Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#911 Washington Nationals -145 vs.
#912 Colorado Rockies 10
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 8:40pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

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Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

When and Where: Tuesday, April 23, Coors Field, Denver, Colo., 8:40 p.m. EDT.

Having finally notched his first win since joining the Washington Nationals, Patrick Corbin hopes the second one comes about Tuesday night when his team’s series continues against the Colorado Rockies.

Corbin looks for second straight winning start for Nats

Corbin (1-0, 2.36 ERA) finally broke through for his first win with the Nationals since signing a six-year, $140 million free agent deal in December.

The left-hander had not pitched all that badly in any of his previous three starts and has found a groove in the last two. Corbin limited the Giants to one run and two hits while striking out nine in 7 2-3 innings of a 4-2 victory Thursday.

“When he can throw strikes on both sides of the plate, he’s tough,” Manager Dave Martinez told The Washington Post. “He gets ahead of hitters [and] makes that slider that much better.”

Corbin has limited opposing hitters to a .198 batting average and struck out 33 in 26 2-3 innings, fanning at least nine in each of his last three outings.

The southpaw has plenty of experience against Colorado from his days with Arizona, entering this contest 8-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 20 career starts. Corbin split two decisions in four starts while posting a 5.12 ERA versus the Rockies last year.

He is 3-2 with a 6.45 ERA in 10 lifetime starts at Coors Field but has yielded three or fewer runs in the last three. Nolan Arenado has fared well against the lefty, going 12 for 41 with three home runs, and Charlie Blackmon is 11 for 39.

Mark Reynolds has just two hits in 15 at-bats in their matchups, but both of them have left the yard.

Rockies turning to Hoffman to fill Freeland’s spot

Kyle Freeland was originally supposed to start this game, but the Rockies put him on the injured list Monday with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. The move was done as a precaution to make sure he would only miss one turn in the rotation.

It was originally thought the Rockies would turn to Chad Bettis, who was skipped over his last turn due to an off day, but they instead will call up Jeff Hoffman (0-0, 9.35 ERA in 2018) from Triple-A Albuquerque after holding him out of his Monday scheduled start for the Isotopes. He had gone 0-2 with a 13.89 ERA in three appearances spanning 11 2-3 innings there.

The right-hander made one start and six overall appearances for Colorado last season, giving up nine runs and 15 hits in 8 2-3 innings. Hoffman’s lone start was forgettable, giving up three runs and eight hits in 3 1-3 innings and not factoring in the decision of a 10-7 victory July 13.

Hoffman lost his only career start against Washington in 2016, yielding four runs and six hits — two of them home runs — in six innings of an 8-5 road loss.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Hopefully, you had faith in Corbin to take the Nationals and lay the run line before the game was taken off. The money line of Nationals -150 is also a fairly good play considering the discrepancy of talent in opposing starters.

Prediction: Nationals -1.5 runs (-115)

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

A difficult pick given little is known about Hoffman between his limited action for the Rockies last season and his not-so-good appearances for Albuquerque in this one. Still, the under feels like the better play with the expectation Corbin will pitch well for a second consecutive start.

Prediction: UNDER 11 runs (-115)

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

About the only way this pick would have been under among the three Rockies starters who could have pitched this game would have been Freeland. There is little about Hoffman’s outings in Albuquerque that leads to the belief he is being sent out there to last as long as possible and lasting five innings regardless of performance is a satisfactory outcome for Colorado.

Prediction: Nationals OVER 5.5 runs (-135)

First Five Innings Side Pick

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There is little point in sitting on the Nationals money line of -160 if you’re going to take them in this instance against a fill-in starter, so the aggressive play of laying one-half run is the play. Washington has only trailed after five innings twice in its 10 road games, the issue is it has been tied after four of them. That should not happen here.

Prediction: Nationals -0.5 runs (-120)

First Five Innings Total Bet

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This is a pick against Hoffman more than anything else, with visions of his pitching line being somewhere around one run per inning with at least four innings pitched. That is enough to warrant taking the over, though it would not be surprising to see the Nationals hit the mark themselves.

Prediction: OVER 6 runs (-120)

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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Rating:

Both teams scored two runs in Monday night’s series opener, and it is difficult in putting any confidence behind Hoffman, even for a contrarian “no” pick at +135. Corbin has not given up a first-inning run in his four starts but also has let a baserunner reach scoring position in two of them.

Prediction: YES to 1st-inning run (-165)

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.