Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1993 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#1994 Colorado Rockies
Friday, April 23, 2021 at 8:40pm EDT
Written by Blake V.

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Colorado will be looking to build on a nice stretch of baseball when it hosts Philadelphia in Friday’s series opener. The Rockies have won three of their last four games after suffering a long losing streak. Philadelphia salved its series with the Giants by winning Wednesday’s series finale.

Phillies coming off solid win

Philadelphia opened the season with four consecutive wins before losing six of its next eight games. The Phillies have been sitting right around the .500 mark since that point. They lost two of their first three games against San Francisco earlier this week, but they salvaged the series with a 6-5 win on Wednesday. Bryce Harper hit a game-tying solo homer in the seventh inning and Andrew Knapp walked things off with a single in the ninth inning. All of that came after Philadelphia had blown a 3-0 lead and trailed 5-4 going into the bottom of the seventh.

The Phillies have been a decent offensive squad, listing at No. 12 in the MLB with a batting average of .241. They are facing a Colorado pitching staff that is No. 16 with a team ERA of 4.21. Right-handed pitcher Vince Velasquez will make the start in place of left-handed pitcher Matt Moore, who is sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols. Velasquez has not started a game this season, being used as a long reliever. He gave up four runs in 1.1 innings in his first appearance, but he has bounced back with a pair of scoreless outings.

Rockies starting to play well

Colorado got off to a 3-4 start this season before losing its next seven games. The Rockies are starting to play much better, winning three of their last four contests. They swept a two-game set with Houston earlier this week, including a 6-3 victory in Wednesday’s finale. The Astros have now lost nine of their last 10 games. Colorado scored two runs in the bottom of the first and second before adding two more in the sixth. The Rockies are No. 16 in the MLB in team batting average, hitting at a .229 clip.

Second baseman Ryan McMahon leads the team with .275 batting average. He has scored 12 runs and has hit a team-high six home runs. Shortstop Trevor Story is second with 18 hits at a .273 clip. They are going to face a Philadelphia pitching staff that has a team ERA of 4.17, which is good for No. 15 in the MLB. Right-handed pitcher German Marquez will take the mound for Colorado on Friday night. He held the Mets to two runs and two hits in a seven-inning complete game as part of a doubleheader in his last start. Marquez has not allowed more than three runs in any of his starts.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This line is giving way too much credit to Colorado. Velasquez had one really rough outing to open the season, which tanked his ERA. He has thrown back-to-back shutout outings out of the bullpen. This is a different setting because he is making a spot start, but he has plenty of experience as a starter. He has a lot to gain from a quality start. Colorado has won a few games finally, but both of those victories came against the slumping Astros. Philadelphia has more firepower in its lineup, so this line doesn’t make much sense.

Prediction: Philadelphia +120

Full-Game Total Pick

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Colorado has been going under the total all season. Coors Field is known for high-scoring games, but that has only provided value on the under so far this year. The Rockies have gone under at a 4-0-1 clip in their last five home games against a right-handed starter. If my assessment of Velasquez and the betting market’s response is correct, the value on Philadelphia’s spread also applies to the under. He has gone under in four of his last five starts after the Phillies gave up five runs in their previous game.

Prediction: Under 10.5
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Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.