Two teams heading in opposite directions will meet on Sunday when the Milwaukee Brewers (25-14) host the Washington Nationals (13-27) in the final game of a three-game series. Milwaukee took the opener 7-0 on Friday. Saturday's game was not complete at the time of this preview, so team stats for that game are not included in this prediction.
Losses piling for NationalsThe Nationals are last in the NL East, already 13 games out of first place. On the road, Washington is 8-12, but due to usually being a sizable underdog, they have still turned a +$75 profit in road games for the season, according to covers.com. Overall, Washington is still the worst run line team in baseball with a 15-25 record (-$1238). Washington has lost four of their last five games and has been outscored 32-8 over the span.
Starting for the Nationals on Sunday will be Aaron Sanchez, who is 2-3, with a 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in five starts. He has struck out 12 batters and walked six in 22 2/3 innings. Washington is 28th with a 4.99 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a staff.
The Nationals are fifth in MLB with a .248 batting average but 21st, averaging just under four runs per game, and 28th with 26 home runs. Josh Bell leads the team with a .401 on-base percentage, a .309 batting average, and 22 RBI. Juan Soto has a team-best eight home runs and is second with a .390 on-base percentage, but only has 11 RBI in 40 games.
Brewers leading NL CentralThe Milwaukee Brewers are first in the NL Central, leading the second-place Cardinals by four games. At home, Milwaukee is 13-5 and the fifth-best money team at home +$219 according to covers.com. As impressive as Milwaukee's overall record is this season, they are just 17-22 (-$593) on the run line. The Brewers have won four of their last five games following Friday's victory, outscoring their opponents 22-12 over that stretch.
The Milwaukee pitching staff is seventh in MLB with a 3.40 ERA and second with 17 quality starts. Freddy Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in seven starts and is listed to start on Sunday. In 35 2/3 innings, Peralta has struck out 48 batters and walked 12.
The Milwaukee offense is sixth in MLB averaging 4.8 runs per game and fourth with 52 team home runs. Hunter Renfroe, Rowdy Tellez, and Willy Adames have each hit nine home runs this season, and Tellez leads the team with 32 RBI.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
This one should get ugly. The Brewers have won the last four games started by Freddy Peralta, and he has a 1.52 ERA with 32 strikeouts over that stretch. The Brewers have also scored at least six runs in seven of their last 10 home games and should feast against Aaron Sanchez, who has an 8.78 ERA in his last three starts, with two of those games resulting in a loss of at least two runs for Washington. I mentioned earlier that Washington is the worst runline team in baseball. Don't overthink this one. Take Milwaukee.
Full-Game Total Pick
Aaron Sanchez has a 9.00 ERA in three road games this season and will be backed by a Nationals bullpen that is 27th in MLB with a 4.31 ERA. Expect a lot of runs from a Brewers team that is fourth in MLB averaging 5.5 runs per game at home. The Nationals will also contribute to the total, as they are the third-best road scoring team in MLB averaging 5.1 runs per game. Although Peralta has been pitching well lately, Milwaukee has still allowed at least four runs in five of his seven starts this season. He has also been more hittable in his home ballpark, where he has a 5.40 ERA in three starts. Take the over.