Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#909 San Diego Padres 10.5 vs.
#910 Colorado Rockies -120
Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul



#909 San Diego
#910 Colorado


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The San Diego Padres will continue their weekend series on the road at Coors Field on Saturday as they get set for Game 2 against the NL West-rival Colorado Rockies.

The Padres enter the weekend slotted in third place in the NL West standings with a 21-17 overall record and they currently sit three games behind the division-leading L.A. Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Rockies are trying to erase a slow start to the season and they enter with a 17-20 record after winning just four of their last 10 games. Can Colorado get back on the winning track at home against an improving Padres’ team on Saturday?

Lucchesi struggling to regain 2018 form

Second-year left-hander Joey Lucchesi is scheduled to toe the rubber at Coors Field on Saturday for his eighth start of the season. Following a promising rookie year in which he posted an 8-9 record to go along with a respectable 4.08 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 130 innings of work, Lucchessi has struggled to regain the form that he showcased last season. The 25-year-old has allowed three runs or more in four of his last five starts and he’s walked at least two batters in five of his seven outings. Last time out, Lucchesi gave up three runs on five hits in five innings of work in a no-decision at home versus the L.A. Dodgers. He’s been a victim of a .333 BABIP early on and has stranded only 66.8 percent of his baserunners so far this season, but the Padres want the young lefty to continue to attack the zone earlier in counts. The Padres’ lefty enters with a 3-2 record to go along with a 5.00 ERA through seven starts this year.

Lucchesi has faced the Rockies once already this season, taking the loss after surrendering five earned runs on seven hits in seven innings of work. He went 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts versus the Rockies last season and owns a 1.50 ERA in two career starts on the road at Coors Field.

According to Baseball Savant, the current Rockies’ roster is batting .261 in 75 plate appearances versus the Padres’ lefty. StatCast data projects Colorado for an expected batting average of .230 and an expected slugging percentage of .389 heading into Saturday’s matchup.

Gray gets the call after last start postponed

Colorado is scheduled to counter with right-hander John Gray, who had his last start postponed due to inclement weather. The Rockies elected to skip Gray’s last turn in the rotation as a result, but he comes in riding a personal three-game win streak despite coming off two of his poorest outings of the season. Gray has surrendered 10 earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 10 ⅓ frames, but Colorado still emerged with road victories over the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers in those matchups. The 27-year-old hurler comes in with a 3-3 overall record to go along with a 4.22 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) so far this season.

Gray has already made one start against San Diego this season, limiting them to just one run on three hits in seven innings of work in an 8-2 Rockies’ victory on April 16. Last season, Gray was 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in five starts versus the division-rival Padres and he is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 13 starts against them dating back to the 2016 season.

According to Baseball Savant, the current Padres’ roster is batting .261 in 121 plate appearances versus the Rockies’ right-hander. StatCast data projects the Padres for an expected batting average of .276 and an expected slugging percentage of .453 off of Gray heading into Saturday’s matchup.

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Lucchesi has pitched well against the Rockies during his short career, but it hasn’t translated into wins for the Padres. The Padres have struggled in this series as of late, losing each of the last four meetings and they are just 1-4 in Lucchesi’s last five starts against Colorado. San Diego is also 1-4 in their last five trips to Coors Field, so I’ll take my chances with the Rockies at home in this NL West showdown on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams have stayed under the projected total in eight of their last 10 meetings and each of their last five at Coors Field in Colorado.  The Rockies have gone under the projected total in 16 of their last 23 meetings versus a left-handed starter and the under is 41-19-3 in the Rockies’ last 63 games during Game 2 of a series. On the other hand, San Diego has stayed under the projected total in four of their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take this matchup to go under the projected total on Saturday night.

Prediction: Under

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.