Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1909 Milwaukee Brewers vs.
#1910 San Diego Padres
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 10:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Milwaukee Brewers will head on the road to Petco Park for the second game of their National League series battle versus the San Diego Padres.

These two teams opened their three-game series on Monday night. Milwaukee comes in with an 8-7 overall record through 15 games, good for second place in the National League Central standings. The Padres are 3.5-games back of the NL West lead with a 10-7 record through 17 contests.

Can the Padres close the gap in the division race with a win over the Brewers on Tuesday night?

Burnes remains electric through three starts

Corbin Burnes is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Brewers in their second game against the Padres at Petco Park. Burnes went from posting an 8.82 ERA in 2019 to turning himself into an NL Cy Young candidate this year.

The 26-year-old has been dominant through his first three starts, allowing no more than two hits and one run while completing at least six innings of work on all three occasions. Burnes has struck out 30 batters in 18 ⅓ frames this season without issuing a walk and is five strikeouts from matching Adam Wainwright’s MLB record of 35 strikeouts before issuing his first free pass.

In his last start, Burnes struck out 10 Cubs batters in six scoreless innings of two-hit ball. The Brewers right-hander owns a sparkling 14.73 K/9 strikeout rate and a FIP of 0.87. This will be Burnes’ first career start against the Padres. He has made two career relief appearances against them, allowing one run in two innings of work. According to Baseball Savant, current Padres are batting .300 in 11 plate appearances off Burnes heading into Tuesday’s matchup.

Paddack struggling to return to 2019 form

The Padres will counter with right-hander Chris Paddack, who has allowed exactly three runs in each of his first three starts of the season. The 25-year-old is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season. In his previous trip to the mound, Paddack allowed three runs (one earned) in five innings of work in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Paddack’s fastball velocity is up this season but he’s striking out a career-low 6.92 batters per nine innings of work through three starts. His walk rate is also up to a career-worst 4.15 batters per nine and he’s yet to allow a home run yet this season, so some regression could be on the way for the Padres’ righty.

In his lone career start against the Brewers, Paddack allowed just one run in five innings of work with nine strikeouts in a no-decision back in 2019. According to Baseball Savant, current Brewers are hitless in 11 plate appearances off of the Padres’ righty heading into Tuesday’s game.

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It’s hard not to like the Brewers in this spot. Paddack’s peripherals leave a lot to be desired through three starts. He is currently posting the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career and comes in with 4.15 ERA despite not allowing a home run yet this season. On the other hand, Burnes has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, striking out 30 batters without issuing a walk. Take Milwaukee at this price on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers +105

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These two teams are only projected for seven runs but even that might be a stretch given how well Burnes has been pitching this season. The Brewers’ right-hander has tossed three consecutive quality starts, allowing one run or fewer in all three of his starts this season. Meanwhile, Paddack has held things together through his first three starts, allowing three runs or less on each occasion, and he performed well in his only start versus the Brewers two seasons ago. Look for both starters to have strong outings and take this game to stay under the projected total on Tuesday evening. 

Prediction: Under 7
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.