Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#955 Philadelphia Phillies 9.5 vs.
#956 Milwaukee Brewers -165
Sunday, May 26, 2019 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the conclusion of a weekend set between a pair of teams from the National League looking to maintain their standing in the playoff picture in Brew City. The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road as they close out a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia won the opening game of the series, taking a 6-4 victory on Friday night. The pitching matchup for the middle game of the series Saturday night saw Jake Arrieta take the mound for the Phillies against the Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin. First pitch in that contest was scheduled for 4:10 pm ET.

Philadelphia Phillies Try to Close Road Trip on Positive Note

Philadelphia won their second straight game as they took down the Brewers to maintain their hold in the NL East. The Phillies entered Saturday 1.5 games ahead of the Braves in the NL East race. Philadelphia got two hits from Andrew McCutchen (run, RBI), Rhys Hoskins (two runs, RBI, including his 12th homer), and Scott Kingery (run, RBI) in the victory. Jerad Eickhoff didn’t factor in the decision as he allowed four runs on five hits with one walk and one strikeout. Vince Velasquez (2-2) earned the win with two scoreless innings of relief while Hector Neris fanned the side in the ninth for his ninth save of the year.

Zach Eflin takes the hill for his 11th start of the year for the Phillies in this contest. He is 5-4 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.145 WHIP, 13 walks and 47 strikeouts over 62 innings of work this season. Eflin recorded a no-decision in his last start, which came Tuesday on the road against the Cubs. He threw six innings, allowing one run on six hits with four walks and two strikeouts in an eventual 3-2, walk-off, Philadelphia defeat. Eflin is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, six walks and 16 strikeouts over 20 innings in his last three starts. He is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA, a 1.063 WHIP, four walks and 22 strikeouts over 16 innings in his three career starts against the Brewers. Eflin won his lone career start at Miller Park, which came on June 16, 2018. In that contest, he allowed a run on three hits with a walk and six strikeouts over five innings in a 4-1 Phillies triumph.

Milwaukee Brewers Battling in Crowded NL Central Race

Milwaukee missed a chance to gain ground in the NL Central as they were upended in the opening game of the series. The Brewers entered Saturday 1.5 games behind Chicago in the NL Central race, leaving them in second place. Ryan Braun (run) and Yasmani Grandal (RBI) each had two hits in the loss for Milwaukee. Christian Yelich (his 20th) and Orlando Arcia (his fifth) each homered in a losing effort. Chase Anderson didn’t factor in the decision as he allowed three runs on six hits with no walks and four strikeouts over four innings. Freddy Peralta (2-2) took the loss as he allowed two runs on three hits with no walks and three strikeouts over two innings of relief.

Brandon Woodruff is in line to get the call for his 11th start of the year for the Brewers in this contest. He comes in 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA, a 1.225 WHIP, 17 walks and 65 strikeouts over 56.1 innings of work this season. Woodruff recorded a no-decision in his last start, which came last Sunday on the road against the Braves. He threw eight innings, allowing two runs on five hits with no walks and six strikeouts in a game the Brewers won 3-2 in 10 innings. Woodruff is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, five walks and 20 strikeouts over 20 innings in his last three starts. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, seven walks and eight strikeouts over 10 innings in two career starts against the Phillies. Woodruff is 5-3 with one save, a 4.88 ERA, a 1.336 WHIP, 24 walks and 82 strikeouts over 79.1 innings in 20 career appearances, 13 starts, at Miller Park.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Both teams have been pretty good in the first quarter-plus of the season and they’ve leaned on relative unknown quantities on the mound. Both Woodruff and Eflin have pitched brilliantly so far this season, which has been a boost for both teams. Each squad is in the middle of the pack in offensive categories with the Phillies having a slight edge on the mound. Milwaukee’s bullpen isn’t the same dominant one that we saw in 2018 and that could prove to be the difference in a close contest. Look for the Phillies to come up with a tight win here to close the series on a positive note.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies +148

Full-Game Total Pick

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Both starting pitchers were gone early in the opening game of the set, which means that the bullpens had a bigger load than anticipated. That may be an important factor in this contest as both managers may try to get a few more outs of their starters. Philadelphia had won two straight games entering Saturday as their offense plated 15 runs in those contests. The Brewers are hoping to get things back on track after losing four of six entering Saturday. Can Woodruff continue his hot start to the season and deliver a win in this contest?

The under is 9-1 in the Phillies’ last 10 on Sunday, 6-0 in Eflin’s last 6 Sunday starts, 6-1 in Eflin’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central teams and 5-1-1 in Eflin’s last 7 starts on grass. Milwaukee has seen the under go 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games and 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Both pitchers have been solid and even with the starters being chased early Friday, they still only went over this number by a run. With better arms here, this one falls under the number.

Prediction: Under 9

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.