Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#907 Philadelphia Phillies 9 vs.
#908 Milwaukee Brewers -125
Saturday, May 25, 2019 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda



#907 Philadelphia
#908 Milwaukee


This article covers a past game!

View upcoming games.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

When and Where: Saturday, May 25, Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisc., 4:10 p.m. EDT.

A pair of struggling veteran pitchers looking to find a groove square off at Miller Park on Saturday when Jake Arrieta leads the Philadelphia Phillies into the middle game of their series versus Jhoulys Chacin and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Arrieta moves on after reunion in Chicago

Arrieta (4-4, 3.77 ERA) is looking to avoid a fifth consecutive winless start but could be turning a corner after a solid start against his former team. On Tuesday, the right-hander made his first start in Chicago since his Game 4 victory for the Cubs in the 2017 NLCS and was treated to a standing ovation from the Wrigley Field faithful.

Arrieta then went about his business, limiting the Cubs on one run through six innings as he worked in and out of trouble. He was in line for a victory, but the Phillies bullpen blew a two-run lead in their eventual 5-4, 10-inning victory. Still, Arrieta’s effort earned praise from his manager, Gabe Kapler.

“I thought he handled the emotions really well. I thought he was in control of the game even when we were down,” the skipper told the Phils’ official website. “He maintained his poise and got stronger as the outing went on.”

His previous start came at home against Milwaukee on May 15 and did not go as well as he was reached for five runs and five hits with four walks in six innings of a 5-2 defeat. It was Arrieta’s third straight losing start to the Brewers and dropped him to 8-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 18 starts against them.

Aside from a loss last year in which he was tagged for eight runs in 3 1-3 innings, Arrieta has fared well at Miller Park and is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in six starts there.

Lorenzo Cain has hit Arrieta well, going 6 for 12 with a double, and Ryan Braun has taken the righty deep three times while going 9 for 33. Hernan Perez is 7 for 19 with a homer, and reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich — who became the first in the majors to reach 20 homers in Friday night’s series opener — is 4 for 15 with a round-tripper.

Chacin tries again to shake out of funk for Brewers

Chacin’s spot in the rotation did not come up in the series in Philadelphia earlier this month, which may not have been a bad thing considering the right-hander is 1-5 with a 4.76 ERA in his last eight starts after winning the first two.

Chacin (3-5, 4.65) is not entirely at fault for his slump — the Brewers have failed to score more than two runs in any of those eight starts — and his overall run support average of 3.22 runs would rank ninth in the National League if he had enough innings to qualify.

Chacin is trying to avoid a third straight losing start after being reached for three runs and eight hits in five innings of a 12-8 defeat at Atlanta on Monday night. He has not given up more than three runs in any of his last four outings but has not lasted beyond six innings in any of them.

If there is good news for the righty, it is pitching at home. Chacin is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in four starts at Miller Park while holding opposing hitters to a .181 batting average.

Chacin beat the Phillies in his lone matchup against them last year, allowing four runs in 6 1-3 innings as the Brewers cruised to a 12-4 victory. Chacin has won three of his last four starts versus Philadelphia and is 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA in seven career starts.

Maikel Franco and Andrew McCutchen have homered off Chacin, but Bryce Harper is hitless in eight at-bats.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


This feels like a pick that is slightly against the grain, but the hedge is that both Chacin is due for a strong outing while getting the run support that has been lacking. He has been a better pitcher at home, and that will play a part in him snapping out of this recent slump.

Prediction: Brewers -120

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The under has trended with Chacin in large part due to the lack of run support, and Arrieta’s escapability factors into the under being the pick. It is also 12-3 in Chacin’s last 15 starts and 8-1 in his last nine versus above-.500 teams.

The under has also strongly trended with Arrieta, going 6-1 in his last seven starts against above-.500 teams and 5-1 in his last six road starts against such clubs.

Prediction: UNDER 9 runs

Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.