Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#909 New York Yankees -190 vs.
#910 Baltimore Orioles 9.5
Thursday, May 23, 2019 at 12:35pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The New York Yankees will take on the Baltimore Orioles as they conclude their four-game American League East showdown at Camden Yards on Thursday afternoon

Yankees shortstop has been single-handedly destroying the Orioles this season. The shortstop hit two more home runs versus Baltimore on Wednesday, bringing his season total to 10 against the O’s. Torres is batting nearly .500 in 42 at-bats with 13 RBIs versus the division-rival O’s this season. Can the Yankees complete a four-game sweep in Camden Yards on Thursday night?

Torres continues offensive onslaught vs. Orioles

Despite battling numerous early-season injuries, New York has managed to stay hot in the American League East. Torres has been a major part of the Yankees’ ability to eclipse the Tampa Bay Rays for the top spot in the division race. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton has been shut down from his rehab and is expected to be re-evaluated in 7-10 days, while fellow outfielder Aaron Judge remains without a timetable for his return. New York owns a 1.5-game lead over the Rays in the AL East race.

The Yankees are scheduled to close the series with veteran right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who will take the mound in hopes of extending his current quality starts streak to four games. Tanaka has lowered his ERA by nearly a full run over his last three outings — all quality starts — and he is 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA during that span. He fresh off of tossing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball in his last start versus the division-rival Rays. The Yankees’ right-hander comes in with a 3-3 overall record to go along with a 3.09 ERA in 10 starts this season.

Tanaka opened the year with 5 ⅔ innings of two-run (one earned) ball in a 7-2 victory over Baltimore. He went 3-2 with a 4.15 ERA over his previous eight outings against the Orioles dating back to 2016. According to Baseball Savant, the current O’s roster is batting .282 in 83 plate appearances off of the Yankees’ right-hander.

Bundy showing signs of life for Orioles

Baltimore is scheduled to counter with 26-year-old Dylan Bundy for his 10th start of the season. After a couple of down years, Bundy appears to be regaining confidence on the mound for the Orioles. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his nine outings this season, while pitching into the sixth inning or later in three of his last five starts. He enters with a 4.66 ERA and a 2-5 overall record, but there are some signs that point to some regression for the O’s right-hander. Bundy has benefited from a .244 BABIP and his FIP (5.63)  is nearly a full-run higher than his current ERA.

Bundy has made two starts against the Yankees this season, but was chased before completing four innings on both occasions. He has allowed six runs on eight hits in just 7 ⅓ combined frames versus the Bronx Bombers this season, which amounts to a 7.36 ERA. Dating back to 2016, Bundy is 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA in nine appearances (seven starts) against the Yankees.

According to Baseball Savant, the current New York roster is batting .263 in 111 plate appearances off of the Orioles’ right-hander.

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New York has dominated this series, winning 20 of the last 27 meetings and 17 of the last 22 matchups at Camden Yards. They are on the brink of a sweep and up against a pitcher that they’ve knocked around in the past. Bundy has not lasted more than 3 ⅔ innings in two starts against New York this season and could be chased again here versus a hot Yankees’ lineup. That’s going to put a lot of stress on a poor Baltimore bullpen. Take New York to cover the run line and complete the sweep on the road in this AL East showdown on Thursday.

Prediction: New York Yankees -1.5

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The over is 39-11-1 in the last 51 meetings in this series and 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Baltimore. Bundy’s been hit hard by the Yankees in the past and Gelyber Torres continued to torch the O’s with the long ball on Wednesday night. The over is 4-0 in Tanaka’s last four road starts versus the Orioles and 4-1-1 in Bundy’s last six starts against New York. Take this game to go over the projected total at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Thursday.

Prediction: Over 9

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.