Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4967 Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
#4968 Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, April 18, 2021 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s a battle of NL Central opponents on the diamond in Cream City. The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road as they play the final game of a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Friday night, it was the Pirates earning a 6-1 victory to draw first blood in the set between the teams. The pitching matchup for the middle game of the set Saturday night saw Trevor Cahill get the call for the Pirates against the Brewers’ Brett Anderson. First pitch from American Family Field was scheduled for 7:10 pm ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates Hoping to Maintain Recent Success

Pittsburgh won the opening game of this set Friday night, extending their recent hot streak as they won for the fifth time in seven games after starting the year 1-6. The Pirates entered Saturday fourth in the NL Central, 2.5 games behind the Reds for the top spot in the division race. In Friday’s game, Pittsburgh got two hits from Adam Frazier (run, two RBI) to lead their eight-hit attack in the game. Gregory Polanco (his second) and Colin Moran (his third) each homered in the victory for the Pirates. JT Brubaker (2-0) picked up the win on the mound as he threw six innings, allowing one run on four hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.

Chad Kuhl is expected to take the mound and make his fourth start of the season in this contest for the Pirates. He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, a 2.063 WHIP, a league-high 15 walks and eight strikeouts over 10.2 innings of work on the year. Kuhl didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came at home against the Padres Tuesday night. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits with seven walks and one strikeout in a game the Pirates went on to win 8-4. Kuhl makes his ninth career appearance and eighth start against the Brewers in this contest. He comes in 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA, a 1.056 WHIP, 15 walks and 39 strikeouts over 41.2 innings of work. Kuhl is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA, a 1.027 WHIP, seven walks and 25 strikeouts over 24.1 innings in four career starts at American Family Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Look to Prevail on Getaway Day

Milwaukee’s bats were held in check on Friday night in the opener of this set as they were knocked off. In the process, the team fell out of first place in the NL Central as they entered Saturday second in the division, one game behind the Reds. In Friday’s contest, Milwaukee finished with only five hits with no player having more than one. Tyrone Taylor drove in the lone run for the Brewers with an RBI double in the fifth inning but that wasn’t enough to lift Milwaukee to victory. Adrian Houser (1-2) took the loss on the mound as he allowed three runs on five hits with one walk and three strikeouts over 4.1 innings of work.

Freddy Peralta is expected to get the ball for the Brewers as he makes his fourth appearance and third start of the season here. He comes in 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA, a 1.077 WHIP, nine walks and 24 strikeouts over 15 innings of work this season. Peralta earned the win in his last start, which came against the Cubs at home Monday night. He threw six innings, allowing one run on two hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts in a 6-3 Brewers triumph. Peralta makes his 11th career appearance and second start against the Pirates in this contest. He is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.293 WHIP, five walks and 24 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work. Peralta is 11-3 with one save, a 3.10 ERA, a 1.092 WHIP, 47 walks and 138 strikeouts over 101.2 innings in 37 career appearances, 10 starts, at American Family Field.

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Pittsburgh won the opener but the pitching matchup in this contest clearly doesn’t favor them. Kuhl has handed out 15 walks in 10.2 innings of work, which has caused major issues. He’s fortunate to have his ERA at 6.75 as his FIP mark is 8.86, more than two full runs above his actual number. Peralta has been sharp in his two starts this season and that has helped the Brewers in the early going. He shut down the Cubs in his last start and facing a Pittsburgh lineup that isn’t overpowering should be favorable for him as well. Milwaukee is at home and the Pirates’ win Friday night was just their second road win of the season. Give the advantage to the Brewers here on getaway day.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

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Pittsburgh has seen the over go 7-6-1 in their games entering Saturday’s action this season. The Pirates are tied for 19th in scoring as they average 4.14 runs per contest this year. Pittsburgh stands 22nd as they give up an average of 4.93 runs a night, giving them an average total of 9.07 runs a night this season. Milwaukee has seen the under post a 7-5-1 mark in their games on the year. The Brewers are 18th in the majors as they put up an average of 4.15 runs a night this season. Milwaukee stands fourth in run prevention as they allow an average of 3.46 runs per game, giving them an average total of 7.61 runs a contest. The Pirates are averaging 3.29 runs a game on the road this year going into Saturday’s game compared to five runs a game at home. With Kuhl’s issues throwing strikes, you have to think this is a prime chance for the Brewers to break out. This one ends up over the mark.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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