Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1943 Milwaukee Brewers vs.
#1944 San Diego Padres
Wednesday, April 21, 2021 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Doug Gilghrist

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The Milwaukee Brewers conclude their three-game series in San Diego, as they take on the Padres on Wednesday afternoon. The Brewers won game one of the series on Monday night by a score of 3-1. The middle game of the series takes place on Tuesday evening. Milwaukee entered play on Tuesday in second place in the National League East, just one-half game behind the Cincinnati Reds. The Padres are in third place in the National League West, 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. This preview was written before Tuesday's game.

In the first game of the series on Monday, Milwaukee used three solo home runs by the bottom of their batting order to secure the victory. Sixth-place batter Billy McKinney, seventh-place hitter Luis Urias, and pinch hitter Tyrone Taylor, batting in the nine spot all went deep for the Brewers, who had just five hits total in the game. Starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff gave up just one run on one hit in six innings of work to get his first win of the season. San Diego, who was able to manage just two hits in the game, was shut out over the final eight innings after taking a 1-0 lead in the first inning.

Brewers limp their way towards first place

A win over one of the best teams in the National League...on the road...against a pitcher who threw a no-hitter just a couple of weeks ago, should be cause for celebration for any team. However, Monday night's win for the Milwaukee Brewers came at a price. Urias, who hit a home run in his first at bat in San Diego since being traded by the Padres, felt a cramp in his leg as he rounded the bases. He was removed for precautionary measures the following inning, and his status is unclear for the rest of the series.

“I kind of hit it and I told myself, ‘You got this one.’ It felt pretty good,” Urías said on mlb.com. “And then I kind of saw their right fielder going after the ball and I wanted to go harder. That’s when I felt it.”

For a team that already has Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Kolten Wong on the IL, Milwaukee can ill afford to lose another piece of their starting lineup. They have struggled since that trio has been out of the lineup, as they are just 3-3 over their last six games. Avisail Garcia has been their best offensive performer this season, as he is batting .259 with three home runs (both team-leading totals) and 10 RBI. Travis Shaw is leading the team with 13 RBI. Catcher Omar Navarez, who is a few plate appearances shy of being included among the batting leaders, is batting .350 in 40 at-bats this season. Milwaukee is hitting just .206 (through Monday's game), but they have 19 home runs on the season. The Brewers pitching staff has carried them so far this season, as they have a 2.92 ERA. All five of their starters have an ERA of 3.14 or lower this season.

The Brewers will send Adrian Houser to the mound on Wednesday afternoon. He has been their worst starting pitcher this season, as he is just 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA. He is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up three runs in 4.1 innings in a 6-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday. Houser has made one start (and two appearances) against the Padres in his career. He is 0-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 8.1 innings pitched. He has fared very well against the current members of the Padres, as they are batting just .100 with seven strikeouts in 20 career at bats.

Padres struggles continue in series opener

The San Diego Padres were once sitting pretty at 8-3, as they tried to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. Since then, they have lost five of seven games, and are just two games above .500 now. While the Brewers have been losing some of their star players to injury, the Padres recently got one of theirs back. Fernando Tatis, Jr., a 2019 Rookie of the Year finalist, returned to the linuep on Friday. He has struggled since his return, going just 1-16 in his last four games. For the season, Tatis, Jr. is batting just .118 with two home runs and three RBI. The Padres are hitting .236 as a team and have hit 17 home runs. Eric Hosmer leads the team in batting average (.323), home runs (three), and RBI (14). Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Trent Grisham have also hit three home runs apiece. Jake Cronenworth is hitting .310 this season with an .826 OPS. Cronenworth, Machado, Hosmer, and Myers all have an OPS over .820 this season. San Diego has pitched very well this season, as they have a team ERA of just 2.52 with a 0.99 WHIP. Their bullpen has been nearly as good as their starters this season, posting a 2.70 ERA in 76.2 innings in relief this season.

Dinelson Lamet makes his season debut on Wednesday for the Padres. He has not pitched since September 26, as arm trouble shut down his season in 2020.

“It’s going to be a nice pickup in that clubhouse just to have his presence in there,” manager Jayce Tingler said on mlb.com.

Until his injury, he was simply nasty in 2020. He was 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts in just 69 innings pitched. Lamet finally came into his own last season, after having a losing record and an ERA above 4.00 in each of his first two seasons in the big leagues. Opposing hitters hit just .161 against him last season. Lamet has faced the Brewers twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings pitched.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Milwaukee Brewers have not played great over the last week, going 3-3, but they have been playing better than the San Diego Padres, who have lost five of their last seven games. The Brewers pitching staff has been unbelievable this season, especially the starting pitching. Their 'worst' starting pitcher pitches on Wednesday, and he has an ERA just over 3.00. Padres batters have hit just .100 in their careers versus Adrian Houser, so look for him to continue his dominance against them on Wednesday. Dinelson Lamet hasn't pitched in nearly seven months for San Diego. Don't expect him to be as dominant as he was last season in his first outing of 2021. He will probably also be on a limited pitch count in his first start coming off of an injury. Milwaukee's offense has been better than San Diego's offense this season, and one of the Padres' best hitters, Tatis, Jr. is hitting just .118 this season. The Brewers pitching staff has given up the fewest hits in the Major Leagues this season (6.1 per game), and they gave up just one run on two hits in the series opener. This will be another close game, with Milwaukee either winning or losing by one run on Wednesday afternoon.

Prediction: Milwaukee +1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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This is a matchup of two of the best pitching staffs in baseball. San Diego ranks second in runs given up per game (3.28), fourth in hits allowed per game (6.5), third in walks allowed per game (2.6), and second in strikeouts per game (11.0). Milwaukee is first in hits allowed (6.1) and fourth in runs allowed per game (3.31). The first game of this series had just four total runs scored. The Padres have scored a total of six runs in their last three games, while they have given up just seven runs in their last three games. The over-under is a combined 12-21-1 for these two teams this season. The total has gone under in each of San Diego's last three games, while the over-under is 1-4-1 in Milwaukee's last six games. Look for the pitching staffs to win the day again, so look for another low-scoring game in the series finale on Wednesday.

Prediction: Under 7.5
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Written By Doug Gilghrist , "Doug Gilghrist"

Doug has a Journalism degree from Slippery Rock University in Pennsylvania. He has been a passionate sports fan, especially Pittsburgh sports, for over 40 years. In his journalistic career, Doug has covered just about every sport imaginable and is now plying his trade for us here at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt. Doug has always been fascinated by numbers, especially as they relate to sports, so writing for this website is right up his alley.