Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#917 Detroit Tigers vs.
#918 Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s a battle of American League teams as they kick off a series in Beantown with the Green Monster looming in the background. The Detroit Tigers are on the road as they open up a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox Tuesday night. Detroit was swept in a three-game series on the road against the Yankees as they were blanked 2-0 in the finale Sunday afternoon. Boston dropped three of four on the road against the Rangers as they were defeated 5-3 in the finale Sunday afternoon in their most recent game. The Red Sox won the season series in 2019 by a 5-2 margin and swept a three-game set on the road the last time the teams met July 5-7, 2019.

Detroit Tigers Hoping to Snap Slide

Detroit dropped their fifth straight as they were swept by the Yankees on the road and have been blanked three times in that stretch. The Tigers entered Monday in the basement of the AL Central, 9.5 games behind the Royals for the top spot in the division. In Sunday’s game, Detroit mustered only two hits in the contest as Jeimer Candelario and JaCoby Jones each singled. The Tigers were zero for two with runners in scoring position in the contest and wasted a solid outing on the mound. Jose Urena (1-4) took the loss as he threw seven innings, allowing two runs on three hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.

Michael Fulmer is expected to make his eighth appearance and fourth start of the season for the Tigers in this contest. He comes in 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.048 WHIP, six walks and 20 strikeouts over 21 innings of work this season. Fulmer didn’t factor in the decision in his last outing, which came in relief against the White Sox in the nightcap of a doubleheader Thursday night on the road. He threw two innings, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts in an 11-0 Tigers loss. As a starter this season, Fulmer is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, four walks and seven strikeouts over 12 innings of work. Fulmer makes his fourth career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.241 WHIP, three walks and eight strikeouts over 19.1 innings in those outings. Fulmer didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start at Fenway Park, which came July 27, 2016. He threw 7.2 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with no walks and three strikeouts in a game the Tigers went on to win 4-3.

Boston Red Sox Look to Regroup at Home

Boston dropped three of four on the road to Texas and look to get back into the win column as they return home. The Red Sox entered Monday holding a 1.5-game advantage over Toronto in the AL East race. Boston led 3-1 after six and a half innings Sunday but allowed one in the seventh and three in the eighth to wind up with the loss. The Red Sox got three hits from Xander Bogaerts (two runs, RBI), including his fifth homer of the year, while Alex Verdugo had a pair in the loss. Garrett Richards didn’t factor in the decision as he threw five innings, allowing one run on four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts. Adam Ottavino (2-2) took the loss in relief as he allowed three runs (two earned) on one hit with two walks and no strikeouts in two-thirds of an inning.

Nick Pivetta is in line to take the ball for the Red Sox in this contest as he logs his sixth start of the year. He comes in 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.247 WHIP, 17 walks and 25 strikeouts over 25.2 innings of work on the year. Pivetta earned the win in his last start, which came on the road against the Mets Wednesday night. He threw five scoreless innings, allowing one hit with three walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Red Sox won 1-0. In his last three starts, Pivetta is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, 10 walks and 14 strikeouts over 14.2 innings of work. Pivetta didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career appearance against the Tigers, which came in relief with the Phillies on July 23, 2021 on the road. He threw 3.2 scoreless innings, allowing one hit with one walk and five strikeouts in a game the Phillies went on to win 3-2 in 15 innings. Pivetta is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, a 1.271 WHIP, 14 walks and 19 strikeouts over 19.2 innings in four career starts at Fenway Park.

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Both teams are coming in off a rough weekend with the Tigers getting swept and the Red Sox dropping three of four. That’s where the similarities end as Detroit is in free fall with five straight losses and sit in the basement of the AL Central. Boston still leads the AL East despite the rough weekend but they have the power in their lineup to make up for their shortcomings. The fact remains that Pivetta has been pretty solid in the early going this season to help the Red Sox rotation. Fulmer has been decent but has split his time between the pen and the rotation so he’s not fully stretched out. Give the advantage to Boston thanks to their lineup, especially playing at home.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Detroit has seen the under post an 18-10-1 mark in their games on the year entering Monday. The Tigers are last in the majors offensively as they average 2.72 runs per contest. Detroit is 24th in run prevention by allowing 4.86 runs per game, giving them an average total of 7.58 runs per contest. Boston has seen the under post a 15-14 mark this season entering Monday. The Red Sox are eighth in the majors by averaging 4.76 runs per contest while they are tied for 12th by allowing an average of 4.07 runs a night. That gives Boston an average total of 8.83 runs per contest this season. With Detroit being shut out in three of their last five games, this one ends up falling short of the total.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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