Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 Milwaukee Brewers 8.5 vs.
#954 Philadelphia Phillies -125
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 1:05pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies will conclude a four-game series Thursday afternoon from Citizens Bank Park. The Brewers will hand the ball to 26-year old right-hander Zach Davies, and the Phillies will counter with 25-year old right-hander Zach Eflin. The season series is tied one game apiece.

Davies Silences Cubs, Remains Undefeated

The Brewers will have Zach Davies on the mound for the eighth time of the season in this one. Davies resumed his stellar pitching last time out, firing 6.1 innings of one-run ball at Wrigley Field in a game the Brewers lost in extra innings. The four-year veteran right-hander has evolved into the ace of the Brewers rotation, recording a spectacular 1.54 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP accompanied with a 4-0 record in 46.2 innings of work. Davies has squandered 10 runs (nine earned) to go with a 1-1 record in his 11.1 career inning pitched against the Phillies.

Jesus Aguilar is finally heating up at the plate after a very slow opening month. The 28-year-old slugger has driven in five runs in his last seven games, and he is hitting a stellar .323 on the month. Aguilar did big damage against the Phillies last year, filing a .310 average with three homers and 10 RBI’s in 22 at bats.

The Brewers are scoring an average of 4.75 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Major Leagues. The Milwaukee pitching staff holds a 4.27 team ERA, positioning them in the middle at 14th overall. The Brewers stand at 9-11 on the road entering Wednesday’s play.

Eflin Notches Second Complete Game of Season

Zach Eflin will get the nod for the ninth time of the season, aiming for his third consecutive victory. Eflin came through with a masterpiece in his previous performance, recording the complete game shutout against the Royals, leading to a win to lift his record to 5-3. The fourth-year right-hander leads the Phillies rotation in most major categories, logging a stifling 2.47 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP paired with a 5-3 record in 51 innings of work. Eflin has fared well against the Brewers in two two career meetings, holding them to only three runs and he came away with the victory in both starts. Travis Shaw is 1 for 5 against Eflin, while Christian Yelich is 0 for 5, and Jesus Aguilar is 0 for 3.

Maikel Franco is one of the few Phillies’ to have any success against Brewers’ starter Zach Davies, going 4 for 6 with one homer and four RBI’s. The 26-year old third baseman is only hitting .222 on the month, although he has driven in six runs. Franco is currently hitting .243 with seven home runs and 28 RBI’s on the season.

The Phillies currently rank 10th in the Major Leagues with an average of 5.12 runs per game. The Philadelphia pitching staff is looking good, carrying a 3.84 team ERA, placing them ninth in the Majors. The Phillies feature a 15-8 home record on the season entering Wednesday’s action.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am siding with the Brewers in this matchup. This is a great matchup between two strong starters in Zach Davies and Zach Eflin. Davies owns the better numbers as he leads all of baseball with a dazzling 1.54 ERA and Davies also has a lower FIP than Eflin.

Furthermore, Zach Davies has silenced several dangerous lineups this season. He held the Cubs to one run, and he also held the Dodgers and Rockies to zero earned runs all within his last five starts, so I am confident he can shut down a dangerous Phillies lineup. Lastly, the Brewers have won eight out of their last 11 games overall entering Wednesday.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

This contest has all the ingredients for a pitchers’ duel. Both starters are red-hot on the mound, and the under has been a common theme in their outings. The under has converted in each of Davies’ eight starts on the season, and the under is 4-0-1 in Eflin’s last five starts overall, and 4-0 in his last four home starts.

In addition, both teams feature a reliable bullpen. The Philadelphia bullpen has been especially sharp this season, and they have moved up to eighth in the Majors with a 3.71 ERA entering Wednesday’s action. The Brewers bullpen is in the top half of the Majors with a 4.11 ERA.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

I am confident the Brewers can break through at the plate against Zach Eflin. Left-handed hitters are hitting .276 paired with a .782 OPS against Eflin this season, and Milwaukee’s lineup is stacked with left-handed hitters including Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw. The Brewers now stand fourth in the NL with a .782 OPS against lefties.

Prediction: Brewers Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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Rating:

I anticipate a scoreless first frame. Zach Eflin features a minuscule 1.12 ERA in his eight innings of work in the first inning this season. The same applies to Davies who has yet to allow a single run in his eight innings pitched in the opening inning.

Prediction: A Run in the First Inning No

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.