Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#979 Baltimore Orioles 11.5 vs.
#980 Colorado Rockies -155
Friday, May 24, 2019 at 8:40pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the start of an interleague weekend set between a couple of teams that are under the .500 mark on the year. The Baltimore Orioles are on the road as they play the first game of a three-game set with the Colorado Rockies Friday night. Baltimore closed a four-game series at home with the Yankees Thursday afternoon, losing 6-5. Colorado closed a three-game set on the road against the Pirates Thursday afternoon, missing a chance at a sweep as they fell 14-6. The Rockies took two of three in the last series between the teams, which took place in Baltimore July 25-27, 2016.

Baltimore Orioles Hope to Kick Off Road Trip on Positive Note

Baltimore showed some grit by rallying from a 5-1 deficit in the eighth to tie the game but lost by allowing a run in the ninth. The Orioles enter this one losers of six straight and 17.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Baltimore got a pair of hits from Renato Nunez, including his 10th homer of the season, a three-run shot that tied the game. Dylan Bundy didn’t factor in the decision as he allowed three runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts over 5.2 innings. Mychal Givens (0-2) took the loss as he allowed one run on one hit with three walks and two strikeouts in one inning of relief: all four baserunners reached with two outs.

John Means gets the call for the Orioles as he makes his 12th appearance and eighth start of the season in this contest. He comes in 5-4 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.099 WHIP, 13 walks and 34 strikeouts over 43.2 innings of work this season. Means took the loss in his last start, which came on the road against the Indians on Saturday. He threw five innings, allowing three runs on five hits with three walks and one strikeout in a game the Orioles dropped by a 4-1 score. Means is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, six walks and nine strikeouts over 18 innings in his three starts this season. He faces the Rockies for the first time in his major league career in this contest. In his 13th major league appearance and eighth start, Means pitches at Coors Field for the first time in his career.

Colorado Rockies Look to Get Bats Hot at Home

Colorado missed a chance at a sweep as they were clubbed for their fifth loss in seven games Thursday. The Rockies enter this one fourth in the NL West, nine games behind the Dodgers in the division. Colorado got two hits each from Trevor Story, David Dahl (run, RBI) and Nolan Arenado (run) in the loss. The Rockies gave up four homers, which of which came in the seventh inning off reliever Carlos Estevez. Antonio Senzatela (3-4) took the loss as he was tagged for eight runs on nine hits with three walks and two strikeouts over 3.1 innings of work.

Jeff Hoffman is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque to make his second start of the season for the Rockies here. He comes in 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, no walks and six strikeouts. Hoffman took the loss in his season debut, which came at home against the Nationals on April 23. He allowed four runs on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts in a 6-3 Rockies defeat. Hoffman is 3-3 with a 7.57 ERA, a 1.542 WHIP, 17 walks and 44 strikeouts over 35.2 innings in seven appearances, six starts, at Triple-A Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League this season. In his 39th career major league appearance and his 25th start, he pitches against the Orioles for the first time. Hoffman is 2-5 with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.709 WHIP, 39 walks and 61 strikeouts over 81.1 innings in 23 career appearances, 14 starts, at Coors Field.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Means has pitched well above his numbers would suggest as his FIP ERA is 4.48 at this point, nearly two runs worse than what he’s pitched to this season. The Orioles set a major league record for the fastest that a pitching staff has given up 100 homers in a season. With that in mind, Coors Field isn’t exactly the place that a staff like Baltimore’s needs to be if they hope to turn things around. After all, there have been 60 homers launched in 20 games at Coors this season, an average of three per contest. With Tyler Anderson on the shelf, Hoffman gets another chance to prove himself. Facing a Baltimore team that is a disaster is about as good a chance as one can ask for. Look for Colorado to come up with the win here.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies -157

Full-Game Total Pick

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Baltimore has been pounded into oblivion and their pitching doesn’t catch a break here. The Orioles are last in the majors in ERA (5.77) and home runs allowed (107) while ranking 28th in WHIP (1.477) on the year. Sadly, Baltimore could be worse as their FIP ERA as a team is 5.96, which is worst in the majors by nearly a full run. Coors Field has the highest batting average (.291), OPS (.855) and runs per game (12.83) in the majors this season. Will Means be able to turn in another successful outing or will the demons of Coors Field claim another soul in this contest?

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles’ last four on grass, 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0 in their last four overall, 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado has seen the over go 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 8-1 in their last nine at home. Expect a lot of fireworks at the plate, especially with Baltimore’s weak bullpen and Hoffman’s inconsistency: this one ends up over the total.

Prediction: Over 12

First Five Innings Side Pick

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While Means has pitched well so far this season and is arguably one of the top stories for a moribund Orioles franchise, the fact remains that he’s due to regress sooner rather than later. Given the way Baltimore has given up the long ball this season, this is a bad place to play. Means has allowed only six homers so far but four of those have come on the road, where he is 2-3 with a 3.98 ERA compared to a 3-1 mark with a 1.54 mark at home. The Rockies have the ability to hit their way to the lead after five innings of play.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies -160

First Five Innings Total Bet

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The Orioles give up a ton of runs and the Rockies have their own problems on the mound as Kyle Freeland has struggled while Tyler Anderson is on the shelf. Coors Field is a haven for offense, as it always is, and that works in the favor of the hitters while proving to be a problem for the pitching on both sides. The Rockies are putting up 5.95 runs per game at home this season while they allow 6.9 runs per game in those contests. With suspect pitching on the mound for the Rockies in Hoffman and Colorado’s bats, this one ends up over the total after five frames.

Prediction: Over 7 after five innings

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.