Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#951 Miami Marlins 8.5 vs.
#952 Washington Nationals -135
Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 1:35pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala



#951 Miami
#952 Washington


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A pair of NL East rivals finish up their weekend set in the nation’s capital. The Miami Marlins are on the road as they play the final game of a three-game series against the Washington Nationals Sunday afternoon. Washington won a slugfest in the opening game of the series, taking a 12-10 victory on Friday night. In the middle game of the series Saturday, the Marlins sent Sandy Alcantara to the mound against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. First pitch in that contest was slated for 4:05 pm ET.

Miami Marlins Look to Pick Up Victory in Series Finale

Miami actually had solid offensive production in the opening game of the set but their pitching let them down. As a result, the Marlins saw their six-game win streak snapped and entered Saturday 12.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Miami got three hits from Jorge Alfaro (two runs, three RBI), including his seventh homer of the season. The Marlins also got homers from Curtis Granderson (his sixth) and Brian Anderson (his fifth) in the defeat. Pablo Lopez ended up with a no-decision as he allowed four runs on seven hits with one walk and one strikeout over 3.2 innings. Nick Anderson (0-1) took the loss as he allowed two runs on no hits with two walks and a strikeout over one inning of relief.

Caleb Smith makes his 10th start of the season for the Marlins in this contest. He comes in with a 3-1 record along with a 2.38 ERA, a 0.887 WHIP, 14 walks and 71 strikeouts over 53 innings of work this season. Smith didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Tuesday on the road against the Tigers. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in a game that Miami won 5-4 in 11 innings. Smith is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, five walks and 26 strikeouts over 17 innings in his last three starts. He won his lone career start against the Nationals, which came at home on April 19. In that contest, he threw six innings, allowing one run on five hits with no walks and eight strikeouts in a 3-2 Marlins triumph. Smith, in his 35th career appearance and 28th major league start, pitches at Nationals Park for the first time.

Washington Nationals Battling Injuries, Inconsistency

Washington snapped a five-game losing skid as their bats carried them to victory even with suspect pitching. The Nationals entered Saturday fourth in the NL East, 10 games behind the Phillies in the division race. Washington scored four times in the eighth inning to erase a 9-8 deficit and sent them to victory. Matt Adams (his fourth), Adam Eaton (his fifth), Anthony Rendon (his 10th) and Juan Soto (his eighth) each homered in the win. Kyle McGowin didn’t get a decision in his spot start: he allowed five runs on six hits with one walk and two strikeouts in four innings. Kyle Barraclough (1-1) took the win as he threw one inning, allowing no runs on two hits with no walks and two strikeouts. Sean Doolittle allowed a run on three hits in the ninth but picked up his ninth save of the year.

Erick Fedde steps in again for the injured Jeremy Hellickson as he makes his seventh appearance and second start of the season for the Nationals. He comes in with no record, a 2.87 ERA, a 1.021 WHIP, five walks and eight strikeouts over 15.1 innings of action. Fedde didn’t factor in the decision in his last outing, which was a start against the Mets Tuesday. He threw five innings, allowing one run on four hits with one walk and one strikeout in a game the Nationals dropped 6-5 in walk-off fashion. Fedde didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start against the Marlins, which came on the road on September 17, 2018. He threw 4.1 innings, allowing two runs on two hits with four walks and six strikeouts in an eventual 8-5 Nationals defeat. Fedde is 0-4 with a 6.40 ERA, a 1.578 WHIP, 16 walks and 36 strikeouts over 45 innings in 11 career appearances, eight starts, at Nationals Park.

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Insiders Status:


The Nationals are dealing with injuries to their lineup and their rotation, all of which have ramped up the pressure on manager Davey Martinez. The buzz is that, should things continue, we could see a massive sell-off before the trade deadline and Martinez would be out of a job. Fedde was decent against the Mets and gets the break of facing a mediocre Marlins’ lineup. Smith has been terrific and has been a real boost for the Marlins, who are putting together a decent young rotation. He has the ability to whiff guys in mass quantities. Look for Miami to come up with the victory in the finale here behind another strong outing from Smith.

Prediction: Miami Marlins

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


It’s hard to figure out how the Marlins somehow rung up six straight wins before losing in a slugfest on Friday night. On the bright side, Miami does get the benefit of throwing arguably their best starting pitcher and their most consistent arm here. Of course, the fact that the Marlins have struggled offensively is a major reason why the team is in the basement of the NL East. Washington is getting healthier in their lineup with Adams, Trea Turner and company coming back recently, but their pitching has fallen apart. Can the Nationals get a solid showing from Fedde here in the finale?

The over is 4-0 in Smith’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record, 4-0 in Smith’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 5-1 in Smith’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Washington has seen the over go 4-0 in their last four overall, 4-0 in their last four on grass, 4-0 in their last four against NL East foes and 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Washington: after seeing what took place in the opener, this one likely goes over as well.

Prediction: Over

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.