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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets,
5-16-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#923 Toronto
Blue Jays -130
#924 New York
Mets 8

Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 1:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Toronto Blue Jays
J. HAPP

21 - 21

4
W's
3
L's
4.8
ERA
1.27
WHIP

New York Mets
Z. WHEELER

20 - 18

2
W's
2
L's
5.03
ERA
1.44
WHIP

Betting Trends

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The Blue Jays are in New York on Wednesday night, playing the Mets in the second game of a brief two games series.   Toronto has struggled of late, losing seven of 10 and three of their last four, including 5-2 to Boston on Saturday and then 5-3 to the Red Sox on Sunday.   They have dropped well below the Red Sox and the Yankees, and they now find themselves 7.5 games out of first place and I’m not sure I see them competing this year.

The Mets have also fallen back in the standings and their drop has been even worse than the Blue Jays.  They started off like a ball of fire and led the NL East for the first month of the season, but they are now all the way back in fourth place after losing eight of 10.  They sit at 21-20 and it’s amazing they have dropped this quick this fast.

Happ goes for Toronto

J.A. Happ is on the mound for the Blue Jays on Wednesday and he’ll be looking to win his fifth game of the year against only three losses.  He’s been up and down and I’m not sure he’ll ever be the pitcher he was two years ago that almost won the Cy Young, but he’s still been solid, despite his ERA not being all that great.  It’s currently 4.80 and that’s mostly due to getting shelled in his latest start.

He gave up 10 hits and seven earned runs over only 3.1 innings and took the loss in a 9-3 loss to the Mariners.  He’s now lost his last two starts, while giving up 10 earned runs over only nine innings.  He still has great stuff, however, and has struck out 56 batters this season over 43 innings and he’s only walked 13 batters.

Wheeler goes for Mets

Zack Wheeler goes for the Mets and he’ll be looking to go above .500 as he currently sits at 2-2 on the year.  He has been up and down, throwing many solid starts, but then he throws in a clunker like he did two starts back, giving up eight earned runs which inflated his ERA, which now sits at 5.03.  Still, he’s allowed two earned runs or less in three of six starts, and three runs or less in four of six.

Batters are hitting .263 against him and his WHIP is 1.44, which tells me that he has good stuff, but he’s still allowing too many baserunners.  He has 31 K’s to 14 BB’s which isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either.  He doesn’t go too deep into games, with seven innings being his longest start thus far this year, but five of six have gone at least five innings.

MLB Trends:

The Toronto Blue Jays are:

  • 5-1 in Happ’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • 4-1 in Happ’s last 5 road starts.

The New York Mets are:

  • 2-9 in their last 11 games on grass.
  • 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
  • 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Mets are a bet against every time out now, and I’ll gladly take J.A. Happ on the road and bet the Blue Jays. He’ll bounce back from his last poor outing.

Pick: Toronto

Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.

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