’t completely changed, but it has been altered to some degree. While the Phillies starting rotation is still far from being considered trustworthy, they have shown some signs of improvement in recent outings.

Take the previous series against the Marlins for example. Righty Vince Velasquez held them to one run and two hits, while striking out four, in his six innings on the mound in Game 3. That standout performance followed Jake Arrieta’s gem in Game 1—eight strikeouts, while allowing only five hits and one run.

Where is Game 2, you ask? Well, that game would count as one of those in spite of pitching performances. It remains to be seen if the Phillies can actually rely on their pitching finally getting to a point of consistency. That would be the next logical step in the team improving from a previous 80-82 record.

It was another step backwards on Monday night with Aaron Nola on the mound. The right-handed pitcher gave up seven hits, five runs and walked three in four innings. However, the Phillies were in the game all the way up until Hoskins failed to come up with a grounder at first base in the 11th inning, leading to a Mets victory.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


There are warranted pitching concerns on both sides with these two teams. However, in this particular match-up, Matz has a clear and distinct advantage over Pivetta. Matz has a 3.57 ERA in 22.2 innings working against the Phillies in the last three years, while Pivetta is throwing a 6.39 against the Mets in 25.2 innings.

The Mets have also been a solid road team so far this season, winning eight of their last 11 games. There are bound to be struggles from Pivetta on the mound facing an offense with a top-10 batting average (.268) and fourth in on base percentage (.355). In 12.4 innings, Pivetta has already given up three homers, 24 hits and 14 earned runs to opponents.

He could be in big trouble against the Mets, who have only lost three games on the road. The Phillies have a tendency of playing themselves out of games they should win, and this game will be no different. Give me the Mets to take the lead in the NL East in this one.

Prediction: New York Mets (+100)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The over is 4-0 in Pivetta’s last four starts against the Mets. Unless Pivetta is suddenly able to exorcise his demons, history has made it incredibly clear that he doesn’t pitch well against the Mets. That sets New York up for another strong offensive performance en route to their second straight win. They’ll pile up the runs in this one. Take the over for this game.

Prediction: Over (9)

Written By Jordy McElroy , "Sporty Jordy"

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