Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#901 Arizona Diamondbacks vs.
#902 Miami Marlins
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:40pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Arizona Diamondbacks head to Miami to take on the Marlins in the first of a three-game set on Tuesday night. The D-Backs’ offense continues to shine and will have Riley Smith on the hill. The Marlins are in need of some wins and will have their best starter Sandy Alcantara start this one.

Smith Starts Opener After Loss to Padres

Riley Smith will get the call for the sixth time of the year on Tuesday. Smith wasn’t effective in his latest performance, conceding three runs in four innings to the Padres, leading to a 12-3 loss. The young right-hander had a few promising starts early in the season and owns a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP accompanied by a 1-1 record in 17 innings on the season. This will mark his first career meeting against the Marlins.

Arizona embarks on a three-game road trip after going 4-3 on their seven-game homestand which they concluded with a win over the Rockies on Sunday. The bats continue to dazzle and if they can find a way to improve the pitching they could be a legit threat. Arizona welcomes Tim LoCastro and Christian Walker back into the lineup in this game.

Watch for David Peralta who continues to produce at the plate, accumulating 11 hits and six RBI’s in his last eight games. The veteran slugger is having another tremendous season, posting a .300 average, 22 RBI’s along with an .868 OPS.

The Diamondbacks stand second in the big leagues with 5.36 runs on the season. The pitching staff enters with a poor 4.84 team ERA, pegging them 24th overall.

Alcantara Toss Gem in Win vs. Brewers, Marlins Open Homestand

Sandy Alcantara will get the nod for the seventh time of the season in this one. Alcantara was solid last time out, holding the Brewers to only two runs in five hits in seven innings, propelling a 6-2 win. The young right-hander has been very reliable this season, posting a 3.19 ERA and a terrific 0.98 WHIP accompanied by a 1-2 record in 36.2 innings pitched. He has allowed seven runs (six earned) in 11.2 career innings against the Diamondbacks.

Jesus Aguilar continues to dominate at the plate, clubbing six home runs in his last nine games overall. The veteran slugger is carrying the struggling Marlins offense, bashing six homers along with 23 RBI’s and a .958 OPS. Aguilar has tallied nine hits in that span. Miami continues to play without Brian Anderson, Starling Marte, and Jazz Chisholm.

Miami hasn’t been able to win games with consistency this season. To their defense, it’s been a road-heavy schedule with only 11 of their 27 games played at home. They return home after recording a 3-7 road trip including a sweep by the Nationals this past weekend.

The Marlins are only averaging 3.82 runs per game, placing them 26th overall. They own a 3.51 team ERA, good for seventh in the Major Leagues.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The Marlins are glad to return home after a long 10 game road trip and I expect them to rebound with a win. Miami's starter Sandy Alcantara has been tremendous, holding his opponent to two or fewer runs in back-to-back starts and he has led the Marlins to a win in three out of his last four performances.

Furthermore, the Diamondbacks are starting Riley Smith in this game. This is a pitcher the Marlins offense should be able to solve. The right-hander has allowed 10 runs in his 17 innings of work on the season.

Prediction: Miami Marlins -141

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

This will likely be a lower-scoring battle. Sandy Alcantara is pitching deep into games which is why I really like the under. He has lasted at least six innings in six of his seven starts and the Marlins bullpen owns a solid 3.71 ERA on the season. The under is also 4-0 in the Marlins’ last four games following a road trip of seven or more days.

In addition, while Miami should score four or five runs I don’t expect a big number considering the offense has been very inconsistent and have tallied four or fewer runs in four out of their last five games overall.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

The over on the Marlins team total is a solid prop bet. The D-Backs will give up runs. They have squandered an average of seven runs in their last five clashes overall. The bullpen is an issue, ranking 25th with a 4.93 ERA on the season. While the Marlins had trouble offensively this past weekend they were able to score 16 runs in three games in Milwaukee last week.

Prediction: Marlins Team Total Over 3.5

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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Rating:

I am staying with the under on the three-inning total. Alcantara has only conceded one run in the first inning and a cumulative 3.00 ERA through innings 1-3. Also, Miami has big issues scoring early in games, posting only a combined 24 runs in the first three innings this season.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Under 1.5
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.