Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#5905 Milwaukee Brewers vs.
#5906 Miami Marlins
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 6:10pm EDT
Written by Eric P.

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The Miami Marlins play host to the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday evening in the second game of the weekend series from LoanDepot Park. After Friday night's series opener, this could be a quick turnaround for both teams but with the Marlins trending down and the Brewers trending up, it remains to be seen how this one might go. This is only the second game between the two teams this season, after facing off against each other six times in 2021. The Brewers won four of six last season and even though they'll be on the road in this one, will like their chances to pick upo where they left off.

Brewers Look To Stay Atop Division

The Brewers didn't waste any time taking hold of the NL Central after the first month of action. They came into the weekend with a healthy 2.5-game lead over the Cardinals and if they don't end up winning the division, they'll be heavy favorites to find themselves in the Wild Card game. Road trips in Miami are crucial for this group though, as while it should be a challenge, it's also a set of games that the Brewers know that they need to take advantage of if they want to be seen as a true contender in the National League. With a winning record away from home as well, they aren't strangers to playing well away from home, which should bode well for Saturday.

The Brewers have found success mainly because they've been able to stay healthy. Andrew McCutchen (illness) remains the only key position player out, while the bullpen is in a more difficult situation. Three relievers have already been ruled out for the weekend, while Trevor Gott (quadriceps) is questionable.

The Brewers will have some additional confidence as they hand the ball off to Eric Lauer in game two. The lefty has been electric this season, as he sports a 3-0 record and 1.82 ERA heading into the weekend. Having failed to allow more than a single run in any of his last four starts, there haven't been many pitchers who have been efficient of late. With some experience already against the Marlins, he'll have some confidence that he'll carry into Saturday night.

Offensively, the Brewers have taken a massive step forward after struggling to get the runs going in 2021. Despite ranking 14th in batting average, they rank second in runs per nine innings, partly due to their OPS (4th) and home run (2nd) numbers). Adding in limiting their strikeouts and this offense has been difficult to figure out this season. Christian Yelich's resurgence has been instrumental, while the addition of Hunter Renfroe (8 HRs) and the consistency of Rowdy Tellez (27 RBI), both serve to serve out the balance in the lineup.

Marlins Leaning On Home Advantage

The Marlins shocked many during 2020, finding their way into the postseason and grabbing a win in the opening round. Unfortunately, they have mainly struggled since then though, as they were unable to get over the hump last season and have limped out of the gates somewhat this season. Hovering just under .500, the Marlins are in fourth place in the NL East and quickly seem to be fading back out of the discussion. They are only 2-8 in their last ten games and with a losing record at home, it could be a tough weekend as they welcome the first-place Brewers to town.

Injuries continue to be a concern for the Marlins as well through the first month. Joey Wendle (hamstring) and Jon Berti (undisclosed) both remain out, while Miguel Rojas (illness0 is questionable for the weekend. Adding in a reliever and two starters out, and their injury list has hit a few more spots than Milwaukee's has.

The Marlins will lean on Trevor Rogers to grab the win on Saturday, as the righty looks to regain his form from last season. It has been a rough start for him, sporting a 1-4 record and 5.00 ERA, especially after turning quite a few heads as a youngster in the rotation last season. Inconsistency has been the issue so far, as he has struggled to string together consecutive strong outings. The last time out, he pitched five scoreless innings against the Padres but allowed five runs in the previous start. If Miami can get the 2021 version of Rogers on Saturday, the Brewers could certainly be in for a long night.

The offense has been far from elite but also hasn't been weak by any means. Coming in right in the middle of baseball in nearly every offensive category, the Marlins have the players to remain dangerous but definitely could struggle against Lauer. Their high strikeout rate is what has held them back so far, even despite their ability to get on base. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (.295 average, 6 HRs, 24 RBI) has led the way, with Garrett Cooper (.362 OBP) and Jose Aguilar (28 hits) providing support. This offense goes as Chisholm Jr. goes, so if he can get off to a quick start, it'll bode well for the night.

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The Brewers will come away with the win on Saturday in the battle with the Marlins and even though they'll be on the road, their balance will make the difference. It'll all start with Lauer on the mound, who has been elite this season and won't have any issues keeping the Marlins at bay. Adding in that Milwaukee's offense has been one of the best this season, they'll have the luxury of catching Miami and their pitcher, Rogers, as he continues to try to find his form this season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Marlins are 0-4 in their last four home games and the Brewers are 6-1 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins in Miami and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the two teams overall.

Prediction: Brewers

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The Brewers have Lauer on the mound and considering how elite he has been this season, the Marlins are likely to have difficulty getting much of anything going on the offensive end. Adding in Lauer's depth to his starts will only add more speculation about Miami's struggles, considering Milwaukee's bullpen is likely to barely be used. For Rogers, he has struggled this season but always has the ability to revert back to his 2021 success and make life tough for Milwaukee, especially as they close out the weekend on the road. Additionally, according to covers.com, for the Brewers, the under is 6-0 in their last six road games against a left-handed starter, while for Miami, the under is 3-0-1 in their last four starts against a team with a winning record.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Eric Ploch , "Eric P."

Eric grew up surrounded by sports, whether it was spending the weekend catching games in person or on tv, or heading out to the fields to play whatever sport was in season. What started as a hobby, soon became a passion, as he became the sports editor of his high school newspaper, then wrote for his university newspaper during his undergrad years. After obtaining a degree in Sports Operations and Promotions, and spending 8 years deeply immersed in the sports world, Eric decided to take his love for analytics and predictions, and his experience, to online sports fans everywhere. James is now an integral part of our team here at StatSalt and has also been a very successful sports bettor over the years. Be sure and follow him daily.