Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#915 Houston Astros vs.
#916 New York Yankees
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the start of an early-week set between a pair of American League powers in the Bronx. The Houston Astros are on the road as they open up a three-game series with the New York Yankees Tuesday night. Houston dropped the finale of their three-game road set at Tampa Bay as they fell 5-4 Sunday to miss a chance at a sweep. New York capped off a three-game sweep of Detroit at home as they earned a 2-0 victory Sunday afternoon. These teams haven’t met since 2019 due to last season’s shortened season and geographically condensed schedules. The Astros took a 4-3 edge in the season series that season though the Yankees took three of four at home in the most recent series June 20-23, 2019.

Houston Astros Trying to Earn Road Win to Start Series

Houston lost for just the second time in their last seven games as they were dropped in the finale of their three-game road set with the Rays Sunday. The Astros entered Monday third in the AL West, 1.5 games behind the A’s for the top spot in the division. Against Tampa Bay Sunday, Houston let leads of 3-0 and 4-3 slip away to wind up with the defeat. Yordan Alvarez (two runs, RBI), Kyle Tucker (run) and Myles Straw (run, RBI) each had two hits in the contest for the Astros. Cristian Javier threw five innings, allowing three runs on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts but didn’t factor in the decision. Brooks Raley (0-1) took the loss as he allowed one run (none earned) on one hit with no walks or strikeouts in one-third of an inning of relief.

Zack Greinke gets the ball for his seventh start of the season for the Astros in this contest. He comes in 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.145 WHIP, six walks and 27 strikeouts over 36.2 innings of work this season. Greinke didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Wednesday at home against Seattle. He threw four innings, allowing four runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts in a game the Astros went on to win 7-5. In his last three starts, Greinke is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, two walks and 17 strikeouts over 19 innings of work. Greinke makes his 16th career appearance and 13th start against the Yankees in this contest. He is 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA, a 1.332 WHIP, 27 walks and 55 strikeouts over 71.1 innings of work. Greinke is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA, a 1.857 WHIP, six walks and seven strikeouts over seven innings in two career starts at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Try to Maintain Momentum

New York won their third straight and fifth in the last six games as they took care of business against the Tigers over the weekend. The Yankees entered Monday third in the AL East, 2.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top spot in the division. New York finished with only three hits in the game but came up with the victory thanks to a well-pitched outing. The Yankees got RBIs from Brett Gardner and Kyle Higashioka to earn the victory. Corey Kluber (2-2) turned in a stellar outing, tossing eight scoreless frames, allowing two hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts, to earn the win. Aroldis Chapman fanned a pair in a 1-2-3 ninth inning to earn his sixth save.

Domingo German takes the ball for his fifth start of the year for the Yankees in this contest. He comes in 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, four walks and 19 strikeouts over 20 innings of work this season. German earned the win in his last start, which came against Baltimore on the road Wednesday. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits with one walk and six strikeouts in a 7-0 Yankees win. In his last three starts, German is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, three walks and 17 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. German makes his fourth career appearance and second start against the Astros in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.371 WHIP, three walks and 12 strikeouts over 11.2 innings of work. German is 10-6 with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.117 WHIP, 44 walks and 145 strikeouts over 120 innings in 27 career appearances, 18 starts, at Yankee Stadium.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


This one is a matchup between teams that have some momentum of late with solid stretches of play. The Astros have won five of seven while the Yankees have taken five of their last six. Houston has been up and down all season though, making it difficult to know when things are going to pivot the other way again. Greinke has struggled against the Yankees in his career and at Yankee Stadium. German has turned in two straight victories after dropping his first two starts of the year. With the Yankees starting to look like the team everyone expected, you have to lean their way here, especially playing at home.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Houston entered Monday having seen the over post a 15-12-1 mark this season. The Astros are fifth in the majors by averaging 4.93 runs per contest this season. Houston is 7th in run prevention by allowing an average of 3.79 runs per game, giving them an average total of 8.72 runs per contest. New York has seen the under post a 18-10 mark on the season entering Monday’s action. The Yankees are a dismal 24th in offensive production as they muster only 3.93 runs per contest. New York is second in run prevention by allowing only 3.43 runs per game this year. That gives the average total for the Yankees at 7.36 runs per game entering Monday’s action. With the way the Yankees have pitched of late and their offensive struggles, this one ends up short of the mark.

Prediction: Under

Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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