Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2953 Arizona Diamondbacks vs.
#2954 Miami Marlins
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:40pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the continuation of a pair of National League teams on the diamond down in the Sunshine State. The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the road as they play the middle game of a three-game set with the Miami Marlins Wednesday night. Arizona took three of four at home from the Rockies over the weekend, winning the finale of the set 8-4 on Sunday afternoon. Miami was swept on the road by the Nationals as they dropped the finale by a 3-1 margin Sunday afternoon. The pitching matchup for the opening game of the set Tuesday night saw Riley Smith take the mound for the Diamondbacks against the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. First pitch from Marlins Park was scheduled for 7:05 pm ET.

Arizona Diamondbacks Looking to Maintain Momentum

Arizona won three of four from Colorado at home and entered Tuesday winners of 10 of their previous 13 games after starting the year 5-10. The Diamondbacks entered Tuesday fourth in the NL West, two games behind the Giants for the top spot in the division race. On Sunday, Arizona got two hits each from David Peralta (run) and Daulton Varsho (two runs, RBI) while Pavin Smith hit his third homer of the year. The Diamondbacks scored four times in the bottom of the eighth to break a 4-4 tie to earn the win. Merrill Kelly didn’t factor in the decision as he threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits with two walks and six strikeouts. Chris Devenski (1-0) blew the save as he allowed two runs on three hits with no walks and two strikeouts in one inning of work but earned the win.

Luke Weaver takes the mound for his sixth start of the season for the Diamondbacks in this contest. He is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA, a 1.286 WHIP, nine walks and 23 strikeouts over 25.2 innings of work this season. Weaver didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Thursday at home against the Rockies. He threw four innings, allowing three runs on five hits with four walks and four strikeouts in a 5-3 Diamondbacks win. In his last three starts, Weaver is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA, a 2.08 WHIP, eight walks and 12 strikeouts over 13 innings of work. Weaver makes his fourth career appearance and second start against the Marlins in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 2.00 ERA, a 1.222 WHIP, one walk and seven strikeouts over nine innings of work against them. Weaver took the loss in his lone career outing at Marlins Park, which was a start with the Cardinals on August 6, 2018. He threw six innings, allowing two runs on seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 2-1 Cardinals loss.

Miami Marlins Hope to Earn Home Wins After Rough Road Swing

Miami was swept by Washington on the road over the weekend to finish a 10-game road trip with a 3-7 mark. The Marlins entered Tuesday in the basement of the NL East, 2.5 games behind the Nationals for the top spot in the division. Against Washington Sunday, the Marlins finished with only five hits with Isan Diaz (run, RBI) having a pair of them in the contest. Diaz accounted for Miami’s offense with his first homer of the year leading off the ninth inning. Trevor Rogers (3-2) took the loss on the mound for Miami. He allowed three runs on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts over five innings of work.

Pablo Lopez is on the mound to make his seventh start of the season for the Marlins in this contest. He comes in 0-2 with a 2.34 ERA, a 1.096 WHIP, 10 walks and 34 strikeouts over 34.2 innings of work this season. Lopez didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came on the road against the Nationals Friday. He threw seven scoreless frames, allowing six hits with two walks and two strikeouts in a game the Marlins lost 2-1 in 10 innings. In his last three starts, Lopez is 0-1 with a 0.47 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, five walks and 18 strikeouts over 19 innings of work. Lopez didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks, which came on the road on September 16, 2019. He threw five innings, allowing three runs on five hits with no walks and six strikeouts in a game the Marlins eventually dropped 7-5. Lopez is 7-9 with a 3.01 ERA, a 1.118 WHIP, 39 walks and 131 strikeouts over 149.1 innings in 25 career starts at Marlins Park.

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Lopez has pitched well this season but doesn’t have anything to show for his work. He shut out the Nationals for seven innings in his last outing but ended up with a no-decision as his team failed to generate any offense either. On the flip side, the Diamondbacks have been hot of late but Weaver has struggled. An ERA over seven in his last three starts with control issues have tempered his expectations for the time being. Arizona may be rolling but Weaver is sputtering. With a 0-2 record with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season, you have to fade Arizona slightly with him on the bump. Give the slight edge to the Marlins in this contest.

Prediction: Miami Marlins -145

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Arizona comes into this game having seen the over hit in 16 of their 28 games on the season going into Tuesday’s action. The Diamondbacks are second in the majors as they average 5.36 runs per game going into Tuesday night. Arizona was 26th in run prevention as they allowed an average of 5.14 runs per contest this year, giving them an average total of 10.50 runs per game. Miami entered Tuesday with the under posting a 12-12-3 mark on the season. The Marlins are 21st in runs per game with 3.96 runs a night though they have been much better on the road (4.31 runs per game) than at home (3.45 runs per game) when it comes to putting runs on the board. Miami stands 7th in run prevention as they give up an average of 3.81 runs per contest, giving them an average total of 7.77 runs per contest on the year. The Marlins have pitched well though their bats have struggled. This one ends up falling short of the mark when all is said and done.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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