Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#6955 San Diego Padres vs.
#6956 Washington Nationals
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 4:05pm EDT
Written by Michael Briggs

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The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals will finish their three-game series on Thursday at 4:05 p.m. ET.

San Diego (22-26 SU and 23-25 RL) is starting left-hander Blake Snell tomorrow. The 30-year-old is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in nine outings.

Washington (20-28 SU and 30-18 RL) is starting right-hander Jake Irvin in the series finale. The 26-year-old is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four outings.

The Padres are -190 moneyline favorites and the game total is 9.5.

*Article published before the conclusion of Wednesday's game.

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Soto smashed in his return to Washington

The Padres earned a victory in Tuesday's series opener behind a strong start by Yu Darvish. San Diego's lineup also woke up, scoring seven runs on 12 hits, including four long balls. Can they generate more momentum on their nine-game road trip?

San Diego scores 3.94 runs per game (25th) and hits .225 (30th) with a .702 OPS (22nd). It's hit 54 home runs (17th) and stolen 29 bases (21st) this season. The SD pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA (11th) and a 1.25 WHIP (10th) with 20 quality starts.

The lefty Snell gets the nod for the Padres in game three. He's coming off his poorest showing of the season, a six-run losing effort in four innings vs. Boston. His previous six starts were more encouraging, though, as he lasted five or six innings in each appearance and held each opponent to three or fewer runs. Snell has a 48:27 K:BB ratio this season.

Is the season already lost in the nation's capital?

At 20-28 straight-up, Washington has been slightly better than expected this season. Coming off a series victory over Detroit, the Nats have an opportunity to build momentum against underachieving San Diego and afterthought Kansas City before a challenging set of games against the LA Dodgers, Philadelphia, Arizona, Atlanta, and Houston.

The Nationals score 4.10 runs per game (24th) and hit .263 (5th) with a .707 OPS (19th). They've hit 36 long balls (29th) and stolen 24 bases (27th) this year. The Washington pitching staff has compiled a 4.40 ERA (19th) and a 1.43 WHIP (25th) with 18 quality starts.

The rookie starter Irvin will take the hill for the Nats on Thursday afternoon. It's been a tale of two stories for the 6-foot-6 right-hander, as he surrendered just one earned run in his first two starts (10.1 IP) but unraveled in his next two appearances, giving up ten earned runs (7.1 IP). In his most recent outing against Detroit, he lasted only 2.2 innings, as the Tigers launched two early homers against him. Irvin sports a 15:12 K:BB ratio in 2023.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


I'm betting on Washington to cover the spread at plus odds. The Nats boast a 28-18 run line record (60.9%) as underdogs and a 21-10 record in games (67.7%) versus National League opponents. The Padres have a 13-17 run line record (43.3%) as favorites and a 19-20 run line record (48.7%) vs. NL opponents. At 30-18 overall, Washington's run line record is third-best in MLB this season.

The Padres have struggled on the road against right-handed pitchers — they're 0-4 SU in their last four road games vs. a right-handed starter — and their season splits vs. righties (.211 BA/.313 OBP/.361 SLG/.674 OPS) back that up. They have also struggled on the road (.209/.304/.365/.669 in 21 GP).

Snell isn't the pitcher he once was and is coming off another poor outing. He'll face a Washington lineup that sports impressive season splits vs. southpaws (.299/.359/.441/.800) and in day games (.287/.344/.417/.760).

With all that said, Washington +1.5 at +109 odds is my bet.

Prediction: Nationals RL (+1.5)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The under is 6-0 in the Padres' last six road games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-0 in their last four road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The under is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

I'm placing a wager on the under at 9.5 total runs scored in tomorrow's series finale. The Nationals score only 3.5 runs per game at home, and the Padres average 3.8 runs on the road. San Diego is also scoring 3.8 runs in day games this season. I don't expect Washington to score many runs against Snell, who has held seven of his nine opponents to three or fewer runs. The Padres will also struggle to reach five runs, given their lackluster splits vs. righties and in road games.

Prediction: Under 9.5

Written By Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.