Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#963 Texas Rangers -110 vs.
#964 Kansas City Royals 9.5
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 1:15pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of sub-.500 teams from the American League close out a midweek set in the Midwest. The Texas Rangers are on the road as they conclude a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals Thursday afternoon. Kansas City jumped all over Texas early en route to an 11-5 win to open the series Tuesday night. The pitching matchup for the middle game of the series Wednesday night saw Mike Minor take the mound for the Rangers against the Royals’ Jorge Lopez. First pitch in that contest was set for 8:05 pm ET.

 

Texas Rangers Hope to Get Victory in Series Finale

Texas saw their losing streak extended to five as they were blasted in the opening game of the series Tuesday night. The Rangers entered Thursday fourth in the AL West but stood nine games behind the Astros in the division race. Texas was in a 9-0 hole after two innings and that told the tale in the contest. Logan Forsythe (run, two RBI) had three hits for the Rangers while Rougned Odor (two runs), Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo (two RBI) each had two hits in the contest. Shelby Miller (1-3) was rocked for eight runs on seven hits with two walks and a strikeout over 1.2 innings of work.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for his ninth start of the season for the Rangers in this contest. He comes in 4-3 with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, 17 walks and 44 strikeouts over 47.2 innings of work. Lynn took the loss in his last start, which came Friday on the road against Houston. He threw seven innings, allowing three runs on six hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in a 3-0 Texas defeat. Lynn is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, nine walks and 20 strikeouts over 20 innings in his last three starts. He is 2-2 with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.661 WHIP, 20 walks and 30 strikeouts over 40.1 innings in seven career starts against the Royals. Lynn is 1-2 with a 6.45 ERA, a 1.746 WHIP, 11 walks and 17 strikeouts over 22.1 innings in four career starts at Kauffman Stadium.

Kansas City Royals Seek Series Victory

Kansas City had dropped three of four before pounding the Rangers into oblivion in the opening game of the set. The Royals entered Wednesday in the basement of the AL Central, 11.5 games behind the Twins. Kansas City had a 9-0 lead after two innings and racked up seven doubles among their 14 hits in the contest. Whit Merrifield (three runs, RBI) and Jorge Soler (run, two RBI) each had three hits in the contest for the Royals. The offensive barrage made things easy for Danny Duffy (2-1) to pick up the win: he allowed four runs on seven hits with one walk and six strikeouts over five innings.

Homer Bailey is on the mound for his ninth start of the season for the Royals in this contest. He is 4-3 with a 4.83 ERA, a 1.317 WHIP, 16 walks and 38 strikeouts over 41 innings of action this year. Bailey picked up the win in his last start, which came Friday at home against the Phillies. He threw five innings, allowing a run on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts in a 5-1 Kansas City victory. Bailey is 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, five walks and 11 strikeouts over 17 innings of action in his last three starts. In his 221st major league start, he pitches against the Rangers for the first time in his career. Bailey is 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA, a 1.214 WHIP, nine walks and 28 strikeouts over 28 innings in five career starts at Kauffman Stadium.

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The Royals battered Shelby Miller in the opening game of the set to cruise to an easy victory. Things might be a little tougher here as Lynn is a crafty veteran that has the ability to work the strike zone and take down inexperienced or impatient hitters. Bailey has been a nice bounceback story after struggling last season with the Reds, when he was 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 20 starts. This is his best season ERA mark since 2014 when he posted a 3.71 mark. He’s been a bit unlucky as he has a 3.69 FIP ERA on the season but the Royals have struggled offensively. Look for the Rangers to do enough at the plate to come up with the win.

Prediction: Texas Rangers -105

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Bailey has suffered from some bad luck but it’s tough to put a ton of confidence in a guy that has turned in four straight years with an ERA north of five and three straight with an ERA above six. While Lynn hasn’t been great this season, he comes in off a quality start in his last outing. He gave up three solo homers but he wasn’t afforded any run support in that contest. He hasn’t had much success pitching against the Royals in his career but Bailey gets his first crack at the Rangers here. Which pitcher gets the upper hand in the series finale here?

The over is 5-0 in the Rangers’ last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central foes and 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Kansas City has seen the over go 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 8-1-2 in their last 11 vs. American League West teams and 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The offenses have solid outings in this one and it ends up over the number.

Prediction: Over 10

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.