Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2955 Atlanta Braves vs.
#2956 Miami Marlins
Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Atlanta Braves will travel to Marlins Park on Saturday afternoon for a National League East series clash versus the Miami Marlins.

The Braves enter the series four games back in the division race with a 29-31 overall record after a disappointing series loss on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies. Meanwhile, the Marlins are trying to battle their way out of the bottom of the NL East standings after dropping seven of their last 10 contests. Miami has won just 27 of its first 62 games but the Marlins own a winning 14-13 record in 27 games at Marlins Park.

Can Miami continue to climb back towards the .500-mark with a win at home against the Braves on Saturday afternoon?

Fried seeks first career win against Marlins

Left-handed ace Max Fried is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Braves in Miami on Saturday. Fried has endured a slow start to the 2021 season, going 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA over his first nine outings. After getting knocked around in his first start of the month, Fried went back to work on Sunday, allowing just one run in six frames in a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since returning from the injured list in mid-May, the Braves’ lefty has pitched well, posting a strong 2.41 ERA over his last six starts. During that span, Fried has allowed one run or fewer five times while striking out 31 batters and walking just 11 in 33 ⅔ combined frames.

Despite some poor season-long numbers Fried has posted strong peripherals so far this season. He’s still missing bats at a high rate, striking out better than a batter per inning with a walk rate of only eight percent. However, the 27-year-old has endured some bad luck on the mound in 2021. While his ground ball rate is down nearly 10 percent, he’s given up a career-worst .348 BABIP in 44 ⅔ innings of work. The Braves’ lefty has also just 69.9 percent of his baserunners, also a career-low mark.

Fried is pitching in his fifth season in Atlanta but he’s never beaten the Marlins. In seven career starts against Miami, the Braves’ ace owns a 0-2 record to go along with a 6.53 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Per Baseball Savant, current Marlins are hitting .356 in 51 plate appearances off of Fried ahead of Saturday’s start.

No extension talks between Marlins and Marte

Miami’s perpetual slide down the NL East standings has opened up some options for the organization at the trade deadline. The Marlins have several veterans that could add some value to a potential team looking to contend for a postseason spot. Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson, and Starling Marte among the candidates that could be moved before the trade deadline. Marte, whose contract is up at the end of the season, is the most likely candidate to move. There have reportedly been no extension talks between the Marlins and Marte, who is batting a team-best .360 in 27 games this season.

Marte recently turned from the injured list to give Miami’s offense a much-needed boost. The Marlins enter this series ranked 24th in the MLB in runs scored and 26th in home runs through 62 games.

Miami has yet to announce a starter for Saturday’s contest.

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After a pair of walk-off losses to the Phillies, the Braves need to find a way to get back on the winning track in Miami. While Fried has struggled against the Marlins in his career, he owns a lifetime-2.70 ERA in 16 ⅔ career frames at Marlins Park. He’s also been turning his season around over the last month, so this looks like a good spot to buy low on the Braves here. Miami has put together a few wins over the last week but the Marlins have still scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 13 games.  Take the Braves to cover the run line on the road in this NL East battle in Miami on Saturday.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves ML

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After a long spell on offense, Miami has started to heat up at the plate over the last few games. The Marlins totaled 20 runs in their three games against the Rockies and also have some solid numbers off of Fried, who owns a career 6.43 ERA in seven starts against Miami ahead of Saturday’s start. Meanwhile, the Braves are due for a bounce-back effort after a quiet few games at the dish. Atlanta has been a top-10 offense in terms of runs scored this season. Take the over in this NL East battle on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.