Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#907 Atlanta Braves vs.
#908 Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 7:40pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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A pair of National League teams open up an early week set on the diamond in search of a victory in Cream City. The Atlanta Braves are on the road as they kick off a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers Monday night. Atlanta closed a three-ame series with the Padres at home looking to claim the rubber game of the set Sunday. The Braves picked ugp a 6-5 victory in the middle game of the series Saturday afternoon. Milwaukee played the rubber game of their three-game set with the Marlins on the road Sunday looking to pick up a series win. The Brewers were dumped 9-3 in the middle game of the series Saturday night. In the first series between the teams this season, the Brewers took two of three on the road May 6-8. This article was published prior to the conclusion of both teams’ contests Sunday.

Atlanta Braves Trying to Climb Toward .500

Atlanta won the World Series last season but they have struggled through the first month-plus of this season as perhaps the championship hangover has held them in check. The Braves entered Sunday 16-18 on the season and stood third in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the Mets for the top spot. In Saturday’s contest, Austin Riley (RBI) had three hits while Travis Demeritte and Ozzie Albies (run, two RBI) each had two. Matt Olson (his fourth) and Marcell Ozuna (his fifth) homered in the victory as the Braves scored four times in the eighth to erase a 5-2 deficit. Charlie Morton didn’t factor in the decision as he threw six innings, allowing one run on two hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. Kenley Jansen (2-0) earned the win in relief as he threw 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing no hits or walks while striking out two.

Ian Anderson gets the call for the Braves as he makes his seventh start of the season in this contest. He comes in 3-1 with a 4.20 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, 16 walks and 22 strikeouts over 30 innings of work this season. Anderson didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Wednesday at home against the Red Sox. He threw 5.1 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with one walk and four strikeouts in a game the Braves went on to win in walk-off fashion, 5-3. In his last three starts, Anderson is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, seven walks and 10 strikeouts over 16.2 innings of work. Anderson won his lone career start against the Brewers, which came on the road on May 15, 2021. He threw six innings, allowing one run on two hits with four walks and four strikeouts in a 5-1 Atlanta victory. That outing came at American Family Field, giving him at least a passing familiarity with the ballpark.

Milwaukee Brewers Looking to Maintain NL Central Advantage

Milwaukee was roughed up in the middle game of their three-game set on the road with the Marlins Saturday night. The Brewers still entered Sunday leading the NL Central by 2.5 games over the Cardinals despite losing five of their previous seven contests. Against Miami Saturday, Hunter Renfroe (run, two RBI) was the lone player with two hits for Milwaukee as the team had eight hits spread among seven different players in the contest. Renfroe (his ninth) and Willy Adames (his ninth) each went deep in the contest though it wasn’t enough to deliver a victory. Eric Lauer (3-1) took the loss on the mound as he gave up four runs on six hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over five innings. Three of the six hits he allowed were homers, with each of them coming in the fourth inning.

Freddy Peralta is on the hill for his seventh start of the season for the Brewers in this contest. He comes in 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.256 WHIP, 11 walks and 38 strikeouts over 28.2 innings of action this season. Peralta earned the win in his last start, which came on the road against the Reds Tuesday night. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in a 5-4 Brewers victory. In his last three starts, Peralta is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, three walks and 22 strikeouts over 16.2 innings of work. Peralta makes his fifth career appearance and fourth start against the Braves in this contest. He comes in 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA, a 1.531 WHIP, 12 walks and 19 strikeouts over 16.1 innings of work against them. Peralta is 16-7 with one save, a 3.39 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, 75 walks and 244 strikeouts over 186 innings of work in 53 career appearances, 26 starts, at American Family Field.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Atlanta has been up and down this season, which has put them a fair distance behind the Mets in the NL East race. The Braves have to get back to playing quality baseball as we’re nearing the quarter pole of the season already. Anderson hasn’t been overwhelmingly great and is averaging only five innings of work per start through his first six turns in the rotation. Atlanta is only 6-8 on the road having played 14 road games against 21 home games on the season. Peralta has pitched well in his last few starts after a rough start to the year. Milwaukee is much better at home (10-4) than on the road (11-9 entering Sunday) and Peralta pitches well at American Family Field. The Brewers have been a bit more consistent than the Braves at this point of the year so back the hosts as they take the opener here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -135

Full-Game Total Pick

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Atlanta entered Sunday having seen the over post a 19-13-2 mark in their 34 games on the year. The Braves are tied for 13th in the majors in runs per game with 4.21 per contest and that number drops to 3.43 runs per game on the road this season. Atlanta’s average total on the year is 8.71 runs per contest, a number that drops to 7.43 runs per contest based on their struggles at the plate as the road team. Milwaukee entered Sunday with the under posting a 14-15-5 mark in their 34 games this season. The Brewers are 7th in runs per game this season with 4.82, a number that rockets up to an even six runs per game at home this season. Milwaukee’s average total is 8.94 runs per game this season and that edges up to 9.07 runs per game at home. We saw the over hit in two of the three meetings in the first series this season and with Milwaukee hitting well at home, lean toward this one winding up over the number.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.