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#965 Baltimore Orioles 9 vs.
#966 New York Yankees -220
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:35pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

When and Where: Tuesday, May 14, Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y., 6:35 p.m. EDT.

J.A. Happ hopes facing the Baltimore Orioles for the third time this season is the charm as he goes for his first win in 2019 versus the AL East rivals Tuesday night when the New York Yankees start their rain-adjusted three-game series in the Bronx.

Cashner coming off unrewarded solid outing for O’s

Andrew Cashner (4-1, 4.25 ERA) and John Means have combined for nine of Baltimore’s 14 wins heading into the series opener, and Cashner is making his third bid for a fifth win that would surpass his 2018 total.

The right-hander made only one mistake versus the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday — a solo homer by Mookie Betts — but it was enough to prevent him from a decision as Boston outlasted Baltimore 2-1 in 12 innings. Cashner is unbeaten in his last four starts, posting a 3.27 ERA over 22 innings in that span.

Cashner’s ability to work in and out of trouble — opposing hitters are batting .241 against him with runners in scoring position — is keeping the Orioles in most games, but also occasionally hindering his chances of pitching deep in games. He likely has the longest leash among Brandon Hyde’s starters, but it continues to be a game-by-game basis for the first-year manager.

“A lot depends on — for me, it’s traffic on the bases, stressful innings,” Hyde told the Baltimore Sun. “Like Cash’s last start in Chicago, where it was right around 100 and it was only through four, but that fourth inning was 30 something pitches, and he was pitching out of traffic the entire inning, so that definitely factors into it.

“If they’re breezing through the game and there’s a lot of low stress innings, especially later on, I’d look to extend guys a little bit, but I’m not gonna overextend a guy that is continuing to pitch stressful inning after stressful inning.”

Cashner did not have many stressful innings in his season debut versus the Yankees on March 28 because Hyde lifted him after four-plus in Baltimore’s 7-2 loss. Cashner was tagged for six runs and six hits with four walks while throwing only 42 of his 75 pitches for strikes.

The righty is 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA in eight career starts versus New York but has lost his last three decisions in a four-start span, giving up 18 runs and 29 hits in 23 1-3 innings for a 6.56 ERA. Gleyber Torres is 4 for 7 with a double versus Cashner, and DJ LeMahieu is 6 for 19 with a two-bagger.

Happ looks to win back-to-back starts for the first time in 2019

A 17-game winner last year splitting time between Toronto and New York, Happ (2-3, 4.36) has shown only flashes of the form that saw him go 7-0 after being acquired by the Yankees.

The left-hander has bracketed a poor outing with two solid ones, throwing 12 shutout innings and picking up two victories around a loss to the Minnesota Twins. Happ powered through five innings versus the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, yielding one hit and two walks while striking out seven in New York’s 3-1 win.

“I think I just held some frustration from that last start,” Happ told the New York Post. “Pitching with an edge or whatever you want to call it, I was definitely focused out there. I do think that helped a little bit.”

That focus was not evident in his two starts versus Baltimore to open 2019. The southpaw lost the first and had a no-decision in the second, yielding six runs and 10 hits — three of them home runs — in 8 1-3 innings. Happ is 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA in four starts against the Orioles since joining the Yankees and 7-7 with a 3.21 ERA in 21 overall.

Renato Nunez has given Happ fits, going 6 for 13 with a pair of homers and a double. Trey Mancini and Chris Davis have also taken him deep twice, with Mancini hitting homers in both games this year while going 7 for 23.

Davis, though, is 4 for 27 with 12 strikeouts.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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A confidence pick in Happ to finally deliver back-to-back strong outings and overcome his home woes. The lefty is 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA in five starts in the Bronx this year, but Baltimore’s struggles versus left-handers gives him a prime chance to win consecutive starts. Additionally, Cashner’s worst road start of the season came in his season debut in the Bronx.

Prediction: Yankees -1.5 runs (-120)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The over is trending with both starters in this contest, going 5-1 in Cashner’s last six and 8-3 in Happ’s last 11. While there is confidence in Happ getting back-to-back wins, it would not be surprising to see both pitchers have to grind their way through five or perhaps six innings.

The over has also delivered in Happ’s last four starts versus the Orioles and has posted an impressive 23-5 record in the last 28 games between the teams in New York.

Prediction: OVER 8.5 runs (-120)

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The teams have cleared 26.5 in all six meetings this year, reaching 30 or more on five occasions. Cashner’s start in the Bronx was the only sub-30 game of the bunch (27), while Happ’s two starts both finished at 31.

The Orioles have also been feast or famine pitching wise in the last 10 games, giving up seven or more runs in five of them and two or fewer in the other five. The hedge is this game skews to the former.

Prediction: OVER 26.5 runs+hits+errors (-130)

First Five Innings Side Pick

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This is a confidence pick in Happ, who has held teams without a run in the first five innings in two of his last three starts. The lefty split the five-inning outcomes of his two previous starts versus Baltimore this year, while Cashner and the Orioles trailed 6-1 after five in his lone outing against New York.

Prediction: Yankees -0.5 runs (-145)

First Five Innings Total Bet

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In all three starts the pitchers have made against the opposing teams, the five-inning over has cleared. It cleared comfortably in the Bronx on both occasions, and the five-inning over has posted a 4-2 record in the head-to-head matchups between the teams.

The five-inning over also has a 6-3-2 record in Baltimore’s last 11 games.

Prediction: OVER 5 runs (-105)

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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There are two directions one could go, the other being the Yankees to score first at -120. Both pitchers have allowed first-inning runs on all three occasions against the opponent, though Happ has not allowed a first-inning run in his last four starts.

Both teams are averaging .58 runs or better in the first inning on the season, and someone has scored in the opening frame in four of the six meetings.

Prediction: YES to 1st-inning run (-110)

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.