Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#903 Arizona Diamondbacks 9 vs.
#904 Philadelphia Phillies -125
Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the three-game series finale Wednesday night from Citizens Bank Park. The Diamondbacks will give the starting call to 30-year old right-hander Merrill Kelly, and 25-year old right-hander Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Phillies. The D-Backs registered a 13-8 in Monday’s series opener, followed by a 7-4 win on Tuesday night.

Rookie Merrill Kelly Targets Third Straight Win

Merrill Kelly will make his 14th start of the season, targeting his third straight win. Kelly was outstanding in his previous start, limiting the Blue Jays to only one run in seven innings, leading to the win to even his record at 6-6. The rookie right-hander has only allowed two runs in his last two starts, and he is having a solid year in his first chance in the big leagues, recording a 4.12 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 74.1 innings of work. This will mark his first career meeting against the Phillies. Kelly has only issued a combined three walks in his last three starts.

David Peralta has given the D-Backs’ lineup a boost upon returning from the IL, collecting seven hits and six RBI’s in his last five games. The 31-year old right fielder is having a terrific season, registering a .300 average with nine home runs and 36 RBI’s. Peralta feasted on the Phillies last season, going 14 for 27 with three home runs and nine RBI’s. The D-Backs are expecting to have Jake Lamb back in the lineup in late June, and Nick Ahmed is questionable for this one.

The Diamondbacks are scoring an average of 5.30 runs on the season, ranking them fourth in the big leagues. The Arizona pitching staff owns a 4.07 team ERA, good for ninth in the Majors Leagues. The D-Backs feature a strong 21-16 road record entering Tuesday’s action.

Zach Eflin Improves to 6-5 in Win Against Reds

Zach Eflin will get the nod for the 13th time of the year, eyeing his second straight victory. Eflin was terrific in his previous start, limiting the Reds to only two runs (one earned) in 6.1 innings in a 4-2 victory. The young right-hander is having a breakout season, registering a stifling 2.88 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP paired with a 6-5 record in 72 innings of action. Eflin has conceded six runs (five earned) in 11.2 career innings against the D-Backs.

Phillies’ leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez enjoyed success against the D-Backs’ pitching last season, collecting 10 hits in 25 at-bats with one RBI. The 29-year old second baseman has cooled off at the plate recently, hitting only .118 with one RBI on the month. Overall, Hernandez is having a solid season, posting a .270 average with six homers and 29 RBI’s. Andrew McCutchen is out for the season, and Odubel Herrera remains out indefinitely.

The Phillies are scoring an average of 4.91 runs on the year, ranking them 13th in the big leagues. The Philadelphia pitching is looking good, recording a 4.30 team ERA, placing them 13th in the Majors. The Phillies are outstanding at home where they feature a 22-13 record heading into Tuesday’s play.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Rating:

I am taking the Phillies in this one. The Phillies are a lock with Eflin on the hill pitching at home. Eflin features a 4-1 home record with a dazzling 2.10 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, and the Phillies are tough to beat at home where they feature a 22-13 record.

Furthermore, while Arizona has won each of their last four road games entering Tuesday, three of those wins occurred against a terrible Blue Jays team. D-Backs’ starter Merrill Kelly struggles on the road where he holds a 3-4 record and a very poor 6.00 ERA, and I expect the veteran Phillies lineup to get to the rookie.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Full-Game Total Pick

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The under is a strong play in this particular matchup. While the Phillies should do enough against D-Backs’ starter Merrill Kelly to get the win, the rookie right-hander is feeling confident after limiting both the Mets and Blue Jays to one run each in his last two starts spanning 14 innings, plus the under is 4-1 in Kelly’s last five starts overall.

In addition, Zach Eflin posted a stellar 2.64 ERA last month, and he limited the Reds to one run in 6.1 innings in his first start of June, so I can’t see Arizona solving him. The under is 5-1 in Eflin’s last six home starts and I expect that trend to continue in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I am taking Zach Eflin to record the win offered by PointsBet. Zach Eflin was awarded the win in four of his five home starts on the season. This trend was present last season as well as he went 8-3 on his home field. The right-hander has limited his opponents to just one run in three out of his last four home starts.

Prediction: Zach Eflin to Record the Win

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am opting with the under on the three-inning total. Both teams have their most productive stretch in innings 4-6. I expect a low-scoring game throughout the entire game considering the performance of both starters. I especially expect very little offense in the first three innings as both teams are more productive the second time through the order.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.