Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#917 Detroit Tigers vs.
#918 Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Boston Red Sox will host the Detroit Tigers in the nightcap of a doubleheader Tuesday evening from Fenway Park. The Tigers will give the call to 26-year old right-hander Spencer Turnbull, and the Red Sox will likely send 30-year old right-hander Hector Velazquez to the mound. The Red Sox posted a 4-2 record against the Tigers last season.

Rookie Spencer Turnbull Shines Against Pirates

Spencer Turnbull will be on the mound for the fifth time of the year in this contest. Turnbull was tremendous in his previous start, conceding only one run (zero earned) in six innings against the  Pirates, leading to the no-decision in a game the Tigers lost. The rookie right-hander is pitching well, posting a strong 3.43 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP to go with an 0-2 record in 21 innings pitched. This start will mark his first career meeting against the Red Sox. Turnbull has accumulated 24 K’s in his 21 innings, resulting in a sharp 10.29 K/9 ratio.

Niko Goodrum has arguably been the Tigers most consistent hitter, posting a team-leading .279 average with two home runs and eight RBI’s. Goodrum wasn’t able to solve the Red Sox pitching last season, going 0 for 15 with two walks. The Tigers stand at 4-5 on the road this season.

The Tigers offense ranks near the bottom of the Majors in several categories, and they are averaging 3.05 runs per game on the season, ranking them down at 28th in the big leagues. The Detroit pitching staff has been a strength, sporting a 3.25 team ERA, good for fifth in the Majors. 

Eovaldi Injured, Velazquez Slides Into Rotation

Hector Velazquez is expected to get the start in this one in place of the injured Nathan Eovaldi. Velazquez has been used in a spot starting role this season and he has made a total of six appearances on the season. The third-year right-hander limited the Orioles to only one run in three innings in his last effort on April 15th. Overall he is pitching well, allowing five runs (four earned) paired with an 0-1 record in 12.2 innings logged on the season. Velazquez has tossed three shutout innings in his career against the Tigers.

Xander Bogaerts was productive against the Tigers last season, posting a .304 average with one home run and four RBI’s in 23 at bats. The 26-year old shortstop is consistently reaching base, posting a solid .300 batting average paired with a .386 OPS on the month. Bogaerts is hitting .276 with two homers and 10 RBI’s on the year. The Red Sox own a 3-3 record at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are averaging 4.23 runs per game, placing them 21st in the Majors. The Boston pitching staff has been a weakness, logging a 5.62 team ERA, positioning them 29th in the Major Leagues.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am siding with the underdog Detroit Tigers in this one. The Tigers have been very competitive this season, and they are receiving outstanding pitching. Tigers’ starter Spencer Turnbull is in a groove, holding his opposition to only five runs in his last three starts (16 innings), and he has displayed great control, issuing only seven walks in four starts.

Furthermore, the Red Sox are using spot starter Hector Velazquez in this one. He has not been pitching deep into games, and the Red Sox bullpen holds a subpar 4.78 ERA on the season.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am opting with the under in this matchup. I expect the Red Sox to at least contain a low-scoring Tigers lineup that ranks near the bottom of the Majors in several offensive categories. The Tigers are playing without their RBI leader Christin Stewart, plus the under is 8-1 in the Tigers’ last nine road games.

In addition, Tigers’ starter Spencer Turnbull is looking good, and the Tigers bullpen has been amongst the best in the Majors, standing fourth overall with a sharp 3.29 team ERA. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Tigers and Red Sox, and I expect that trend to resume in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Tigers team total is worth a look. The Tigers have shown some life at the plate, collecting a combined 16 runs in their last three games heading into game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader. In addition, the Red Sox have squandered at least four runs in eight out of their last ten games overall.

Prediction: Tigers Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I anticipate a scoreless first inning. The Red Sox have only plated eight runs paired with a terrible .190 team batting average in the first inning this season. Also, the Tigers have only scored five runs in the opening inning this season.

Prediction: A Run in the First Inning No

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.